Image is a map of the approximate state of play of the military situation in Yemen, with the main focus being to cut off PLC access to Taizz (in the north of the salient). This map is from @bonzerbarry on Twitter (I would link to him directly but xcancel is down), who I recommend for coverage of the situation in the Middle East in general, and Yemen in particular.
My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.
::: spoiler preamble As I said in last week's preamble, it remains comically unclear what's truly happening in the strait. The main data point supporting oil tanker movements in the Strait being sufficient for oil flows to be completely restored are a few "independent trackers" including the big kahuna, Kpler, reporting on mostly recovered oil flows. The main data points that contradict this are: 1) satellite evidence of increasing strikes on tankers by Iran, as well as Ansarallah strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure; 2) a 1000% increase in the cost to hire a supertanker out of Hormuz compared to pre-war; 3) elevated and/or rising crack spreads; 4) elevated and/or rising diesel and gas costs in various countries around the world; 5) the new 40M SPR release by the US and the EU emergency diesel release as they bend the knee to the threat by the US to ban diesel exports; 6) PetroChina banning October export cargos to try and prevent domestic supplies from falling further; 7) Russia maintaining their diesel export ban; 8) refineries in India and the US literally exploding from the overwork (and some are now being forced into ~month-long maintenance periods); and 9) bond yields continuing to skyrocket across the Western world to heights unseen since the 2008 Great Recession or even before. So who can truly say?
Anyway. Trump has threatened a return to striking Iran after the midterms, with the aircraft carrier out in the Pacific heading for West Asia (perhaps replacing the USS George Washington? I've gotten mixed news), as well as a new amphibious landing ship which is likely going to relieve the one already present in-theater. The H.W. Bush has been found all the way off in Thailand, meaning that either there will be two or even just one aircraft carrier in the region surrounding Iran soon. As stated by many people many times before, the capacity for large strikes equal to the one in early March no longer exists, with the Navy forced hundreds of miles further away than during the first half of the year in response to Iran's anti-ship missiles, and most bases in the region no longer safely operable with the ongoing interceptor famine. Trump has had trouble articulating exactly why a return to missile strikes would be necessary if Iran has indeed lost control of the Strait of Hormuz and if the blockade on Iran is working, with the only constant being the talismanic phrase "Iran must not acquire a nuclear weapon." Araghchi recently remarked that Iran is prepared for a "doomsday war", which demonstrates that if Trump is bluffing to intimidate Iran, then it's just as unlikely to work as all the myriad other times. Iran is also dramatically expanding its number of battalions, and says they are advancing their missile technology to be able to hit targets further away, as well as moving targets at sea (a genuinely massive challenge for all militaries, not just Iran). The number of US troops soon to be in theater is an order of magnitude less than would be required to occupy a portion of Iranian territory for an extended period, and the threat to destroy the region's fossil fuel infrastructure if Iran's is hit is only more impactful now that global inventories have dwindled.
Ansarallah continues to make gains in their offensive, and are, as of me writing this, cutting off PLC access to the major city of Taiz, attacking the salient there from numerous directions, including both sides of the neck. The Saudi response to the rout of their mercenary groups in Yemen has been a lot of floundering. It's hard for me to personally say to what extent their airstrikes are effective, but it certainly hasn't stopped the advances, and Ansarallah's capacity to respond to them by destroying their critical infrastructure has put them in a major bind. They've recently unveiled a plan to the media to conduct an offensive to retake the Red Sea coast or even all of Ansarallah's territory, though everybody who's been watching the Ukraine War knows that preannouncing your offensives is a bad omen for their actual effectiveness. Not because your enemy will know you're coming, per se - they'd know regardless due to their intel of your mobilizations - but because it indicates that you care more about the optics of being seen to be "doing something soon" than actually conducting a well-planned and well-provisioned offensive. There's also reports that the Zionists are becoming increasingly involved in trying to help the Saudis repel Ansarallah, which is a telling indicator of the value of the recent Mecca Agreement.
As I mentioned in last week's preamble, Brazil's first round has come and gone, and my sense of foreboding was largely vindicated. Polls before the election described a tight race with Lula out in front by 1 or 2 percentage points; this was, incidentally, the same lead by which Lula defeated Bolsonaro 1.0 years ago. Exit polls described a similar state of play. The actual results were the reverse situation, with Bolsonaro 2.0 out in front by 1 or 2 percentage points (47% to 45%). This avoids the catastrophe of a first round victory for Bolsonaro, and the disaster of something unsalvageable like a 49-42 lead, but is still decidedly in the L column for Lula's chances without some major last-minute cavalry coming for the second round on October 25th. The impression I've gotten is that Lula's poor performance is due to the combination of the very recent corruption scandal as a short term influence, the general economic malaise caused by the economic shockwaves of the Iran War as a medium term influence, and the lukewarm social and economic development made during Lula's term as a long term influence. Regardless of the ultimate outcome, escaping the cycle of socdem-comprador-socdem-comprador is the challenge of the current era, particularly in Latin America, and especially when the US is retrenching into Latin America as they gradually withdraw or are kicked out of Afro-Eurasia. :::
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
::: spoiler The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
:::
::: spoiler Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
:::
Brazil's largest left-wing parties all gained seats in the Chamber of Deputies:
Workers' Party: 14,793,128 votes (13%), 70 seats (+1)
Communist Party of Brazil: 1,306,368 votes, (1.15%), 11 seats (+5)
Socialism and Liberty Party: 5,312,161 votes (4.67%), 14 seats (+2)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Brazilian_general_election#Chamber_of_Deputies (CW: NATOpedia)
Then you check the numbers for the bolsonarist party (220 seats) and its just sad
https://t.me/NO41bis/21255
Attack on the German Armed Forces
https://de.indymedia.org/node/864020
In the early morning hours of September 24, 2026, we attacked three German Army trucks in Barleben, Saxony-Anhalt, with a box of incendiary devices. On September 25, thousands of students were on strike and in the streets to demonstrate against conscription, militarism, and war. Naturally, we workers also want to contribute to this movement and have therefore launched this concrete disarmament initiative.
War on war!
Red Workers: Ulrike Meinhof Action Group
I dont think I saw this shared here, just popped up somewhere I have notifications for, you dont normally see this stuff reported unless the cops are close to nicking them or looking for hints. They drop some small 'we have evidence' and hope someone gets sloppy and brags about it.
anyway, imperialism must be destroyed
https://nitter.tiekoetter.com/danriversitv/status/2107162522679713972
Scoop: I have heard from a source familiar with the RAF Fairford story that the US feared a drone a attack similar to Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb last year which destroyed 10 Russian aircraft. They fear Iran might copy the tactics and that drones might even already be in UK, hence abrupt departure of B1s.
https://x.com/ripplebrain/status/2107191786670092672 (privated account)
Debasification is accelerating at geographic distances I failed to anticipate
damn, now I kinda wish that was what really happened (a version of spiderweb)
They're so jumpy, it seems like flying a hobby drone over a base would be enough to get them to panic and probably cause some real damage to the facility in their attempt to protect it.
never forget the weather balloon incident, they used a sidewinder missile for that and for the hobbyist balloon launched shortly afterwards by a university (~$400,000 each). These are the kinds of returns on investments you can get on balloons in 2026. Balloon stonks are way up.
Idk if the balloon will work too well without the impending release of bodycam footage where cops murder someone.
The latest SouthFront map shows that Yemeni forces have encircled the Saudi proxies occupying the important city of Taiz:
https://s1.cdnstatic.space/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/5october2026_Yemen_war_map-2.jpg
Just like in my grandstrategy games
https://nitter.tiekoetter.com/BrettErickson28/status/2106866676788810002
Hidden in a Treasury press release of sanctions designations is a clear admission that Iran IS getting PAID by some countries and companies for transit: “Since June of this year, OFAC-designated Hormuz Safe Marine Services Authority has used BitBank to transfer payments it received to the Iranian regime.”
Link to the full September 17th Press Release from OFAC for those of you depraved enough to read: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0632/
Pakistan and Türkiye will immediately deploy troops and military capabilities to Saudi Arabia, the three countries said after an emergency meeting of their Makkah Alliance for Defense in Riyadh on Monday.
The joint statement says the alliance will move "immediately to the practical implementation of the collective defense commitments," with "rapid deployment" of the agreed forces to the kingdom.
The three also condemned the "attempted targeting of Makkah and Madinah." On Sept. 16, the Saudi coalition said it intercepted a drone headed for Mecca but released no evidence. Last week, it said a drone struck an electricity station in Medina, citing wreckage that has not been independently verified. Ansar Allah denied both, calling them "lies" and saying it targets only oil facilities and military bases.
https://nitter.perennialte.ch/DropSiteNews/status/2107192820465586319
money money money in the muslim wooooooorld.
So how badly does this bode for Ansrah Allah?
I wonder if Pakistani soldiers will care to fight on behalf of Israel/KSA against those muslim brothers who stood with Gaza. I hope we see high rates of desertion, sabotage, disobeying orders, etc.
Turkish soldiers will do whatever though, those guys are war hardened psychos from Syria. Completely amoral mercenaries.
strategically meh, air strikes and blockade are a much bigger problem, tactically obviously suboptimal as it’s more bodies and vehicles to fight. if i believed turks and pakistanis had a concept of shame might be even good from mutiny perspectives, but they don’t
I feel the opposite. Ansarallah has been under total air superiority and blockade for decades, they are constantly getting air striked this whole time and it has never deterred them. Saudi Proxies however lack disciplined and trained soldier corps for on the ground operations and taking territory, all the have is shitty mercenaries who keep losing and panicking and conscripted Southern Yemenis who hate their own government. Turkish infantry moving in would be a major issue, they actually have good logistics and organization and battle experience and tactics.
i retract any previous statements about my life for pakistan.
As I've always stated, the Pakistanis, who acted as some good faith moderator for MOUs/Ceasefires during the US aggression against Iran, were always doing the bidding of Washington and the Saudis. Stupid Iranian reformists actually believed Pakistan was on their side. Whenever Trump needed a ceasefire he always sent Pakistani officials to Tehran and he always got his ceasefire to ease the markets.
The Pakistani regime was installed by Washington, and is probably Trumps biggest ass kissers on the World stage. Pakistan has always acted as paid mercenaries for the Saudis, but now they've made it official with their "Mecca Pact".
When every deal contained terms favourable to the US in rhe English translation, usually to surprise of the Iranian delegation, you'd be a fool to not think the guy passing letters between you both was anything but a perfidious shit.
Do you ever wonder how the people running the lobbying operation for factory farming in one of the world's most intensively cultivated countries actually communicate? Surely it must be slick, carefully crafted, professional messaging, right?
Below you will find a transcript of an actual interview with Jeppe Bloch, the chairman of the Danish Pig Producers’ Association, done by Danish-Iraqi journalist Adnan Al-Adhami in one of Bloch's pig barns for a satirical programme for state broadcaster DR.
J: I feel that we pig producers are being subjected to racism!
::: spoiler Full transcript
A: Can I just say to you: You speak such beautiful Danish!
J: [Laughs] You do too, so there's not that much difference.
A: I'd say: I'm not a racist. I have friends who are farmers myself.
J: I'm the exact opposite of a racist, and—
[Pig squeals]
A: I'm not trying to be racist, but I think there's someone here protesting against you wanting to turn them into bacon.
J: Yes, but—
A: But could you just tell the viewers why it's you who's being discriminated against, and not your pigs?
J: Well, it's because I feel that we conventional pig producers are a minority. And that means that when we're specifically singled out, I feel that it's racist towards me as a pig producer.
A: Well, I know the feeling myself. Just because I'm brown, people assume I'm on welfare. It's exactly the same with you guys.
J: Yes, exactly the same.
A: Except that isn't actually a prejudice.
J: It absolutely is a huge prejudice because, as I said, we receive zero subsidies for pig production.
A: Okay, you don't receive anything whatsoever that could be considered public subsidy?
J: I receive zero public subsidies for my pig production.
A: Do you receive anything else?
J: Not for my pig production.
A: Do you receive anything else?
J: I receive EU subsidies for my crop production.
A: So you're on part-time welfare?
J: Yes, I'm on welfare to the extent that I have to ensure cheap food for Europeans.
A: I've just noticed one thing, and that's that all your pigs are skin-colored.
J: Yes, but some of them have tried, for today's occasion, to make themselves a little dirty, so that you wouldn't feel completely left out.
A: Make themselves a little dirty? What does that mean?
J: They've rolled around in a bit of shit and some straw.
A: What does that have to do with me?
[Awkward silence]
A: What?
J: I don't know.
A: You're just saying that they've made an effort for me by rolling around in some shit. Try to explain that.
J: So that we wouldn't feel left out.
A: We?
J: We.
J: I mean, I have both employees and sows...
A: Who stink of shit?
J: Uh, uh... no, they're not in shit...
A: For today's occasion?
J: Not... not the employees.
A: [Points at pigs] Do you actually think these guys are happy with you?
J: I'm absolutely certain they are.
A: I think they're happier to see me, because I don't turn them into bacon. I don't eat them either.
J: That's obviously true.
A: I can see on some of your pigs that you practice circumcision.
J: Those are some of the ones who've had the tip of their tails docked, yes.
A: Is it religious, or is there a reason for it?
J: If you ask me, it's a necessary evil in order to maintain good animal welfare.
A: As someone who is circumcised myself, I'd just like to say: It doesn't do you any harm. Come on.
J: Yes, but then I just have to point out that there are some politicians on the one—
A: You should try it!
J: Yeah...
A: It doesn't hurt.
A: But one of the things I think is the most racist about all of this is that if you regulate your industry too heavily, there are people who will lose their jobs, and those people are Eastern Europeans and Africans.
J: That's racist.
A: So your employees are...
J: ...not Danish either. No.
J: I also have employees who are dark-skinned.
A: How dark?
J: If the lights go out, they have to remember to smile.
A: I wouldn't say that's racist.
J: Exactly.
A: Because you're the one who's being subjected to racism.
J: Exactly.
:::
Bloch has later felt controlled to issue a public apology for his racist statements to Al-Adhami.
To normal people Bloch is an absolute moron with reprehensible opinions who is only hurting the already quickly deteriorating reputation of Danish pig factory farming. But ordinary people are not his primary audience.
For generations the Danish pork industry had an almost untouchable status and controlled both regulators and the political right. Following the 2008 financial crash, the right-wing regime slashed environmental protections as well as regulations on farm size and ownership, creating the conditions for farm ownership to concentrate in the hands of a few thousand large land owners who made bank.
But producing cheap bulk pork is not a profitable business and hasn't been so for ages. The large pig producers are only turning profits because of massive subsidies and lax regulations. The pork export industry is simply a net expense for the Danish economy. On top of that pollution of the air and coastal waters is making the factory farms a major nuisance for people. The reputation of the industry entered freefall last year when a series of TV documentaries exposed massive animal cruelty on farms belonging to top lobbyists and caused widespread public demands for regulation of the industry.
The political system is moving to pass some kind of regulation and the farm owners who used to profit are as pissed off as only members of the bourgeoisie whose privileges have been slighted can be. It is those people Bloch is talking to, convincing then that they should support him and his organisation.
Jesus Christ, the rolling in shit remark
That interview was painful, like I could feel the sheer "daddy's money" energy radiating off that pig "farmer" who has obviously never actually done a day of work in his life. And the racism. Holy shit, the only reason Anglos think Euros are less racist than Americans is because they don't speak the same language.
Comrade, that tiktok link has an account linked to it 'so and so shared a video with you', there's a photo of their face
you want to make sure you load links before posting, to see theyre not stuffed with tracking information, it's tedious. At least meta and google include the share id in the normal url
i think this is just the video, but i havent really used tiktok
https://www.tiktok.com/@svinevalget/video/7692354404388769046
incredible things are happening in danish broadcasting huh
::: spoiler spoiler J: I also have employees who are dark-skinned.
A: How dark?
J: If the lights go out, they have to remember to smile.
A: I wouldn't say that's racist.
J: Exactly.
A: Because you're the one who's being subjected to racism.
J: Exactly. :::
https://newleftreview.org/sidecar/posts/battleground-brazil
soy-bad?
pithy comments aside, amazon might be even more fucked than i thought, if agrobusiness is that important to bagman
My underatanding is that those soy crops are largely used for animal feed. It's not the soy's fault.
yeah, article mentions it of course, and one shouldn't discount china dipshittery around it (we just buy soya from willing suppliers at current market price.jpg)
Looks like young French people are really inspired by the protests of '68. Kinda glad to weirdly see a Maoist return.
I love that the hammer and sickle come in so many shapes and sizes
Dropsitenews: "CIA Report Warns Israel Could Head Toward Civil War, Total Collapse"
::: spoiler Article Israel is at risk of civil war or state collapse, a classified CIA assessment warns, as years of genocide in Gaza and war in Lebanon and Iran deepen political, economic, and social fractures within the country.
The August report, titled “Fracture From Within,” was compiled by experts in the CIA’s Red Cell, according to two U.S. sources who described the contents of the report to Drop Site News. The Red Cell, which is the unit responsible for providing “alternative analysis” within the agency, produced the assessment through a combination of open source information and U.S. intelligence. The assessment appears to refer only to Israel’s Jewish citizens and does not consider its Palestinian citizens, who make up approximately 20% of Israel’s population and who live under various forms of discrimination that Amnesty International and other human rights groups have labelled as part of a broader system of apartheid. The CIA did not respond to a request for comment.
CIA experts pointed to a volatile mix of pressures converging ahead of Israel’s elections on October 27: economic crisis and soaring military spending; heavily armed veterans returning from prolonged combat, many carrying serious psychological trauma; growing fury over ultra-Orthodox men who are exempt from military service; escalating settler violence in the occupied West Bank; and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fighting to hold onto power and igniting a constitutional crisis.
The CIA’s “red teams” are tasked with developing analysis and ideas that challenge prevailing assumptions and expose groupthink or blind spots that can take hold within the intelligence apparatus. “The writers of this are Israel experts,” a source in the intelligence community noted, “this isn’t a fantastical what if—with the upcoming election and the fissures in Israel we should take seriously their conclusion that Israel is one spark away from real internal conflict.”
One of the deepest fractures in Israeli politics has emerged not over opposition to the country’s war crimes—but over who is expected to fight and who is exempt. Ultra-Orthodox men have historically received broad exemptions from military service while continuing to receive state benefits, an arrangement that has become increasingly contentious amid repeated reserve mobilizations. Their collective refusal to serve is not rooted in opposition to Israel’s wars, as ultra-Orthodox leaders argue that military service threatens religious life and their obligation to Torah study. But after years in which reservists have been repeatedly called away from their jobs and families, the exemption has become a potent source of resentment in Israeli society. Households have also been absorbing the costs of Israel’s belligerent policies. Food prices have reached record highs, with the cost of food—including fresh fruit and vegetables—rising 9.5 percent over the past two years, deepening an already severe cost-of-living crisis after years of war.
Yet much of the opposition to Netanyahu is not opposition to Israel’s brutality against Palestinians, but anger over how he has managed it. The major anti-Netanyahu Zionist parties are themselves divided over leadership and coalition strategy, while a central line of attack against Netanyahu has been his responsibility for the October 7 security failure. Recent polling has shown both the Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu blocs struggling to reach the 61 seats required to govern.
The sources warned that the combination of political fracture and a growing population of heavily armed, traumatized veterans has historical precedents. “Famously the Freikorps of Germany were PTSD-addled veterans with weapons and bloodthirst,” he said. “I’m not saying Israel post Gaza is Germany post-WWI but there are certainly aspects of this that ring similar to me.”
Israel is also confronting growing isolation abroad, including an erosion of support in the United States that Israeli officials themselves have privately treated as a long-term threat. The August report pointed to Israel increasingly becoming a pariah state as a factor that could lead to state breakdown.
According to another CIA assessment Capital & Empire reported in July, Israeli officials believe the American political consensus underpinning the alliance is breaking down and that continued reliance on billions of dollars in direct U.S. military aid may eventually become politically untenable. Their response has been to seek deeper integration into the American military, intelligence, and defense establishment—ties that would be harder for future governments to unwind. By this spring, 60% of Americans viewed Israel unfavorably, up from 53% a year earlier, according to a Pew Research Center survey.
That deterioration of support is increasingly visible inside the U.S. national security establishment, as well. “The intelligence community, like America, like the military, like everywhere, is growing frustrated with the real and political capital that’s spent on propping up Israel,” the source said. “As we’re moving forward with further integrating our military-industrial capacity with them, there’s deep frustration that we’re doing this for a country that dragged us into a war we’re losing, a country that spies on us.”
The CIA report also tried to game out how these pressures could interact if Israel’s internal crisis deepened—how a single spark could turn political fracture into open civil conflict, and what would follow from there. Among the scenarios raised were foreign technology and artificial-intelligence companies pulling investment or personnel from Israel, further eroding an already strained economy, regional governments reconsidering the political and strategic value of deeper normalizing relations with Israel, and Hamas or Hezbollah exploiting a period of domestic weakness. The report specifically used the term “civil conflict,” according to the sources.
For decades, Israel’s power depended not only on weapons and American backing, but on the projection that its military dominance, intelligence superiority, and internal cohesion made the state effectively unbreakable. But as the assessment warned, beneath that projection of overwhelming force, Israel is accumulating economic, political, and social contradictions that military might alone may not be able to contain. :::
“I’m not saying Israel post Gaza is Germany post-WWI but there are certainly aspects of this that ring similar to me.”
That prospect turns me on. Sexually.
yeah? Didn't we hear this before - I'd like this theory more when it happens.
one: voters in usa may view entity whatever, their elected don't give a shit and neither do voters after an appropriate dose of tiktoks, two: hit translate in hebrew and stoke ultra orthodox fissure patricians/lowly warcriminal plebeians, got it.
I don't see how any of those issues can lead to an actual civil war.
The entire population is firmly, frothingly, pro genocide. The only disagreements seem to be who should lead the genocide and how brutal they wish for it to be. Those aren't lines that will lead to any civil unrest.
The material gains would need to be stopped and reversed for recriminations to begin. As long as Greater Israel is expanding and taking new land, they will not collapse. The moment they are forced militarily to withdraw and retreat and stop annexing new land, it may occur
I wonder if they are calling it a civil war in the report but more accurately it will just be an implosion of the state due to internal contradictions. A population full of distrust, PTSD, isolation, etc may be entirely aligned on the genocide part but still not be able to keep their project together due to infighting etc
i wouldn't say the orthodox faction are in lockstep, taking away priviledge from settlers is a very potent vector for social unrest. they'd need more decisive leadership and a line beyond 'anti-draft' but it's by no means impossible for them (and reaction against them) to spiral from the current grains into a heap esp. if they can find common ground with the liberal parliamentary opposition
Yeah, I agree. The report feels like wish casting. What would they be fighting over? Which identical fascist party will get to administer the next round of killing and neoliberalism? The elections can be contentious over personalities and marginal policy differences, but none of that drives to internal armed conflict.
Seems more like a risk of either drafting the UO and the UO just leaving to avoid that or not drafting them and hurting the moral of those who don't get an exception and some of them deciding to leave.
Would it even be possible for the majority of ultra orthodox Israelis to leave? How many have dual citizenship? How many are independently wealthy enough to buy a passport elsewhere?
No sarcasm or argumentativeness intended, I'm legitimately curious if anyone has statistics on this.
Couldn't happen to a more deserving country.
does not consider its Palestinian citizens, who make up approximately 20%
new yemeni fpv footage. first i’ve seen of the hezbollah/russia type rather than the grenade droppers
https://streamable.com/deomdo
https://t.me/MilitaryMediaY/46909
using red concave kites instead of red equilateral triangles
Another Yemeni innovation.
all footage of the saudi proxy army they seem to just be driving in circles in the desert. Like every truck visible is going in a different direction. these dudes really don't want to fight or know what to do
Cantabrian circle.
Don't work too well against FPV drones evidently
Kill Israel
Zionism is Racism
Zionism is Apartheid
Zionism is Settler-Colonial Genocide
So say we all.
That will definitely get you banned from
You have been banned from Israel
Does anybody know anything about the The Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System? It certainly makes for good PR for the US and for Trump. I'm surprised Trump didn't boast on Truth Social with a term like "killer missiles".
CBS News - U.S. approves $1 billion arms sale to UAE. The U.S. on Monday announced the approval of a $1 billion sale to the United Arab Emirates of up to 10,000 Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System guidance sections for rockets. "The proposed sale will improve the United Arab Emirates' capability to meet current and future threats by developing and maintaining a strong and ready self-defense capability and improving interoperability with U.S. forces," the State Department said in a statement.
It "will support the foreign policy and national security objectives of the United States by improving the security of a major defense partner," the statement added. The Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System converts unguided rockets into precision munitions that can be employed for purposes including shooting down drones, thereby avoiding the use of costly missiles to shoot down comparatively cheap aircraft.
The UAE and other U.S.-allied Gulf countries – many of which are home to American bases – have been hard hit by the Iran war, during which Tehran's forces have repeatedly targeted them with both drones and missiles. The State Department also announced on Monday the approval of a $400 million sale to Kuwait – another Gulf state – of "repair and return services" for Patriot missiles, which have played a key role in countering Iranian attacks in the region.
"Kuwait will use the enhanced capability to strengthen its homeland defense" and "will have no difficulty absorbing these articles and services into its armed forces," the department said in a statement.
This is basically sort of like JDAM kits for dumb bombs, but applied to rocket pods. USIS has been using these for drone interception via fighter jets iirc. With a complement of rocket pods, one fighter can potentially take out 50+ shahed drones. Not sure if this system is effective against the faster jet drones though, and don't think it offers a any help for ballistic missiles.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Precision_Kill_Weapon_System
lol you’ve said the summoning code for @MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net
I'm curious but google is such shit.
per him, iirc it is legitimately a cheap and effective way to shoot down slow moving drones with jets
slightly undermined by the fact that these are being sold for $100k each, apparently
well it’s relatively cheap for us, idk about for them
This entire war is going to result in the gulf states completely sucked dry of money. Half of it going up in flames, the other half being sent back to the USA in exchange for weapons/favor/military assistance.
That's the amazing thing about having a global empire, no matter what you do you can't lose. Every fuck up just nets you more money. As long as you don't care about your allies and they don't stick up for themselves, you can put all the punishment and consequence onto others while reaping all the rewards. None of the wars are close to home, nothing can hurt you even when you lose. There's no stakes and plenty to gain.
Sana'a is such an amazing city architecturally and culturally, Israel really destroys everything that was once good or beautiful. Beirut was once the "jewel of the middle east" and now it's half rubble. Damascus and Baghdad as well. They will target all the Iranian cultural heritage sites and mosques too whenever they can.
golestan palace, march 2026
it wasn't until recently that i saw someone point out that, for an indigenous population, the israelis are unmatched in the disgust and contempt they have for the land they lay claim to.
like, is there any other indigenous population that takes any pride in carrying out the systematic destruction of land, culture, people, flora, and fauna of its ancestral territory?
of all the indigenous populations that i have learned about, living responsibly and taking care of the land - or living as one with the land - is an immense responsibility and cultural touchstone.
Israelis literally import invasive species to "make the desert bloom" they are destroying the land actively, they rip up the native flora and fill it with lawns and palm trees
I should start a business that sells giant inflatable buildings to countries the US wants to subjugate as a way of saving lives.
You take a picture of the inflatable building from a satellite and label it on Google maps as "Hospital for terminally ill child cancer patients that are orphans also we pair them up with disabled puppies."
An "all-girls school for the exceptionally innocent" maps marker would get the first nuke of the war
European rearmament going well, I see... https://archive.ph/vevEn
Germany's Tomahawk-Typhon Budget Balloons From €1.37B to €3.4B, But Won't Buy a Single Extra Missile or Launcher
Hartpunkt analysis shows initial €220M launcher estimate was half real cost while fire control and maintenance add €1.2B, leaving 400-440 Tomahawks at best
::: spoiler more
In 2025 Germany allocated €1.37 billion for future procurement from U.S. of 400 ground-based Tomahawk Block Vb cruise missiles and three Typhon launcher batteries. Now Germans are ready to spend €3.4 billion on procuring these cruise missiles and launchers, already budgeted for 2027. With high probability the deal between Germany and U.S. on Tomahawks will go through, but this by no means signifies delivery of greater quantity of Typhon and Tomahawk. As Hartpunkt portal authors estimate, for the above-mentioned €3.4 billion Germany will not be able to buy a greater quantity of Typhon launchers and Tomahawk cruise missiles than originally planned. The entire matter lies in the German side likely not fully accurately estimating the possible expenditure level at the beginning of this story.
More specifically, for procuring three Typhon batteries comprising 12 launchers, three command vehicles and associated equipment, initially only €220 million was allocated. However more realistically here a figure of €440 million should be taken, meaning twice as much. Additionally, fire control system and technical maintenance costs apparently need to be added here.
what is it with European countries and forgetting to take into account maintenance costs? are they operating on such high levels of end-of-history-ism that they can't even conceptualize of things decaying with use anymore?
Adjusting for experience of analogous procurements by Japan and Netherlands (which however purchased naval-based Tomahawks), for Germany this expenditure should be approximately €1.2 billion. The remaining amount of €1.76 billion at current domestic and export Tomahawk prices is sufficient to purchase from 400 to 440 cruise missiles of indicated type. Defense Express emphasizes — if Hartpunkt authors' calculations are correct, then an interesting paradox emerges where Germany will have to sharply increase expected expenditures on strategically important weapons procurement not even due to inflation but initial budget miscalculations. :::
all of NATO has terminal stage public/private procurement disease
Critical support for the USA slowing down the bloodthirsty krauts
That's actually normal for Germany. Publicly funded infrastructure projects tend to go grossly over budget as well.
Russian Plague Lab researcher dies of mystery illness.
200 workers under observation. Suspected plague but not known at this time.
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
Gas update (using AAA US national average)
Regular Current - 4.36
Regular Highest Recorded (6/15/22) - 5.02
Diesel Current - 6.32
Diesel Highest Recorded (9/22/26) - 6.52
https://gasprices.aaa.com/
::: spoiler video :::
Interesting Russian innovation to counter strategic drone strikes: aerostat balloons that suspend a "wall" of kevlar cords between them. If the drones try to fly over instead of through, they will be easier to shoot down.
Hell yeah barrage balloons are back
It's darkly fascinating how drones have made certain older military technologies much more useful. Napoleon would be enthralled with recon drones for artillery.
Cute idea, but what is to stop them from just droning the massive "I'M OVER HERE" balloons and dropping the wall?
The the drones come all at once, then they still have to all go up to hit the balloons, making them easier targets. If they're approaching more staggered, then wouldn't they still be easier targets and they'd have a harder time even making it to the balloon.
i mean, the general idea is that you want to stack the deck on your side. between all the signal jammers, the wire netting, the cope cages and the shotguns there's a higher chance of stopping a drone than with just one of those things. this adds another layer of ''thing'' that a drone has to go through, and if it blows up the balloon then you've still succeeded at stopping a cheap drone that could've vaporized something more important
What's more expensive to manufacture and deploy? A drone or a balloon?
From what I remember of the Chinese balloon incident, it's somewhat difficult to shoot down balloons. You need special fuzes or something. I don't know if that applies here.
The Chinese balloon was a high altitude balloon, reported to be 18,000 m (60,000 feet) above the ground. That made it difficult for smaller AD munitions to hit it. A modern FPV warhead (or other cheap weapons) can take these out (since they are much lower down), as shown by Hezbollah doing exactly that to isn'treali surveillance balloons.
The special fuses were used in WWI, where they were being shot by machine guns at zeppelins. Modern drone delivered warheads can be much larger, and can include shaped charges (even the smallest drones with a 500g payload are 50x the size of a WWI era 0.303 bullet).
Also probably not that expensive to setup balloons - and it's much better for a balloon to be popped than the intended target.
We just got some more late UKMTO reports about "incidents" in the SoH. It looks like Iran hit at least 11 ships in the last week. The most interesting report was the 12th one, where a tanker got a call from the IRGC and told to turn around or be targeted and they did.
See the straight is open as long as you do what Iran says
OSINT reports related to the the tanker that turned around said there were at least 5 US or aligned refueling aircraft in the area, meaning a significant amount of air cover from fighter jets and drones and maybe others, and the vessle still complied with the IRGC
there were some column advancement nearly to bab el mandeb strait by saudis, not mined the roads awards:
(allegedly, there are videos of them killing some dozen prisoners of war as well)
1 - they have laid mines, it’s not a panacea
2 - this advance is a farce and a propaganda blitz, dhubab is entirely in the hands of Ansarallah
News about Brazil right now is like:
Good thing: A lot of actual communists got elected with a good number of votes.
Bad thing: Hitler do not have an absurd number of votes because he was not in the ballot.
Seems to me that Germany is tempting fate in Ukraine right now. After Friedrick "Freddy Fucknuts" Merz took the train to Kiev just yesterday, today Germany's minister for education Karin Prien did the same, allegedly to "signal continuing support" for Ukraine ahead of a presumably very bleak winter. Now, how exactly any "signal for support" helps with daily Russian drone and rocket barrages I don't know, but Ukraine watchers will certainly have noticed that the Russian administration has consistently proclaimed that Western diplomats and personnel should leave Kiev ASAP for weeks if not months now, since they plan on stepping up attacks and cannot guarantee not hitting EU/NATO housings any longer. I'm not a daily Mercouris watcher/listenerr, but every program I listened to lately featured some variation of this. Two days ago he mentioned a Russian FM report or something that said "belatedly, we observe that Western politicians still heed none of our dire warnings of bodily harm... oh well, we keep warning you!"
::: spoiler Tagesschau translated text of article, boring and very skippable https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/prien-besuch-ukraine-100.html
Education and Family Minister Karin Prien arrived in Kyiv this morning. Chancellor Friedrich Merz had only visited Ukraine on Sunday to reaffirm Germany's support for the country, which is under attack from Russia."As the Federal Republic of Germany, as the Federal Government, we stand firmly by Ukraine," Prien emphasized at the Kyiv train station. She said her visit was primarily intended to draw attention to the plight of children and young people, as well as to the support being given to civil society.The trip was also overshadowed by the threat situation: Russia had announced it would intensify attacks on the civilian population, diplomats, and guests. "But it is important, especially at this moment, not to back down, not to show fear, but to be very clear on this point," Prien said.
This message was also conveyed by Merz during his visit yesterday, said Norbert Röttgen, deputy chairman of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, on ARD's morning news program . Merz's visit was "a demonstration against the policy of intimidation that Putin is currently pursuing, especially against the German population." Merz made it clear that the goal "of ensuring the failure of this war is in the interest of Ukraine, but equally in the interest of Germany and Europe." Therefore, Röttgen also considers further aid to be sensible. The fact that Ukraine is still in its current state after more than four years of war "is inconceivable without our help. And it is necessary for this war to fail." That is why the German government is spending the money "also for German economic interests, but above all for German security." Merz announced "very concrete aid" for Ukraine yesterday. Among the military aid of around one billion euros are funds for defense against fast Russian jet drones, as well as for satellite technology and anti-missile systems. A further 350 million euros are earmarked for infrastructure and energy.
:::
Now these German visits apparently happen sort of in spite of that, to prove that "we are not intimidated by Putler's orcish threats!" - typical EU clown bravado, it would seem. It's understandable that Russia won't attack a train carrying the German chancellor, but this education minister lady - she is a gifted person. A real EU Karen through and through, with a face quite reminiscent of Kaja Kallas (and extremely correlated political views), she is mostly remembered for being in the news here last year saying that, if the despised AfD would win a major election, she would emigrate to Israel - because AfD Nazis are just like Hitler and she wants to be with the Jews then, you know, because everything is always 1933 or 1939 or 1945 in Germany.
Makes perfect sense! Especially when we finance Ukraine nazis or enable a genocide in Palestine. Other than that, the department of education she leads currently tried to do even more austerity to crumbling schools and universities. Germany just had the worst PISA result in its history (intra-OECD school rankings, probably very lib but also a usable indicator of how schooling is going in general in any given country, since China usually comes out on top). She said it's fine and German kids need to make do with less money because re-arming the military is more important. You know, stuff that would have absolutely mattered for German Jews in 1933!
If only Putler would finally harden his heart and att... - well, let's just say I'd donate blood to the Donezk people's militia for the rest of my live or something. As always, thanks for reading my rants, comrades.
Can't say this enough: death to America and its external zionist tumor, death to all Latin American compradors
I'll hijack this comment since I dont have a news item to add, and there was a lot of "what if X is an upside to a Bolsonaro govt" that I wanted to respond to but the prev. thread become locked:
The contradictions that led to the pink wave will only accelerate with this recent assault by the USian bourgeois class. The US-condoned development of indigenous capitalist forces in Latam did much to shape the previous leftist movements in the continent towards social democracy and electoralism.
With the imperialist nature of the US of late, straight-up undermining the sovreignty of states it once maintained under the Monroe Doctrine, there's a narrowing window of autonomy for electoralism and social-liberalism, and the national bourgeois classes of these countries are being subjegated to the USian bourgeosie. In turn , this has reframed the struggle into one that aims to usurp international capital, rather than the more attainable (and thus less necessarily-radical) goal of usurping (or taming) indigenous capital.
That isn't something I would moralize as "good" or "bad"; being in the imperial core I'm not the one who will be subjected to either president. Many will face worse living conditions under Bolsonaro 2, and Lula's presidency would bring continued respite for millions with the 6-1 policy repeal alone.
However, the prospect of further US consolidation of neocolonial power in its back yard is something that will help to dismantle it in the coming decades. Communists have opportunities to prepare and adapt to this new reality much more than anything the Worker's Party can muster. Perhaps the reducing influence of electoral parties is something we should consider as hopeful, if nothing else.
Lula's presidency would bring continued respite for millions with the 6-1 policy repeal alone
back in 2020, i used to say that biden's win would reinforce fascism, rather than weakening it, because his presidency would be a continuation of the same processes that caused the rise of fascism in the first place
i said the same about lula in 2022, with the very unlikely caveat that he could enact some social policies that would be enough to delay the resolution of these contradictions. turned out even this caveat didn't take place, he governed just like a 3rd-world biden, the parallels are endless
at this point, i'm not even sure if a lula win is desirable. our institutions are going to collapse really fast, with the far-right becoming the most powerful faction in congress and winning first-round in so many states. demoralized by the incoming oil crisis, he'd definitely be ousted, and the left would take further losses (even if lula isn't a leftist, he's still associated with us). from a long-term strategic standpoint, might be better to just let go and brace ourselves, because these contradictions need to be resolved one way or another
"Cury could go for Lula, no? Avante did before. I mean Santos will definitely break for Bolsonaro, and the "social democrats" went for Bolsonaro before. So it won't make much of a difference."
Cury could declare his vote for Lula, but that doesn't mean his voters will vote for Lula. Truth us the situation in the senate and congress is impossible for Lula to govern. If Flávio wins, he is barely going to govern anything specially when Trump is gone eventually.
So neither will have much ability to do anything? What about if Flavio were to just do the Trump thing of ignoring everyone who tells him he cant do X because of legality?
So neither will have much ability to do anything?
Flávio does control the senate so he can privatize a lot of stuff and fuck with the supreme court by stuffing it. The Left and the Libs can still block a lot of his stuff in congress if they want to, but heres the thing; that sort of is Flávio's plan. Since the 1950s the right in Brazil wants parlimentarism, they already did that in 1961, then tried again in 1993, and established semi-presidencialism after the 2016 coup. Why they want a strong congress and weak executive? Because that favors corruption and the elites. They really really hate people like Vargas, Perón, etc because they took all the power to the presidency and forced changes.
What about if Flavio were to just do the Trump thing of ignoring everyone who tells him he cant do X because of legality?
Supreme Court Justices can struck down any of his decisions if they feel like. He doesn't want to govern, he just wants to do whatever Marco Rubio tells him to do.
This election is a huge blow to Brazil's whole political structure, right?
God, I hope people realize quickly how social media has made bourgeois democracy obsolete. If it wasn't that clear 10y ago for most, surely it should be now?
God, I hope people realize quickly how social media has made bourgeois democracy obsolete
i'm under the impression that social media accelerated a process that has been ongoing from 2008. as in, bourgeois democracy has been obsolete for quite a while, because liberalism has reached its limits. then socials just replaced the old fascist pamphlet with instagram accounts
I read a Monthly Review article that talked about viewing social media as like a parasite on the real world. People are increasingly making decisions to sate the parasite and the parasite grows because of it. LLMs have only added to this parasite's size and effectiveness.
i'm under the impression that social media accelerated a process that has been ongoing from 2008. as in, bourgeois democracy has been obsolete for quite a while, because liberalism has reached its limits. then socials just replaced the old fascist pamphlet with instagram accounts
:this:
I think the problem with the left and socdems in South American and LatAm is that since the 2008 crisis didn't really do anything to us, we though we would be safe from what happened in the past, remember 2008 was the peak of the first pink tide with even paraguay electing a socialist. Then in 2012 everything went to shit and Unasur was destroyed. The only real active Left-Wing leader in South America is Evo Morales in Bolivia which is why the cia is desperate to kill him before the Oil Crisis hits us hard next year.
The only real active Left-Wing leader in South America is Evo Morales in Bolivia
i consistently forget that our boy is still there lol, even if he's out of power atm the man is still a survivor
He basically has his own state within a state in Cochabamba the only state govern by the Left in Bolivia
This election is a huge blow to Brazil's whole political structure, right?
Yes, basically none of the other far-right parties got anything at all they were either all voted out or didn't get elected. Some Bolsonarists didn't win anything. The Center lost a lot of stuff, and the Left basically is just PT and their allies, though some radical socialists/communists got elected to congress which surprised everyone since they were not expected to win, also PT managed to win in the first round some governor elections in the northeast which was not expected at all.
