happybadger [he/him]
Chapotraphouse::: spoiler spoiler Under pressure from Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Trump administration may be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran. The target would be Pickax Mountain in central Iran, where Israeli intelligence claims the Iranian government has restarted its nuclear enrichment program. No conventional weapon in the American arsenal can penetrate 300 feet of solid granite to destroy the tunnels where enrichment is supposedly taking place. The only military option is a nuclear strike. Netanyahu has been pushing hard for one. “Bibi calls Trump about it every day,” says an informed observer.
Netanyahu is cornered and desperate. After last week’s election results, he can’t form a government unless Trump intervenes directly in Israeli politics and brokers a deal with other parties that gives Netanyahu 61 seats in the Knesset. Otherwise, he is out as prime minister and on his way to ignominy, investigations and possibly jail. Netanyahu must stay close to Trump. He needs this war.
To that end, he’s applied maximum pressure to his closest allies in the administration, including Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper. Both oppose a negotiated settlement to the war they’ve so grievously mismanaged; both are pushing to restart major combat operations. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA director John Ratcliffe are also following Netanyahu’s lead, as are leaders of the Democratic Party. In a recent meeting on the subject, former president Barack Obama said he opposes the current Iran peace deal being drafted in Doha.
The rest of America’s longtime allies in the Middle East are terrified by the prospect of more war. On September 27th, Netanyahu flew secretly to Abu Dhabi to enlist the UAE in his lobbying effort for a final attack on Iran. The Emiratis refused. After eight months of conflict, Gulf economies are teetering. So are global energy and fertilizer markets. They won’t recover soon. Globally, there are a total of about 850 supertankers used to transport oil from producers to the rest of the world. In October alone, 11 of them were badly damaged in Hormuz. At this pace, a global depression is imminent. A nuclear strike would radically accelerate the destruction. Fallout from a ground explosion at Pickax Mountain would contaminate the Persian Gulf, poisoning the water supply for 100 million people.
And those are just some of the immediate consequences for the region. The rest of the world is every bit as exposed. No country other than the United States has ever used a nuclear weapon in war. Some would like to. An American nuclear attack on Iran would set a new precedent. The Russians have already told at least two other governments that an American nuclear strike on Iran would free them to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Pakistan and India would be tempted to do the same against each other, as would North Korea against Seoul. After the first nuclear strike, World War Three is inevitable. That war would be short and final.
We’ve been sleepwalking toward this moment for months. Since February, the administration has quietly rewritten America’s nuclear doctrine to make first use of so-called “battlefield nukes” easier and therefore more likely. No one in Washington in either party seems bothered by this. Now we’re on the brink of it.
Close observers say Trump is likely to decide by next weekend whether or not to use nuclear weapons. That would be November 7, six days from now. To his credit, he’s hesitating. At the moment, Trump is listening to his vice president, JD Vance, and to his envoy and friend Steve Witkoff, both of whom argue a deal with Iran can be made.
They’re right, though it won’t be simple. The Iranians are famously frustrating to negotiate with under any circumstances, and elements of that government have become more radical since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his family were killed in February. After decades of isolation, even relatively moderate Iranian leaders seem confused by how decisions are made in the West. (There is a widespread belief in Tehran, for example, that the United States government controls Israel.) But overall, people who have spoken to decision-makers in Iran say there is consensus there that more war is bad for everyone and a deal is worth making.
One group that hasn’t been consulted so far is the global population — the hundreds of millions of people who will be killed along with their children if Trump is pushed by Netanyahu into launching a nuclear strike next week. Now would be the time for them to speak up.
6:47 PM · Nov 1, 2026 · 43.5M Views :::
https://archive.is/nycv6
If Iran is just a mountain why hasn't the US drilled a bunch of little holes and filled them with water? Are they stupid?
This feels like the 6th time we've been "days away" from nuking Iran in the past year. Not to say it couldn't happen but I have my doubts.
It's also been an escalation trap where he's learning that nothing else works and he loses if he can't force a win by the time the new congress starts. I think this coming week is the most dangerous point of uncertainty since the early days of the war.
In a recent meeting on the subject, former president Barack Obama said he opposes the current Iran peace deal being drafted in Doha.
Absolute piece of utter garbage
The Russians have already told at least two other governments that an American nuclear strike on Iran would free them to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine.
Possible but I'm still doubtful
Pakistan and India would be tempted to do the same against each other
They don't like each other but I don't believe they'd actually start open nuclear war against each other
as would North Korea against Seoul
lol, nope
The Iranians are famously frustrating to negotiate with under any circumstances
I'm sorry, the IRANIANS are famously frustrating to negotiate with?! They've been entirely reasonable this whole time!
since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his family were killed in February
*murdered
After decades of isolation, even relatively moderate Iranian leaders seem confused by how decisions are made in the West.
Any leader insistent on pushing for peace with America, even at this point, is entirely delusional
Iran is confused about negotiations with America because the negotiations will happen, Iran states their terms, America agrees and then the press hears about the terms, then America will get mad at the press and denies the negotiations ever happened and then pull out of the deals
Anyone would find that confusing
nuking somebody on the other side of the planet and nuking your neighbor are petty different.
Pakistan and India would be tempted to do the same against each other
They don't like each other but I don't believe they'd actually start open nuclear war against each other
I keep thinking about that brief conflict last year. Two nuclear powers in direct conventional combat is something that I don't think we've seen before. (Thought I'm willing to be corrected if I'm wrong of course.) I'm not sure what's more worrying, that we may have come close to seeing nuclear war, or that nuclear weapons aren't the deterrents we've always assumed them to be.
Either it happens and he’s right or it doesn’t happen and he takes responsibility for avoiding it
That's just as plausible with him. Tucker perpetually has the face and mentality of a child who knows a secret youuuuuuu donn'ttttttt knowwwwww.
I think if Trump did use a small nuke it would also open up the possibility of Israel using a larger nuke right after once the seal has been broken, especially if the smaller US nuke didn’t end up meaningfully changing the paradigm. That would also be suicidal but I wouldn’t put it past Netanyahu
Always two there are. No more, no less. A Fat Man and a Little Boy.
"The missiles are flying. Hallelujah, Hallelujah!"
Damn what episode of West Wing is this
Doctors need to be allowed to have a cleaver on hand in the delivery room in case they ever encounter a Final Destination/Dead Zone baby like DJT
What if Tucker Carlson is actually planning to nuke Iran himself and this is step one of the frame job?
can't believe tucker got a nuke before iran
Looking into this.
"hundreds of millions of people who will be killed along with their children" Even now he has to assert that children are property not people.
strange detail that he didn't mention the real estate and stock portfolios would also be killed.
These wouldn't be large nuclear weapons, just small warheads within a heavy housing that is designed to smash into the ground as deeply as possible before detonating.
You don't technically have to penetrate the bunker facility to do immense damage to it - if you vibrate a sealed concrete container full of humans, you can turn them into a smooth paste without having to destroy the container, like mixing a can of paint. To prevent this, Iran will have put the fragile enrichment equipment into rooms which are resting on dampening springs, like an earthquake resistant building. I don't think there's any one super-bomb the US can use - they'd just have to keep hitting it with small earth-penetrating nukes until the mountain progressively fractured and the facility progressively crumbled.
Assuredly, no matter the result, when the world detects radiation emission, the US will say it's because they destroyed the target, not because of the bombs. They might even try to say they used a regular bomb and any nuclear emissions are purely from Iranian material.
no matter the result, when the world detects radiation emission, the US will say it's because they destroyed the target, not because of the bombs. They might even try to say they used a regular bomb and any nuclear emissions are purely from Iranian material.
I think you're right, but I also think even in that case there's a real chance Trump just goes off script and says he used nukes on TV
Right-wing grifter with a 20+ year record of lying as much as he wants to fuck green M&Ms:
Even the possibility of it is staggering. Death to the US. They are the liability the whole world can't afford.
Like most burger brains will be like oh whatever if tactical nukes are used but what they don't understand or care about if this opens a whole new front to warfare across the globe.
Everyone who knew Iran is basically a mountain fortress of a nation could see this coming. They've also been sacking higher up generals recently. No one can tell me Trump and Kegseth wouldn't get off on using nukes.
posadists gonna be eating good next year
This isn't to say that Tucker is a reliable narrator. I'm posting it in addition to the statement by democratic senator Chris Murphy a couple days ago where he had reviewed Trump's plan and said it was "insane" and would "undermine the rule of law". My takeaway then was that it was going to be a limited land invasion or tactical nuke against some hardened target. Tucker's post isn't his usual conspiratorial or antisemitic shit, but the kind of sentiments I've heard echoed by more reasonable people like Mohammad Marandi in recent weeks. I think that's enough to add weight to Murphy's claim.
I think it's the more plausible of the two potential escalations. The footage of a big explosion destroying a mountain is going to look cool to Trump and his base of rabid hogs. The footage of Iranian drones raining down on marines doing Paedophile Normandy, that would look really bad to him. Trump will at least be able to spin this into holding the world hostage and asserting presidential control over the military. I don't think it will work militarily and would almost certainly lead to some kind of regional radiological war against civilian targets within a week, but it's the only political option that isn't outright surrender or immediately losing the invasion fleet with the world watching.
edit: Also I have nowhere else to put this but I googled Marandi to make sure I was spelling his name correctly and just learned this from his wikipedia page-
Following the death of U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham in July 2026, Marandi said: "It's a shame. I wanted him to see oil prices on Monday before he went to hell."
lol, lmao, heehaw like a donkey
Paedophile Normandy
P-Day
Tucker's a CIA asset, he knows he wouldn't get away with calling a nuclear strike pre-emptively. The only way this is real is if he wants to get heart attack gunned.
Unless this info was given to him by the CIA. It’s pretty clear the intelligence agencies don’t like Trump, and were against the Iran war because they correctly understood we would lose
True, or this could be part of chest puffing and putting up a threat display against Iran.
idk, maybe i just reach for explanantions why Iran is not getting nuked, but i really really really want this to be fake, the entire scenario is so damn bleak.
I think it's the more plausible of the two potential escalations. The footage of a big explosion destroying a mountain is going to look cool to Trump and his base of rabid hogs.
Trump does seem to really love the boom. During Trump 1.0 - the US military dropped a MOAB on Afghanistan. I assumed they did that to jangle keys in front of President Baby Trump because he was considering doing something crazy.
The MOAB use is a big reason why I think he'd do it. Same with things like the piracy and Caribbean sea murders. Trump is stuck in that 2001-2003 Bush mindset where spectacle wins war. It doesn't matter if it achieves nothing. If it harms the US, 𝒿𝓊𝓈𝓉 𝓁𝒾𝑒 𝒶𝒷𝑜𝓊𝓉 𝒾𝓉. I doubt the military leadership would actually resist and it probably means nothing to any pilot who'd otherwise be bombing a school, so there's no institutional barrier to it and liberals are too drunk on jingoism to even consider Nuremburg trials against precious baby soldiers in the aftermath.
To him it's the same kind of calculus as the Hiroshima bombing but on a faulty premise that Iran is materially 1945 Japan. He's destroyed 90% of their air force and navy every week for the past 9 months. Their economy is completely destroyed and their soldiers are down to rice rations in caves. Tokyo is in ruins along with any other surface evidence of a functioning country. Surely showing them we have two bombs will make them surrender because we might have three.
But realistically Iran is like if 1942 Japan had anime weapons and the entire Pacific Ocean was within range of their small arms. If they duct tape an xray machine to a $20k shahed drone, that's a radiological weapon that can hit any gulf state after the US spends $10m failing to shoot it down. Shooting it down only irradiates a different gulf state. Their launch systems potentially include every small cargo truck in the region, every patch of sand in a gigantic desert, and every mountain in a country that's half mountains. Hitting one missile city thinking it will be a bloodless Hiroshima is going to backfire so hard so fast.
Wait, would an x-ray machine on a Shahed actually work?
They'd just need the little container inside with the isotopes. Shaheds already routinely attack targets around the region including military bases. That's a radiological weapon though, not a nuclear weapon. You're only irradiating the area with a conventional explosion and not causing a nuclear reaction.
edit: I do however want them to use the full xray machine. That's going to be a great emoji like
X-ray machines do not use radioactive isotopes to produce x-rays. You can use radioactive isotopes for imaging like in nuclear medicine but that's not x-rays.
X-rays are produced using a high voltage (kilovolts) electron beam, in a vacuum tube, striking a (usually) tungsten anode.
I guess you could maybe attach one to a drone if it could carry enough weight.
The mobile x-ray machines I work with are about 300kg but there are smaller hand portable ones.
The main issue is that this would be a massive waste of time because the only damage would be a slight increase in the lifetime risk of cancer...unless you used the drone plus 300kg x-ray machine as a kinetic projectile I guess.
Source: I am a radiographer.
weird political compass but ok
It’s all a market play.
Yankee cowboy war 2: atomic boogaloo
Do it piss bucket. I'd like to see you try.
All talk and no walk, that's what I say!
