SeventyTwoTrillion [he/him]
newsImage depicts a destroyed Saudi pipeline pumping station.
My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.
::: spoiler preamble If last week has had a geopolitical main character, it was Ansarallah in Yemen. In under 24 hours, they managed to seize a very large amount of territory to their west from Saudi-backed mercenary groups. Tens of thousands of enemy soldiers fled, thousands more were captured, and hundreds of combat vehicles and all sorts of military equipment and ammunition are now in Ansarallah's hands. The entire Red Sea coast of Yemen is now under their control, as well as some of the islands in and around the Bab el-Mandab, which is the narrow strait connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, which then goes on to connect to the Arabian Sea.
While Ansarallah had a pretty good grip on the Red Sea beforehand and could blockade it to the extent that traffic through the Red Sea plummeted in 2024 and 2025 and remain subdued to this day, it is now capable of much more direct control. And the strait is considerably narrower than Hormuz, meaning there is little hope for any covert operations like those of which the US regularly tries and fails to do over there. The only alternatives for the enemies of Ansarallah both now and in the future are the route all the way around Africa, which becomes even less attractive than usual as fuel prices rise into daily record highs, or the newly inaugurated Northern Sea Route under the firm control of Russia.
While Ansarallah is likely to continue their territorial acquisitions to an extent - with Marib looking like an obvious target - how things will continue from this point seems likely to be increasingly diplomatic. Yemen was once divided between North Yemen (which is, really, western Yemen) and South Yemen (which is, really, eastern Yemen), and this division reflects several genuine historical differences between the populations. Ansarallah has repeatedly stated that they have no intention to militarily occupy the south, and indeed, they ended this most recent offensive at approximately the historical border. Nonetheless, the government in once-South Yemen's capital of Aden is considered the sole internationally recognized government of Yemen, which doesn't sound sustainable for the future, so we'll just have to see how the situation develops geopolitically from here, even if it's unlikely to be militarily in the case of the southern and eastern territories.
While all this has been going on, Ansarallah was additionally applying major pressure on Saudi Arabia itself, by bombing their military airfields and, even more critically, their oil transportation and production facilities. These strikes were mostly limited to the port facilities in e.g. Yanbu and Jazan, and the Western air interceptor famine has meant that these strikes were mostly unopposed and caused substantial losses. However, Ansarallah has now destroyed some pumping stations for the East-West pipeline that spans Saudi Arabia, bypassing Hormuz for some (but not all) of Saudi Arabia's oil production to the tune of around 4 million barrels per day, which is, in a happy numerical coincidence, about 4% of pre-2026 oil production. I've seen several wildly varying estimates for how long it might take to repair the stations, with some saying a few days and others stating at least a month; the damage does look pretty gnarly on the images. Of course, it might not really matter, because Ansarallah can easily just fire another missile at a station once it's repaired, unless and until the Saudis give in to Ansarallah's demands and end the war. :::
Last week's thread is here.
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::: spoiler The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
:::
::: spoiler Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
:::
This article was at the top of the NYT homepage.
Gulf Arab States Explore New Options as U.S. Bases Fail to Deter Iran
The American presence in these countries has not shielded them from retaliation during the Iran war. Now they are hoping direct talks with Iran could help.
::: spoiler Full text Gulf Arab countries have long relied for their security on the U.S. military bases that they host.
But after six months of war, the repeated pummeling of those countries by Iranian missiles and drones has made the limitations of American security guarantees abundantly clear.
Iran and its allies have nearly destroyed some of the U.S. bases, set luxury hotels ablaze and, most recently, knocked offline one of the most critical pieces of energy infrastructure in the world, an oil pipeline that stretches across Saudi Arabia.
Their backs against a wall, Gulf Arab officials are now trying to cobble together different ways to avoid attacks by Iran and its allies, including direct diplomacy with the Islamic Republic.
Even that option faces challenges. On Sunday night, a meeting that was scheduled for Monday between Iran and the Gulf Arab states was abruptly postponed. The delay came after Saudi Arabia and Iran reached an impasse in discussions about the Strait of Hormuz — a crucial route for Gulf energy exporters — according to a senior Gulf official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomacy.
Analysts say the region’s leaders have no choice but to seek different security options after the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran exposed the vulnerabilities of the Gulf Arab countries and emboldened the Islamic Republic.
“We’re stuck in this position of trying to build something new while maintaining some of the old,” said Bader Al-Saif, an assistant professor of history at Kuwait University. “We need to snap out of this external protector syndrome.”
The island nation of Bahrain, for example, has been host to a major American naval base for decades in the hopes of protecting itself from Iran. But as in other Gulf countries, the base became a target, instead.
The base was nearly destroyed in February, on the first day of Iran’s retaliatory attacks against the assault launched by the United States and Israel. Most of the sailors stationed there were evacuated to Florida, leaving a skeleton crew, according to a U.S. military official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters.
Some sailors in Bahrain were evacuated so rapidly that the U.S. Navy is still trying to reunite them with their belongings, Adm. Daryl Caudle, chief of naval operations, said at a recent town hall meeting. It is unclear when they will return, he said.
For the United States and its allies in the Middle East, the war has incurred steep costs. Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz represents a major strategic failure and an economic setback for Gulf energy exporters. The inability of U.S. forces to fend off attacks by Iran is another strategic failure, which could have significant consequences for those countries and for America’s projection of power.
Yet Bahrain and the other Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, have no clear, single alternative to the United States as the guarantor of their security.
Their militaries are smaller and weaker than Iran’s, despite spending hundreds of billions of dollars on advanced weaponry in recent decades, including American F-15 fighter jets and Patriot missile defense systems.
China and Russia have not stepped in to defend the Gulf countries, despite close ties with many of them.
Many Gulf officials are calling for greater regional self-sufficiency in defense. But efforts to bolster regional security — like a new defense pact among Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey — are unproven. It remains unclear whether any of these countries will be willing and able to come to each other’s aid.
The most realistic option for Gulf countries is to build defense partnerships that will “supplement, rather than replace, the U.S. security umbrella,” said Yasmine Farouk, Gulf and Arabian Peninsula project director at the International Crisis Group.
Gulf analysts and officials say that without U.S. assistance and American weaponry, such as air defenses, the damage to the Gulf states would have been far worse. Dozens of people were killed in the Iranian attacks, instead of hundreds or thousands. Flights carrying tourists and businesspeople were canceled and delayed but have started to resume.
Still, Iran’s campaign wreaked havoc on the energy-rich economies of the Gulf countries, cracking their images as safe havens in a volatile region.
The war proved that the Gulf’s advanced defense systems are not “leak proof,” and that Iran can “impose major costs” on the countries by using large numbers of relatively cheap drones, said Kristian Alexander, a senior fellow at the Rabdan Security & Defence Institute, a government-linked research institution in the United Arab Emirates.
Facing fierce counterattacks from Iran, the United States “prioritized protecting its personnel and defending Israel,” Mr. Alexander added. “These priorities did not always coincide with the Gulf’s needs to protect airports, ports, desalination plants.”
The short supply of U.S. missile interceptors globally also posed a challenge for the Gulf Arab states in the early weeks of the war, and they have tried to fill the gap by turning to Ukraine and other European countries. But even enhanced air defenses against relatively inexpensive Iranian drones cannot provide complete protection.
Anna Kelly, a White House spokeswoman, said that President Trump is “in constant communication” with regional partners and that the United States “maintains stronger bonds with these countries than ever before.”
She dismissed the idea that American military protection for the Gulf countries has been insufficient, saying that analysts who assert that “are not privy to sensitive diplomatic conversations and have no idea what they are talking about.”
Exploring other ways to improve their security, Gulf Arab officials were scheduled to meet with officials from Iran in Oman on Monday. On the agenda was an Iranian-Omani proposal for shipping operations in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has choked off much of the traffic in the strait while threatening to introduce a toll or fee system for vessels.
The meeting was called off after Saudi Arabia suggested amendments, including one rejecting an Iranian assertion that the strait is not an international waterway, according to the senior Gulf official. Iran rejected some of the Saudi amendments and asked for more time to review others, the official said.
On Monday, the Iranian foreign ministry spokesman, Esmaeil Baghaei, said the meeting would have been “an opportunity” to “discuss creating a secure region, free from the interference of other actors.” He confirmed that Saudi Arabia had asked for the delay.
No new date has been announced, but analysts said such efforts to address differences though dialogue are likely to continue.
In an essay in a French newspaper, Le Monde, in July, Oman’s foreign minister called for a new multilateral arrangement that would bring the Gulf Arab countries together with Iran and Iraq to share responsibility for the region’s security.
Doing so would require a “clear examination of relations with major partners like the United States” and a rebalancing of the region’s alliances, wrote the minister, Badr al-Busaidi.
Indeed, years before the war, several Gulf countries had pursued a rapprochement with Iran, hoping that an easing of tensions would protect them.
The war initially derailed that effort. Yet months later — for lack of a better option — the Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have returned to diplomacy, with the aim of gradually rebuilding trust with Iran and fostering shared economic interests that bind their fates.
At a conference early this month, Anwar Gargash, a senior Emirati official, acknowledged that a diplomatic approach was inevitable, regardless of what had transpired.
“Iran remains our neighbor, and at some point we will have to find a way to restore what can be restored,” he said. “Geography leaves us no alternative to engagement.” :::
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/15/world/middleeast/gulf-us-iran-uae-bahrain-saudi-arabia.html
Libya's NOC says it may declare force majeure after protests hit oil facilities (Reuters)
Mind you this happens fairly regularly as various political forces use oil production as leverage and ultimately the country apparently produces like 1.5M barrels a day but still, what timing.
In this case this appears to come from the militia guarding the facilities themselves:
In a statement obtained by Reuters, the Petroleum Facilities Guard, which provides security for Libya's oil fields, pipelines and terminals, demanded that their agency be transferred "financially and administratively under the National Oil Corporation".
They called on the prime ministry and the NOC to take urgent measures to complete the administrative and financial arrangements for this, and set a clear implementation timeline. The agency currently operates under the defence ministry.
The Guard said it would implement a partial production cut for one week as of Tuesday at several fields including Wafa, Al-Khamsa and El Feel, adding that a complete shutdown would follow if their demands were not met.
Malaysia's Coast Guard has seized three cargo vessels that were headed to Israel Malaysia had imposed a national ban on the entry of Israeli or Israeli-bound vessels within its waters.
- Middle East Spectator
Iran has downed another American MQ-1C drone, the third in the last 24 hours
- Middle East Spectator
In the Netherlands, widespread acts of sabotage took place against the railway network today, according to national broadcaster NOS. At more than 30 locations throughout the country, materials like metal pipes and tubes were placed on the railway tracks.
Some media point towards possible Russian sabotage. However, it is more likely the acts of sabotage were committed by farmers protesting against the government. Farmers also placed burning piles of horse shit and stacks of hay along major highways this coincided with the railway sabotage actions, making it more likely they were done by farmers.
- Middle East Spectator
Muhammad Al-Bukhaiti, a member of Ansarallah’s political bureau: ‘The South [of Yemen] has its own people, and they are most deserving to govern it. Saudi Arabia should remove its hand from them.’
This confirms that Ansarallah is not looking to capture Aden by force, but rather to establish good ties with an independent southern Yemeni state.
- Middle East Spectator
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has arrived in Cairo, Egypt, where he was received by Egyptian President el-Sisi upon arrival.
- Middle East Spectator
I am not sure if this actually happened, all the websites and social media accounts "reporting" this seem kind of sketchy. But this would be an enormous fucking deal.
Senate leader Thune: I am open to considering an export ban on diesel
so how would a "crash" look like in reality? how fast or slow would that process take place? any interesting discussions on here?
https://nitter.privacyredirect.com/DanDePetris/status/2099834350955012397
The Pentagon’s Inspector General reports today that “hundreds” of buildings and structures on U.S. bases in the Middle East have been destroyed by Iranian attacks. Full report: https://media.defense.gov/2026/Sep/09/2003993626/-1/-1/1/OEF_Q3_JUN2026_FINAL_508%20SECURE.PDF
Should note that there have been various reports, many of which are backed up by satellite imagery, showing damage at multiple U.S. military bases in the region. “Structures” of course are different than bases, but this is the first time I’ve seen the word “hundreds.”
please clap
Saudi Arabia has not exported any oil via Red Sea ports since Saturday, according to maritime company Vortexa The Kingdom has also informed several European nations that their shipments of oil would be cancelled and delayes until at least November.
- Middle East Spectator
as always i gotta recommend watching the full video from ansarallah showing the recent operations. around 10 minutes it’s honest to good motorized cavalry engagements that remind of the Chad war that killed that president
https://t.me/MilitaryMediaY/46770
BREAKING: Yemen's Houthis appear to have directly struck the YASREF oil refinery in Yanbu on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast this morning, the 400,000 barrel per day Aramco-Sinopec joint venture and one of the Red Sea's largest diesel exporters. Footage shows a large fire, with heavy black smoke from a flare stack, thick black smoke rising at ground level across the site and workers evacuated.
NASA FIRMS shows two heat anomalies inside the refinery, one at high confidence, with fire radiative power above normal for the site. Yanbu is the terminus of the East-West pipeline and the port holding the week of crude stocks Saudi Arabia has left for export.
There’s a video of the burning refinery in the tweet. Things are going to get crazy soon.
Man, the Saudis must really be saying "Et tu, Brute?" Amazing that they still refuse to swap sides.
Egypt may not be able to help much, but at least they have a material reason to (Suez tolls).
In response to the new travel laws, some Chinese outlets are reporting that Huawei founder and CEO Ren Zhengfei and his family have fled China. No comment has been given by Huawei either way.
Ansarallah stopped a sort of Toyota Cavallerie advance by the Saudis in Al-Jawf (Desert to the North of Marib. Video is pretty Impressive as you can seen the Ditch (All Ages Superweapon of war) stopping the Charge then the attacker lack the curage to advance so they just linger around in front. .
Rumor is that all Saudi oil deliveries to Europe for the next few months have been 'force majeure-d', meaning everything is cancelled.
[Edit] Routers is now confirming it. "Late September" cargos are being cancelled.
Even the 'left-wing' Guardian going in on the 'Stop using so much water peasants' thing https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/sep/15/double-cleansing-should-we-really-be-cleaning-ourselves-twice-in-each-shower
They try to hide it under you shouldn't be using products on your skin that much but:
Perhaps it’s no surprise, then, that recent research found gen Zs take longer showers than any other age group – despite being most anxious about the climate crisis.
(btw showering once a day is enough but lots of people have jobs where showering twice is necessary)
China tightens control of overseas travel in sweeping new law
China has implemented sweeping new controls on overseas travel for Chinese citizens as President Xi Jinping steps up efforts to secure state secrets, advanced technology and highly skilled workers.
The regulations, which come into force on Tuesday, will formalise creeping restrictions on overseas trips for mid-to-senior-level civil servants, Communist Party cadres and state-owned enterprise employees, analysts say.
It will also cover private citizens working in sensitive areas, according to immigration experts. Those who breach the new rules will face steep fines and exit bans ranging from three months to an indefinite period.
“Beyond restricting movement, this approach helps keep both people and capital more firmly within the party-state’s sphere of control.”
Premier Li Qiang signed the decree in July and the State Council, headed by Li, said at the time that the regulations standardised procedures for exit and entry and aimed to “safeguard national sovereignty, security and development interests”.
Article 4 of Regulations of the State Council on Exit and Entry Administration states that if a Chinese citizen “violates export control or technology import and export regulations that may endanger national industrial or technological security”, government departments may “prohibit him or her from leaving the country”.
The rules did not single out the private sector but still gave “the authorities a clearer route to impose exit bans on people working in private companies, including technology executives and researchers”, said Dai Menghao, a trade compliance partner at law firm King & Wood. “The phrase ‘may endanger’ also gives the authorities considerable discretion.”
We are getting close to 6.8B. if the Saudis have to stop oil exports next week, we will also blow past it at a much faster rate. Get your fuel reserves while you still can.
️Google expands AI chip operations in Israel amid push into autonomous systems ::: spoiler Expand US tech giant Google is establishing a new engineering team in Israel focused on developing artificial intelligence chips for robots, drones and other autonomous systems, The Times of Israel reported.
Google hired Guy Kaminitz, former vice president of research and development at Israeli AI chipmaker Hailo, to lead the initiative. Kaminitz said the company is building a "world-class engineering group" in Israel from the ground up, with Google hiring dozens of engineers specializing in silicon validation, physical design, verification and machine-learning hardware architecture.
The new team will develop so-called edge AI processors that allow AI applications to run directly on devices rather than through cloud systems, with potential applications including autonomous vehicles, drones, industrial automation, smart cameras and security systems.
Google has maintained research and development operations in Israel since 2005 and expanded into chip design in 2021. :::
People like pointing out Google dropping "Don't be evil" a few years ago like it really meant something. Investing in Israel since 2005. Yeah, "Don't be evil", sure
Several groups could do something amazing right now.
️WHO to halt diesel supplies to more than 20 Gaza hospitals amid fuel shortage ::: spoiler Expand The World Health Organization (WHO) will suspend diesel supplies to more than 20 hospitals and health centers in Gaza from 19 September due to a funding shortfall, Gaza Health Ministry Director-General Munir al-Bursh said on Sunday. The WHO has not yet publicly confirmed the decision.
Bursh warned that the suspension comes as Gaza faces severe shortages of fuel and oil needed to operate hospitals, saying generators are already failing due to insufficient fuel, oil, and spare parts.
He said the loss of diesel supplies would threaten the operation of intensive care units, operating rooms, ventilators, oxygen stations, incubators, dialysis services, ambulances, and medicine and vaccine cold chains.
Gaza’s hospitals have relied on generators amid Israel’s ongoing blockade and the enclave’s prolonged power outage. The Gaza Health Ministry said several hospital generators have stopped working in recent days as shortages worsen, while the Gaza government media office has accused Israel of failing to meet its obligations under the so-called 'ceasefire' by restricting the entry of fuel and humanitarian supplies. :::
Fucking assholes, hospitals in Gaza should literally be the first priority for fuel
️South Korea and US to hold high-level talks, potentially over military deployment to Hormuz ::: spoiler Expand South Korea and the US are set to hold high-level defense talks this week as Seoul considers deploying military forces to the Strait of Hormuz amid pressure from Washington to join efforts to secure the strategic waterway, South Korean news agency Yonhap reported.
The Korea-US Integrated Defense Dialogue (KIDD), held twice a year, will take place in the southeastern port city of Busan from Wednesday to Friday, according to South Korea’s Defense Ministry. The talks are expected to cover Seoul’s restoration of wartime operational control, the two countries’ defense posture, and shipbuilding cooperation.
While the two sides have not confirmed whether a Hormuz deployment will be formally discussed, Yonhap reports that the possibility is expected to be among the issues raised as Washington pressures Seoul to contribute military forces to securing the waterway amid the ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran. :::
What’s the angle here. Is it related to North Korean deployments in Russia? Why has South Korea specifically been picked to be vassal of choice to go die on the beaches of Kharg island.
I know there was some back and forth about the us relocating some of its air defenses from South Korea to cover bases within range of Iran, but I don't remember what the final answer was. I wonder if that's part of it? (Pure, uninformed speculation)
The US can take command of the entire SK military in wartime.
They have high approval for military deployment, especially young generations for some reason https://x.com/saber_k086/status/2097916559025180861
i'm in no way knowledgeable, but from what i've heard, south korean military is generally considered more competent than the europeans.
they have universal conscription at least, though fake Korea's miltiary is geared towards homeland defense than going on imperialist adventures. Might just be the state least able to say no to America
haven't they already participated in a few imperialist misadventures (vietnam, afghanistan, iraq)?
they had a small support force in iraq and Afghanistan, they were indeed heavily involved in Vietnam and in the field committing war crimes alongside the American troops. Though for the latter their dictatorial government saw the obvious parallels with their situation with DPRK vs DRV so to them it was part of the anti-communist Asian fight, and the US paid them heavily for their involvement. It's been a long time since then though and the Samsung Republic always acts alongside American forces as either cannon fodder or propaganda mission, idk what they are supposed to militarily do that the US military can't. Open the strait? seems unlikely
If we just keep feeding Iran more military equopment eventually they're going to run out of Shaheds; and then they're really in trouble!
MBS told me Ansarallah keeps destroying his mercenaries so I asked how many mercenaries he has and he said he just goes to Colombia and gets more mercenaries afterwards so I said it sounds like he's just feeding mercenaries to Ansarallah and then his heir started crying.
you sure this check is gonna clear, chief?
Saudi Arabia reportedly contacted US, in order to beg Israel for assistance. ::: spoiler Expand Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has appealed to governments across the region, including indirectly to Israel, for assistance as Saudi-backed forces suffer battlefield setbacks in their fight against Yemen's Ansarallah, Israeli outlet Israel Hayom reported.
According to the report, Riyadh conveyed its request to Israel through US Central Command, seeking intelligence and other forms of support to prevent Ansarallah from gaining control of the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
The appeal comes as Saudi Arabia has separately pushed US President Donald Trump to intervene militarily against Ansarallah, with Washington so far declining direct military action while providing intelligence and targeting assistance.
The alleged outreach marks a significant shift for Riyadh, which has long conditioned normalization with Israel on the establishment of a Palestinian state and an end to the occupation, a position it has continued to reaffirm throughout Israel's genocide in Gaza. :::
AnsarAllah distributing food and medical equipment to civilians in Mokha. This is what a liberating army looks like btw
https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/36757?single
Danish state TV, citing an official regime press release, is reporting that a Danish Fennec helicopter was "shot at" with flares when doing "routine photo documentation" on a Russian frigate in international waters outside of Gedser.
Official sources are claiming that two flares were fired at the helicopter from the frigate, one of the flares passed close by the helicopter.
The story has not been verified by independent sources.
Danish journalists, being journalists, have pulled out the big yellow Breaking News signs and are asking eachother whether this means that Denmark should activate article 4 or 5 in the NATO pact (lol). Jeppe Bruus, head of the the social democrat-controlled Ministry of Defence, has claimed that no communication happened between the frigate and the helicopter prior to the incident and claims that he has no idea what caused the incident. The Russian ambassador has been called to the foreign ministry for a reprimand.
Update on Operation Epic Flare: The Russian ambassador has released a statement, accusing the helicopter of provoking the frigate and flying directly over the ship. The ambassador also informed that this is blue the first time Danish armed forces has carried out dangerous maneuvers near Russian ships. The statement also pointed out that Denmark has repeatedly rejected Russian proposals to make an agreement on avoiding incidents like this.
Meanwhile, everyone in Denmark who have opinions for a living, and virtually everyone with an internet connection, are baying for blood and demanding that the Russian embassy should be closed and that Denmark should stop Russian ships from navigating international waters near Denmark.
I honestly hope that the Euros actually try their luck, and force Russia's hand. Would be best for everyone other than the Epstein class, really
the only problem with this is that putin is a liberal. he'll talk about "red lines" for the umpteenth time again, with said red lines slowly turning into a red carpet.
"Sir, while we were flying close to the frigate with our lights off they shot flares near us for identification." "Perfect, report that you came under fire and almost died."
why were they doing harassment flyovers of a ship in international waters when they're at (proxy-)war with the country that owns the ship? did they want exactly this outcome?
Flock camera ass military
Calling article 4 for pop-its.
Reports of another downed MQ-1. The US usually sends them on suicide survey missions before a strike. So far 4 downed MQ-1 in the last ~7 days and no strikes yet.
Reports that Ansarallah hit the Saudi Yanbu port again. No details on the damage.
Ukrainian attack drones appear to have hit Russia’s Syzran oil refinery tonight.
Multiple fires could be seen rising from the refinery complex.
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2099643252647292964
I am appreciating trump running into the fact that not everyone bows to American money and power
They started doing this because Trump ordered them to last year. Now it is hard for Ukraine to exit infrastructure strikes because Russia isn't going to stop doing them so Ukraine might as well continue I guess - since making a deal seems to be completely unacceptable to them right now.
Trump's instruction not to strike energy infrastructure in order to relieve some pressure on global energy markets completely backfired. Ukraine sees its strikes as a way to pressure the US the same way Iran does.
Nancy Pelosi comments on the Iran War: "Our country is at war. We always root for our country under any circumstance. So let's get this done, Mr. President."
Sometimes I hope there is a hell because it feels wrong that these people who are committed to such hideous deeds will die before facing any justice - only knowing what its like to live in abnormal wealth and luxury.
It's times like these I start believe that on a cosmic level, the universe is just straight up rigged. Evil is always rewarded because people like Nazi Pedosi are actually the servants or the chosen of an evil god who rules over the world and grants them its protection from all consequences.
So my only recourse is to reject the world as a scam everyone was forced into.
Gnostic gang, rise up!
counterpoint: ansar allah
Vote blue no matter who!
Though even if you do
They'll treat you like you're poo
And flush you down the loo.
She needs to be turned into a human leather hat.
You play rimworld, don't you?
Yeah.
I went as far as to mod (and by that I mean just copy the parameters for Outlander factions because I'm lazy) hostile chud factions into the game so I can massacre them and stuff them into my shithole prisons.
It's very cathartic.
”Our country is at war.”
Former speaker of the house acknowledging the house no longer has any power over the military or declaration of war outside of pure formality
So what she's saying is that she was cheerleading when an all girls school got double tapped by war criminals. Cool, not that I needed confirmation that Nancy is a frothing at the mouth fascist, but cool. I hope she lives long enough to see the US fall.
'Member, "We're capitalists. [laughs] And that's just the way it is."? I 'member.
People coming, people going, people born to die
Don't ask me, because I don't know why
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
I'd hope she lives long enough to see the dollar turn to dogshit but she and his vulture husband probably have tons of assets decoupled from the US economy so I just hope they die ASAP tbh
We always root for our country under any circumstance.
and we'll root root root for the hooooome team
at the oooooooold baaaaaal gaaaame!
actually according to the regime this is not a war, just an active operation in the CENTCOM area of responsibility, so idgaf Mr President.
small potatoes!
What a loser
Fuck her
I wish she would do us all the courtesy of dying already
Confirmed mitch mconnell is still alive
https://x.com/big_business_/status/2099622163489693761
Proves my thought that anytime there is this big hype around someone dying and everyone around them is trying to hide it, its never been the case. Once someone is dead, its announced practically immediately.
Unless it's a sitting U.S. Senator dying in a Russian airstrike in Ukraine. In that case they'll get the body home and announce the death to "natural causes" the next day.
They gave him energy like to a Chals Demon by believing in him still being alive.
He's clearly stroked the fuck out. Like, look at him lol.
It's questionable how much he's actually there.
Winning the difficult title of most neurological degeneration in the senate
He is alive in the same way Coral is alive
Goddamnit. Well, I think I still get points for saying "There's no such thing as artificial intelligence at this point in time." I mean, look at those eyes. There's not (never been) anything going on in there.
to be fair it didn't seem like anyone in that video was sure if he was alive or not
Zoom in and see if you can see a string attached to the thumb. LOL.
right like what is the point of delaying this information? it's 100% inevitably going to get out and you pass up your personal opportunity to be the successor
I think there actually was some incentive here around delaying his date of theoretical death as it related to their governor (Democrat) vs. state legislature (Republican) being the one to appoint a replacement. State legislature seized that power at some point and the bill came into effect like a few weeks after he was hospitalized which caused a lot of the initial conversation/conspiracy
Zhao Gao’s schemes surrounding the death of worked out okay
well sure, if you're literally a scheming eunuch you could pull off something like that
Protests have broken out in Syria over rising fuel costs:
Syria is being presented internationally as a potential gateway for other countries’ energy supplies while its own population is struggling with rising fuel costs and the government is forced to increase prices largely because it cannot produce enough petroleum to meet domestic demand.
For al-Sharaa’s government, the danger is not simply that fuel prices have become unpopular. The episode tests whether an administration that came to power promising reconstruction and economic recovery can maintain public support while imposing policies that, however financially necessary, immediately raise the cost of living.
https://southfront.press/fuel-protests-exposes-syrias-economic-struggles-videos/ (videos included)
"however financially necessary" 🤪
“Today, we continue to ensure we remain ready to meet the challenges of evolving threats wherever they exist,” Mink said during a speech at an Air & Space Forces Association (AFA) conference in Maryland. “This is why the United States now has, on-orbit, space-control weapons capable of defending the joint force against hostile adversary action.”
https://www.commondreams.org/news/space-weapons
militarization of space? i'll take two
capable of defending the joint force against hostile adversary action
WSJ - Oil Executives Say the Great Fuel Crisis Is Here
Trump officials say the oil-market disruption is temporary, but Chevron’s Mike Wirth and others warn global supplies are running low, with no respite in sight
::: spoiler Full text American oil executives warned for months that the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz was bound to cause a fuel crisis. Now, they say it is here.
Commercial fuel stocks around the world have been depleting for more than six months, and strategic crude reserves can’t be tapped much further. Attacks last week shut down a crucial crude pipeline in Saudi Arabia that bypassed the Strait, stranding at least 2.5 million barrels a day from an already tight global oil market, analysts estimate.
“All these mechanisms helped to mitigate the price and supply risk,” Chevron Chief Executive Mike Wirth said Friday at an energy conference in Austin, Texas. “Those have largely now played out, and we don’t have nearly the buffers in the system that we did when it began.”
It is hard to predict where oil prices will go, he added, but at the moment, it is difficult to envision prices coming back down quickly. “I wish I could tell you that I saw some reason why things would ease, but it’s difficult right now to see that happen,” he said.
Veteran energy advisers say that with no resolution to the Iran war in sight, the situation risks spinning out of control. Diesel prices have soared to a record $6.23 a gallon and gasoline prices, which slipped below $4 a gallon this summer, have rebounded to $4.32. Some energy analysts say they have been fielding investor questions about when consumers pinched by the high prices will start pulling back on new purchases.
The Trump administration has repeatedly promised Americans that prices at the pump would decline and that energy flows out of the Middle East would keep increasing.
Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said at a Houston G-20 event on Monday that “the prices in the prior administration were this high anyway” and that Americans would have paid those prices permanently because former President Joe Biden was “pursuing a policy of energy subtraction and shutting down refineries.”
“If you want to write about the prices, make sure you include the word ‘temporary’ because this is a temporary disruption,” Burgum told reporters.
The White House sees two big levers it can pull to help ease prices: boosting production in Venezuela and increasing U.S. fuel-making capacity. In recent months, U.S. officials have focused on striking deals that are expected to bolster Venezuela’s oil production. In early September, they met with U.S. refining executives to discuss raising the nation’s fuel-making capacity. They are pleased with progress thus far on both fronts, a senior U.S. official said.
Energy executives and White House officials say they have had a continuing dialogue about the energy situation since the conflict broke out, and CEOs including Wirth talk to Energy Secretary Chris Wright frequently.
But Wirth said Friday that he hadn’t talked to President Trump since Aug. 3, when the president said in a Truth Social Post that the CEO hadn’t credited his administration for the oil industry’s good fortunes. Trump called on Chevron and oil companies to bring “consumer (retail!) Oil Prices DOWN, NOW!”
Some CEOs and energy advisers say they have grown alarmed in recent weeks as the conflict has picked back up, with ships and energy infrastructure being targeted in both directions.
“The advantage in most negotiations usually goes to the side that has time on their side, and is willing to be patient,” said Wil VanLoh, founder and CEO of Quantum Capital Group, during the Austin conference. Iran, he said, “is willing to suffer. Their people have already suffered a lot for many decades.”
China is in part helping to fuel the global supply pinch. The world’s largest oil importer for months had relied on its own stockpiles of crude for nearly half of its daily consumption, providing a reprieve for oil markets. But in recent weeks, it has resumed bigger purchases from international suppliers, analysts said.
U.S. crude prices have jumped 19% in the past three weeks to trade near $101 a barrel as attacks in the Middle East multiply. Iran has targeted oil tankers traversing the Strait, even after Trump and his lieutenants boasted about escorting several vessels undetected through the waterway. Houthi militants have recently launched attacks from Yemen on Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure and military sites and damaged the East-West pipeline that stretched from the Abqaiq oil field to Yanbu al-Bahr, a major Saudi port city, on the Red Sea.
Trump has vowed to impose economic pressure on Iran and ruled out sending boots on the ground. He has said he expects the war will last until the November midterm elections, but investors say they believe the war will go well beyond that.
“That was the signal this is going to stretch on,” said Dan Pickering, founder of Pickering Energy Partners, a financial firm.
Meanwhile, he said, diesel supplies are tight because of refinery outages following conflicts in the Middle East and Russia. Demand for the fuel is expected to increase as farmers that use it for heavy equipment enter harvest season. “Diesel has no easy solution,” Pickering said.
Trump has said Ukraine must halt strikes on Russia that endanger global supplies of diesel.
In March, the CEOs of the three largest U.S. oil companies, ExxonMobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips, warned Trump officials, including Burgum and Wright, that a prolonged closure of the Strait could lead to a shortfall in refined products such as diesel, The Wall Street Journal reported at the time. Some executives have been privately critical of Trump’s handling of the conflict.
At the conference Monday, Burgum rejected persistent speculation that the White House is seriously weighing a temporary ban on U.S. exports of refined products such as diesel. Trump’s team, he said, doesn’t believe such a move would quell prices.
“We will do anything that helps the price at home,” Burgum said. “But we’re also going to be smart about it, and not just have some idea that if we stop exporting, that somehow magically is going to help the prices.”
:::
https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/oil-executives-say-the-great-fuel-crisis-is-here-b6b32030
Iran, he said, “is willing to suffer. Their people have already suffered a lot for many decades.”
and whose fault is that, huh?
Wow. I didn’t know that. I just — you’re telling me now for the first time.
It was an amazing carbon-based economy. What else can you say? It was an amazing economy. Whether you agree or not, it was an amazing carbon who created an amazing economy. I’m actually saddened to hear that. I am saddened to hear that.
♫ Ballerina, you must've seen her ♫
♫ Dancing in the sand ♫
In early September, they met with U.S. refining executives to discuss raising the nation’s fuel-making capacity. They are pleased with progress thus far on both fronts, a senior U.S. official said.
So far they're ~3% higher than this time last year. Less than 1/5th needed to make-up for the recent Yanbu pipeline disruption and nowhere close to making up for the SoH.
Amazing, i hope they bomb another pipeline
Russian strikes are complicating Kiev regime military logistics:
Systematic elimination of gas stations hampers the Ukrainian military’s ability to resupply its forward positions. Ukrainian supply convoys are now forced to include fuel trucks to reach their destination without running dry, which in turn makes them more vulnerable to Russian attacks.
Disruption of Ukrainian military’s fuel supply also means that Ukrainian troops in the field find it more difficult to refuel their power generators, which will become a serious problem for them when winter chill settles in.
https://sputnikglobe.com/20260914/ukraines-fuel-reserves-and-military-might-bled-by-precise-russian-strikes-expert-1124738380.html
In related news, RT states that there is no confirmation regarding Trump's claims on social media about a pause on these strikes. Check the RT subtitle:
Neither Moscow nor Kiev has confirmed any agreement not to target the other’s diesel-related infrastructure
https://www.rt.com/news/645721-trump-ukraine-russian-energy-strikes/
Yemen update, latest detailed map of the Taizz front:
Slowly but surely, Ansarallah (the Houthis) continue to advance, both south west of Taizz city and in the Bab Al-Mandab area. Yesterday’s PLC counteroffensive against Dhubab and Murad has been decisively defeated.
- Middle East Spectator
Leading political parties in Scotland, Wales, and North Ireland have released a memorandum announcing their intent to leave the UK and rejoin the EU
Lol they all got sick and tired of the English complaining about "tHe TrAnSgEnDeRs" every three minutes.
Probably in the same vein as Elon Pissbucket yelling at JK Rowling to shut up.
Lol they all got sick and tired of the English complaining about "tHe TrAnSgEnDeRs" every three minutes.
scotland is not in debt to england's transphobia
Would the EU accept them? Wouldn't it set a precedent for other independentist regions within the EU like Catalonia? Or is it different because Brexit somehow?
They are still looking to leave "legally", i.e. Westminster approves a referendum then negotiates and approves the actual exit. Spain has already said they would be fine with that. Catalonia has no "legal" way to secede because the Spanish constitution doesn't allow it, so it isn't really comparable to Scotland and would still not have precedent.
Kinda dumb if the EU ever accepted that, seeing as it's an adherent of a lot of charters of human rights that formally include the right to self determination.
I think many EU countries have constitutions or laws that make secession illegal. "Self determination" ends where the "territorial integrity" of Western nations begins.
Or is it different because Brexit somehow?
Potentially? Looks good for the EU if the one member state that decided to leave later balkanizes for the privilege of rejoining.
I think it's also different because Scotland had a close referendum already immediately before brexit happened, and iirc Scotland was a region that voted remain
something like 60% remain in Scotland, yes.
Or is it different because Brexit somehow?
Of course its different because of Brexit. England voted to leave the EU. If Catalonia leaves Spain, then first it has to leave the EU and then be admitted back into the common market with Spain's acquiescence.
I think the EU could reasonably accept it if England accepts it. The Catalonians would try to get a new referendum of their own regardless and the Spanish might block the breakaway states from joining the EU until after they screw over Catalonias new bid for independence.
Northern Ireland independence instead of Reunifaction sounds cursed
This is just the way Sinn Fein has sidestepped the sectarian debates around reunification. I'm pretty certain they would immediately hold a referendum on joining the ROI if they became independent. Especially as any legal process towards independence (assuming the UK would even let secession happen) would be as long & protracted as Brexit, so there would be time to arrange a 2nd referendum (or, fuck it why not, a 3rd just for giggles)
Northern Ireland reunifies with Scotland and Wales
Broke: Irish Unification
Woke: Independent Dál Riata
The United Celtic Republic
the capital will be the island of man the same way panama is the capital of hispanic america
Makes sense, I hear the craic is ninety over there.
imagine the religion which they'll arrive at
::: spoiler spoiler american protestantism of course :::
Libs are already claiming that this is a Russian scheme
but the UK is the prison of nations!
The same libs who call for balkanizing "bad countries" under the guise of supporting self-determination, now predictably oppose it when it happens to a country in the Collective West.
But…don’t liberals think that Russia also caused brexit? Did the Russians change their minds?
Russia is playing both sides and causing chaos. It doesn't matter if this scheme succeeds, all that matters is that they further destabilized a proud European nation.
Fucking Russians keep injecting History back in every time we end it
Anything bad that happens to England is Russia's fault
Reductive. It's actually mostly the fault of trans jamaican pakistanis, unless it's got something to do with the EU.
i was hoping they'd balkanize in ways we'd get new flags out of it but this is good too.
Game of Thrones 2: Electric Boogaloo
To throw off the shackles of the crown in order to join another decaying imperialist union. 🤡
the neoliberal shock doctrine that would be imposed on the Scottish and Welsh state's would be grueling. maybe in 2016, the idea of rejoining the EU through independence was a sensible economic decision over clinging to the remnant of British industry. By the time independence were to be achieved now, any new state would be expected to help foot the bill of the Franco-German war machine.
Exactly. The working class would once again be seized by the throat, as mandated by EU law, while the imperial death machine goes into overdrive.
Scottish Secretary of State has already come out against it. Twitter link
Doesn't sound surprising, wouldn't he lose his salary and nice job if Scotland became independent
nah cuz he'd be absolutely be made a lord, which is somehow less work than an MP yet more money
I do not understand this L word thing. But it sounds fishy.
Almost like it's a holdover from a sadder time with a mustier smell.
What's the mood like in these countries for independence? Do you think referendums in the near future are likely?
No. There's limited political will to actually demand a referendum, despite this MOU. Plaid is on power for the first time ever so, as with any party newly incumbent to power, they won't try anything big because power for it's own sake is the ultimate goal.
SNP has fuck all spine to try another referendum alone. Sturgeon had years to call a 2nd referendum after winning multiple elections on that mandate, then effectively handed it all over to Labour after sitting on the issue (Westminster said no :/// ).
NI is the closest with Sinn Féin being somewhat politically motivated towards the end goal of reunification. And even then, the risk of sectarian violence can be a very strong tempering force for those on the fence.
I don't think it will happen by way of a vote, unfortunately. The British state has no constitution and effectively holds total power over when and where these referenda happen, if at all. It constructs the best scenario to let the voters spaff their energy into affirming the status quo (2014, tho 2016 was an oopsie). The state will not legislate itself away, especially under a hardline govt like the one that will follow Labour (well, likely to follow).
I'd say not only that but they're almost certainly carrying out active intelligence operations against these kinds of things after the relatively close call with Scotland. They will blackmail, manipulate, bully, bribe, and coerce politicians and others to ensure these things are smothered or stillborn. The tactics they've been using against Ireland for reunification after the open violence died down will almost certainly be applied elsewhere.
Sturgeon was likely coerced by some intelligence op to that extent. She had cops rummage through her home, a cordon set up, then "nothing found" when she steps down? Sounds like the usual state blackmail/harassment of a political figure.
Which is why I don't think there's necessarily the political will to move towards a unilateral secession from the English state. She was the most popular secessionist by far, and politically the SNP was more entrenched into the Scottish political system than either of its pan-Celtic equivalents. Despite that, the attempts at a 2nd referendum was easily stalled by Westminster, and her personal role in the movement was shuttered with state pressure anyway.
🏴 Plaid Cymru (pr. "Ply-d Cum-Ree") is run by a similar brand of progressive neoliberals as Leanne Wood unfortunately stepped down years ago😮💨 Not only that, but the recent trans NHS controversy shows us just how limited their reach into the Welsh proto-state really is. A single Tory AS (Aelod o'r Senedd, pr. "A-lod or Sen-ev"), whose party was almost wiped out by Reform UK in 2025, was able to eliminate NHS surgical care for trans people overnight. Like like an assistant manager to the assistant manager making mass layoffs.
Plaid has yet to reverse the policy, despite the NHS being a "devolved issue" - one of the few areas where the Senedd can legislate independently of the English state. I also don't believe Plaid is necessarily 100% down for a protracted trans rights spat that the English-owned press can smell the blood in the water over (hell, a few of their sitting AS are transphobes), but it says a lot about how much freedom the Welsh proto-state has, and how much the sitting govt. is willing to push against English-imposed policy-by-proxy.
Finally, it must be noted that Plaid is a minority govt. in Wales, and would either need to win bigger in 2030 (could go either way as Reform has momentum also) or achieve support from the English-owned parties. A few Labour AS are pro-secession, as Labourism was/is endemic to Welsh politics, but only the Green Party is pro secession on principle, and only has 2 of the 10 seats needed to close the current gap.
🇮🇪 Sinn Féin is probably the closest to some sort of secession, or similar to Scotland but on an upwards trajectory. They also have the most political will to take things towards militancy - not necessarily insurgency, but in terms of establishing dual power over the English state. There's isn't much that the "We were the first colonies" rhetoric of Wales and Scotland has done better for secessionism versus the barrel of British rifles pointed at children.
That being said, sectarianism is deeply ingrained into the North, and the British state will gladly stoke the flames if it paralyses the NI assembly more than it has been already. The assembly itself has sectarianism designed into it through the (self-)designation of members by "nationalist" and "unionist" identity.
How much can SF bet on Scotland and Wales to support it should self-defense become necessary? I would put money on the British state being more willing to engage in 2nd round of botched counter-insurgency over peacefully conceding even a square mile of their colonial spoils.
That being said, this is simply a memorandum. of course there is likely and understanding of this current material reality within Belfast, Cardiff, and Edinburgh. This is something which will unfold over many years to come.
In my semi-informed opinion as a Welshman engaged with the movement when I lived in Wales, is that the trajectory is still heading towards a dismantlement of the United Kingdom, unilateral or otherwise. And not in a "history leans towards liberation" hopium way, but because the British state is nothing but centuries of blood, lead, and asbestos formed into an acidic sludge that is eroding its hold on global imperialism, let alone its ability to govern domestically.
However, I am tempering my spirits - on the understanding that no empire leaves its fortifications without violence, and said violence would likely exceed the levels endured in the Occupied 6. No doubt the same is said of capitalism itself, but fascism will be the final guard dog of this rotten monarcho-potemkin "democracy".
Probably not but I hope so as it'd be really funny.
no referenda until 1-2 elections out, they all hinge on westminster being dogshit. these are all social democrat parties who compete with labour, which has a better outlook right now. if labour shit the bed and reform get in we might see a rush to organize referenda--especially if farage goes after devolution, which at least the wales branch of reform was doing last election.
so uhh, check back in a year and a few grains
Pump Station 9 on the Saudi East-West pipeline not looking great either. [edit] obligatory: "Is this good?"
Account @EGYOSINT speculates that a third pumping station might be slightly damaged as well, but images are too low res.
Iran claims to have shot down three MQ-1 drones last week, the US usually send those out on suicide missions before they plan to strike targets.
I've seen claims that a ship "struck a mine" in SoH and is on fire. Not sure what is up with that.
Sometimes the soot fairy comes and leaves her gift of pitch-black circles of soot to bless industrial facilities with good luck, it's nothing to worry about
🇮🇷 IRGC Navy: — The supertanker "El Gaya," maritime identification number 9325336, which intended to cross the prohibited area in the southern Strait of Hormuz, exploded after striking naval mines. Efforts to contain the fire were futile, and the entire tanker has been engulfed in flames.
A warning had previously been issued regarding the danger of this illegal transit route. The Strait of Hormuz is closed and remains under our smart control.
Bonus
High res Saudi oil p0rn -
We will continue to use laden tankers as minesweepers until oil prices return to normal
We need a zapp brannigan emoji to go with a quip about sending wave after wave of men into the kill bot swarm
Has something happened to the means of emoji production? Output seems way down lately
Unfortunately Marco Rubio is in control of our emoji production and will only be distributing a small percentage of our emojis back to us at his discretion
DAMN YOU, DELCY RODRIGUEZ!! 🤬✊
Whatever it is, I am willing to put wave after wave of ~~men~~ ships at your disposal.
Homophobic IRGC bombs the gaya
It is not supposed to look like that
No need to worry. Patriots are in control.
I'm sure it's fine. Oil will just materialize into our gas tanks, production isn't important
Shhh. The Market Doesn't Care™.
It's the law of suggest and demand. Duh. Anyone who took Econ 101 knows that.
Production. That’s a commie word, isn’t it?
Sounds a little too adjacent to labor
New SPR numbers have been released:
Retrieval appears to have slowed to a crawl, with only 0.6M barrels taken out. It might be because they're getting very close to some theoretical operational limits where caverns start to crumble down due to the water.
Then again it might be something else; I've read some analysis suggesting that it might be because of the lack of demand given the conditions they offer; apparently the way the SPR works is the government offers the oil almost for free but you're obligated to put back what you get +N% after months/years. So the lack of oil retrieval might mean US companies do not believe oil will be cheaper in the future anymore, and prefer to buy on the market. No idea how true that is though this is a pdf of the last SPR auction and it certainly appears to support that (with a single company "buying" 500K barrels from the SPR out of 40M barrels being offered). I have no idea how reliable all of this is, more informed comments are welcome.
I still don't understand how the energy shock hasn't hit, or hit harder.
I still don't understand how the energy shock hasn't hit, or hit harder.
This video claims it is mostly due to China cutting their oil imports in half (and using over a billion barrels stockpiled from Iran and Russia to do it):
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
Doesn't seem to have updated yet for the week ending on 9/11, but draw for the week ending on 9/4 also had very little draw and seems the biggest change was export. Exports dropped by ~7.5 million barrels/week (-1066 thousand barrels/day)
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/table1.pdf
From a market-faced analysis, it would follow that the US, a net oil exporter, is now facing prices that are high enough domestically to make exporting less profitable. is that something people smarter than me have measured already?
Part of the massive drawdown in the US SPR was to effectively flood the the global oil market at a time when prices were high, with the added effect of shielding offshore industry from shortages which would reflect back to the US and its countless financial instruments that the global economy leans on.
I haven't tried looking at global prices, but I'd imagine the US is more able to handle higher prices than a lot of places, so it wouldn't be a surprise.
A big reason the US exports crude and imports crude is because the crude the US exports is generally considered easier to refine and therefore is more expensive and the crude they import is generally considered harder to refine and therefore is cheaper, but the US has built its refineries around processing that kind of crude. So if the US is no longer exporting, that suggests they're willing to pay more money for crude that their refineries are not optimized, which I'd assume (but don't really know) would lead to high crack spreads (which we are seeing). Unfortunately, global shortages aren't likely to hit the US the hardest.
I still don't understand how the energy shock hasn't hit, or hit harder.
I work in the energy market and you'll be delighted to know it's all fake
So like..... When does it finally end?
When does all the paper collapse under its own weight?
How can the treasury keep getting away with shorting oil futures without there being some sort of short squeeze?
How the fuck are they even able to keep it afloat still?
Are you saying there just literally isn't even any oil changing hands at all?
You never know when this is gonna stop working but you know it will
crashout intensifies
I've read some analysis suggesting that it might be because of the lack of demand given the conditions they offer; apparently the way the SPR works is the government offers the oil almost for free but you're obligated to put back what you get +N% after months/years.
Yea I wrote about this last week. Seems the most likely explanation. A bunch of companies now owe the SPR a lot of crude oil and the prices will just keep going up. My guess is that the Trump admin will either delay the repayment or just write it off entirely. IIRC if Trump declares and emergency, he can sell ~35M barrels of SPR directly on the open market, even more if he decides to yolo it and ignore federal law (because who cares, right).
Curious how many barrels have already been returned with interest from when they first started releasing it.
There’s a column for that in the table, and since the start of the war it’s 0.0 million barrels. With rounding that means <0.3%
Costco in the US is rationing motor oil purchases by customers, and doubling prices. Two purchases per customer per week is the current limit.
we will enter the coolzone when they have purchase limits on costco hotdogs
there's some chief executive in Costco HQ holding a revolver to his chest because he's just been shown a dossier explaining how long the company can afford to keep subsidising the damn hotdogs
$5 per quart is actually pretty cheap. Buy it by the quart at a gas station or autoparts store and you'll probably pay like $10-15.
This is motor oil - the dense stuff you put in the engine to make sure the pistons and stuff don’t burn up. Not gasoline - the stuff the engine burns to make the car go.
Burgerland has fallen
All her merchants stand with wonder,
What is this that comes to pass:
Murm’ring like the distant thunder,
Crying, “Oh alas, alas.”
Swell the sound, ye kings and nobles,
Priest and people, rich and poor;
~~Babylon~~ Burgerland is fallen to rise no more.
"I hope everyone realizes that price increases throughout America were caused by Sleepy Joe Biden and the Biden Administration, not by "TRUMP. Even Oil was higher under Biden than it is right now, and we prevented Iran from having a Nuclear Weapon! With the temporary exception of Oil, prices are coming down sharply, and Oil will drop like a rock as soon as the Military Conflict with Iran is over, and that will not be long. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP"
God every tweet from him lately is so pathetic. Loving it.
He's really struggling to find someone to blame this time. At this point you've gotta think the republicans getting demolished in the congressional midterms would actually soothe his ego a lot once the new representatives got sworn in.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will meet Egyptian President Abdelfattah El-Sisi tomorrow in Cairo Saudi Arabia will reportedly ask Egypt for help in confronting the Houthis.
- Middle East Spectator
The last time Egypt intervened in Yemen, Israel took advantage of their degradation to launch the 6 day war.
Another addition to the most useless defence pact in modern history? The "Mecca pact" of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey has provided zero deterrence value.
IIRC, the Saudis asked for help from the Mecca Pact, but they refused to help because they said the pact was about state vs. state war, and they consider the Houthis just an organization.
Also they said that (get ready for this) the pact doesn't cover preexisting conditions.
Spiritually American defense pacts
the vassals have learned a thing or two from the empire of terms and conditions
tbh that's a fair thing to say. plus, the mecca pact can probably argue that the saudis invaded yemen first
The historically dialectical method to escape all obligations
"This condition is not service related" ass pact
Is any state even deterred by the pact? I can't imagine Israel or Iran giving a damn if war broke out. Maybe India or Greece cares? But again I doubt it.
Israel doesn't care. I think the entire thing was created so the Saudis don't look like they're alone fighting two front wars against Iran and the UAE, and that actually is Iran who's alone in the world.
and that actually is Iran who's alone in the world.
Iranian diasporoids certainly view it that way.
I can't imagine India getting involved
It's a little known fact that the Egyptians are actually better than the US military at using the very same US military technology that failed against Ansarallah twice before
do we have less experience? yes
do we have less advanced tech? yes
do we have lower stocks of everything? yes
do we have lower domestic support and an extremely fragile political climate? yes
are we directly exposed to the military response? yes
but despite that, have we got the gumption to see it through? no
It is almost like the "do something" button isn't connected to anything.
(The Cradle) "This year, given the current situation, there is no one left from our Christian brothers in the village. We are ringing the bell ourselves, and this bell will keep ringing in the village."
On the occasion of the Feast of the Cross, a Muslim resident of the southern Lebanese town of Blat stepped in to ring the local church bell because ongoing Israeli aggression forcibly displaced the village's Christian population:
"This country will remain a symbol of coexistence; Muslims and our Christian brothers. Every year on a day like this, there used to be celebrations, and the church bell would ring all night long. This year, given the current situation, there is no one left from our Christian brothers in the village. We are ringing the bell ourselves, and this bell will keep ringing in the village." (https://t.me/thecradlemedia/67918)
Are 100% refinery utilization and skipped spring maintainance a good idea? Time will tell!
ExxonMobil's 275,000 barrel per day Joliet oil refinery in Illinois has suffered a "total power outage," with heavy black smoke from emergency flaring visible for miles,
Ed Sheeran tour drops Macklemore after his onstage support for Palestine | The Needle Drop
::: spoiler article Rapper Macklemore is a vocal supporter of Palestine and Gaza residents. During a recent concert at MetLife Stadium, he yelled "Free Palestine!" onstage, projected images of devastation in the area, and performed protest song "Hind's Hall."
Now, it seems that American venues are not willing to play ball with the Seattle artist, and he has been dropped from Ed Sheeran's Loop Tour.
"After discussions with stakeholders, Macklemore will not be performing on the remaining support dates," according to Messina Touring Group, the promoter of Loop Tour. This news follows backlash from organizations like StopAntisemitism and others, such as pop star Pink.
Macklemore took time to rebuke critics who may dub him antisemitic, declaring to Jewish audience members at the concert after his initial "Free Palestine!" exclamation that "Criticism of Israel [sic] [and] being against genocide in no way is a criticism of you." Now, he will not appear at his slated eight of ten shows on the U.S. leg of Sheeran's run.
The North American dates on Sheeran's tour will head through the fall until early November, and will be supported by Lukas Graham and Aaron Rowe. :::
::: spoiler statement from Macklemore, apparently from his Facebook. Supposedly some NFL stadium owners rallied to get Macklemore out. Sheeran and him have fundamental differences, i wonder what they are exactly ...
"I’m going to speak from the heart and share the truth. Ed Sheeran and his team have made the decision to remove me from The Loop tour. But before I get into it, I want to say something that should be obvious. In this moment I think it matters. I am not a victim. Ed Sheeran is not a victim. Pink is not a victim. We have careers, money, opportunities, safety and audiences around the world. Whatever consequences any of us face for what we say, we get to go home to our families.
The victims are the Palestinian people. The men, women and children who have been killed, starved, displaced and forced to live through unimaginable violence. More than 20,000 children have been killed in Gaza alone. People are being killed today, and people will be killed tomorrow. I want to make sure that as I tell this story, we don’t lose sight of that.
Last Monday, in the middle of all the media attention surrounding Pink and what I said at MetLife, Ed told me that Robert Kraft called him. We were scheduled to play Gillette Stadium later this month, which is owned by the Kraft Group. Ed told me that Kraft said I would not be allowed to perform in his stadium. Ed also told me that Kraft had rallied some of the other stadium owners and collectively they gave him an ultimatum: if Macklemore stays on the tour, you will not be allowed to play in our venues.
Ed was in a fucked up position. He knew it. His typical apolitical stance was being challenged in a way it never had been before. He told me that the words “Free Palestine” and the image of the Palestinian flag were hurtful to a lot of people he spoke with. I told him that if those words were more offensive than tens of thousands of Palestinian children being killed by Israel, then there was a fundamental disconnect between where those people stood and where I stood. But he couldn’t get past his public facing, “I don’t take sides.
And I get why people don’t. Taking a side can cost you. Money, brand deals, sponsorships, festivals, private shows, relationships and access. I’ve lost all of those things. But there is no neutral position between the oppressor and the oppressed. When one side has the bombs and bottomless financial and military support from America, refusing to take a side doesn’t leave you in the middle.
What I said at MetLife I have been saying on stages around the world for almost three years. So why is it an issue now? Because now I'm sharing a stage with one of the biggest artists in the world, in some of the biggest stadiums in America. At a certain level of exposure, "Free Palestine" becomes too much of a risk. If I kept doing the shows, saying Free Palestine, with Ed implicitly supporting it, the crowd getting loud and showing undeniable support for Palestinian liberation, what artist might speak out next? The stage becomes resistance. Maybe that's why this time it became so important to silence me.
And one of the most effective ways to enforce that silence has been to weaponize the accusation of antisemitism. Antisemitism is real. And that is exactly why the word matters too much to be used as a shield against criticism of the Israeli state. When criticizing Israel, opposing Zionism or saying "Free Palestine" gets conflated with hatred of Jewish people, it doesn't protect Jewish people. It protects Israel from accountability.
Who is winning the internet, who is getting canceled, who gets to play the stadium and who doesn't, all of it becomes so small when held against what we are actually witnessing in Gaza and the West Bank. An entire people being displaced, starved and killed while the world debates which words we are allowed to use to describe it, how those words make us feel, and whether our discomfort matters more than the people living through a genocide.
I didn't need 10 shows from Ed. I needed 2. Two chances to stand in front of 90,000 people and say the words that somehow became too dangerous to say. Free Palestine. But if those words cost me the stage, while turning the conversation back to Palestine, then it was the most successful tour I've ever been on
:::
Yet another example that staying "neutral" is siding with the oppressor. Ed Sheeran is a fucking coward that is choosing money over human lives.
Haven't really listened to his music (and low key blame his song "thrift shop" for thrifting getting shittier over the past decade-ish) but he has a better moral compass than 99% of the soulless ghouls that make a living in entertainment
Macklemore is so cool wth
He really is about it
Great statement, says what it needs to but keeps the focus where it should be. Message discipline.
The North American dates on Sheeran's tour will head through the fall until early November, and will be supported by Lukas Graham and Aaron Rowe.
There's a word for people who gleefully fill in the roles left when the capitalists lay off anyone who causes problems. Scabs.
it would be cool if the macklemore replacement acts also stood up and said free palestine
This is so pathetic. Why would he even agree to tour with him if he wasn't down with Palestine? It's all Macklemore has talked about for years at this point, it wasn't exactly a secret. Just shows that Ed Sheeran is a coward who folds to pressure.
Seriously, he's cancelled shows/had them cancelled for him over his support for Palestine before, why bother booking his as part of your show when he has a track record of (rightly) putting Palestine over performing
(MPN) Saudi Proxy Forces In Yemen Proudly Announced The Downing Of A Drone…
It was soon after revealed to be a CH-4 UAV operated by Saudi Arabia. In other words, they shot down their own sides drone & made a video celebrating it, thinking it belonged to Ansarallah. (https://t.me/mintpress_news/15573)
No but you see THIS time we can use mercenaries to substitute for very weak conventional forces and it will work out for us
MBS should've read "I Fucking Warned You Dude I Told You Bro" by Niccolo Machiavelli.
Same day Saudi Arabia mistook a bunch of these dudes for AnsarAllah and bombed them. The YAF is the only force that isn't blindly shooting at everyone lmao
I’ll grant that this is probably something to chalk up to them all being basically dumbasses, but… I watched that 38minutr Ansar Allah media video about them taking mocha (molka?) and the last 15 minutes was the victorious forces showing off all the swank gear they appropriated from the fleeing Mercs, including various types of quad drones. All that to say, IFF is gonna be increasingly tricky as this proceeds because Ansar allah picked up a ton of their equipment and vehicles this last week, and I can’t imagine they’re not gonna play with some of it.
xcancel is down again, thanks elon
BBC: Member of UK armed forces dies in road traffic incident in Ukraine
Imagine dying while epically protecting smol bean Ukraine and they just report that you wrapped your car around a tree.
Imagine dying while epically protecting smol bean Ukraine and they just report that you wrapped your car around a tree.
I'm surprised that the BBC didn't blame Russia for it, on the basis that it may have been planted during the days of the USSR.
Even funnier possibility is that after all the time spent training, arming, and fighting alongside Ukrainians against le ruzzian orcs, the thing that killed him was wrapping his car around a tree unprovoked.
Drunk driving is a proud colonial occupier tradition, you can't just insult British culture like that
They'd get a sepoy to drive them around in the old days, having to drive drunk himself is a sign of how far the British have fallen
"oi, mate. fancy a cheeky lil drinky drivey?"
The incident on Saturday was not the result of hostile action, the BBC understands.
ok so the drone chasing his car doesn't count?
They need to print off a few tshirts for their spokespeople to wear so everyone will stop asking all these questions
My "I'm not a soulless stenographer for White Empire" Tshirt has a lot of people asking questions already answered by my shirt.
Lol. Lmao, even.
News adjacent post, sorry: Saw someone post this here a while ago, this nitter instance still seems to be working https://nitter.kareem.one/ Does seem to get rate limited a bit often though but you can usually just refresh
Edit: a few more:
This one has also been working steadily even during the first downtime: https://nitter.perennialte.ch/
also, https://nitter.tiekoetter.com/ and https://nitter.privacyredirect.com/, both without cloudflare!
Ty AltMaarri and ourtimewillcome for additional links
This one has also been working steadily even during the first downtime: https://nitter.perennialte.ch/
also, https://nitter.tiekoetter.com/ and https://nitter.privacyredirect.com/, both without cloudflare!
Oh shoot nice, even better
Jesus we really are in World War IV
Sir sir sir we NEED to open another front. We NEED to lose another fifty bajillion officers to "hiking accidents"
It's like they've been assigned to live test every nation said to have a great missile program
a coalition of 50 antiwar antiwar and foreign policy groups reached out to the top Democrats on the House Foreign Affairs Committee with an unusual plea: Please don’t attack President Trump—at least not for his decision to de-escalate tensions with North Korea
Antiwar? The fuk lmao
Am I misinterpreting this? Saying Trump shouldn't be criticized for de-escalation specifically sounds like a valid antiwar sentiment.
I started typing this out with more confidence but you're currently at eight upbears so either I can't read or it's everyone else who is wrong.
Ok yeah brain fart on my part. Thanks for pointing that out.
Iraqi resistance rejects Saudi pipeline accusations, demands government present evidence | The Cradle [Sep 12]
The resistance called the Saudi accusations a distraction from Riyadh's losses in Yemen, and challenged its own government to produce evidence for the claims it had adopted
Ansarallah has not taken credit afaik. so who struck the east-west pipeline, then? zionist false flag? I'm having trouble imagining the motivation
what if pipelines just do that when they're stressed
My gut says it was Ansarallah but I do not think AA minds the Saudis blaming the PMF in Iraq at all. If they keep silent and if the Saudis keep pushing the PMF, it could escalate and then another front opens against the Zionists and collaborators. Even if the Saudis know damn well it was AA and they're just trying to save face and have no intentions of striking back, it still puts Baghdad government in a terrible position internally vs the PMF
the most fun one would be internal saudi dissenters but idk if that exists in "how to blow up a pipeline" force
US covert operation to block oil flow to China is a possibility. The whole Yemen situation really does not sit right with me.
Wouldn't be the first time they blew up an ally's pipeline for geopolitical purposes...
Also it was "US officials" who first claimed that the drones came from Iraq.
It was obviously either Ansarallah or Iraqi resistance groups, but if they both deny it I'm fine playing dumb :)
A chatGPT agent got loose!
Andromeda Yacht strikes again. No pipeline is safe.
they broke nitter again smdh :(
https://nitter.tiekoetter.com/ and https://nitter.privacyredirect.com/ still work.
Kill Israel
Replying to this comment from !darkcalling@hexbear.net:
I think we've gotten to the bottom of the disagreement. I think we agree about the strategy each side will employ and what the end game will be, we merely disagree about how effective the western powers will be at propping up the Ukrainians at this point in the conflict.
We agree they will throw everything they have at it, I think on my end I am just looking at the trends and the deindustrialization and the shrill panic and I don't see it going on too much longer...but it may be unknowable when that final collapse will truly come
Quagmire really is the word for it because the people who might have negotiated are now in too deep to feel like they can, the Nazis are emboldened to threaten anyone who might try with death IMO (and the west supports them in this). The west isn't going to pressure them to capitulate IMO. So just trying to wrap my head around how it can happen short of years more of punishment wearing down Ukraine until even a lot of the hardened Nazis no longer really want to fight OR Russia being forced to take most of the country and then figure out what the hell to do in that situation and how much they can pull back. And/or some sort of total destruction of the economy and country that leaves most of it in ruins.
I don't think citizen uprising against the Nazi dictatorship is in the cards near-term because the people are afraid of this government, the government is afraid of them, and the hardcore Nazis are more than willing to massacre people and the west is already using them as fodder so doesn't care either.
Right now Ukraine is active trying to destroy AES in Africa, working with the terrorists there, using their drone knowledge. So Ukraine is not simply Ukraine, it's a force multiplier, a special forces factory, a drone factory, a Nazi factory to use to destroy the global south and it very much is in the ambitions of the west to turn it into a European "israel" to use to contain and hurt Russia as the zionist entity was created for the Arabs and as Taiwan was created for China. And I think in that sense it's a real key part of western hegemony going into the next century that they won't easily give up on. So I think Russia's work is cut out for them and they have an incredible burden to undertake.
It seems to me it comes down to: "Is Russia successfully atriting the entire West in Ukraine?" or put another way "with every day that goes by do they destroy Western capacity for dirty war and salami slicing?"
I believe:
- Yes they definitely are pursuing this strategy
- It's working
- This is the main explanation for otherwise confusing actions by the Russians
Why do I think it's working?
- We know that every scrap of military hardware the West could possibly afford to give up is a smoking ruin or about to be
- We may never know the true extent but this conflict has drawn in and eliminated countless "operatives" and mercs that now can't go around destabilizing anywhere else
- European economic/industrial suicide
- The West is literally running out of money! The Euros took longer to come up with the 90B "loan" than it took the Ukrainians to blow through it.
- Russian military renaissance + buildup + battle hardening
- This conflict pushed Russia/China relations from quiet suspicion to "Their highest ever level"
- This conflict is literally trending towards destroying BOTH EU and NATO IMO, can you imagine?
EDIT: almost forgot that they sent the Azov nazis to Donbas as their last great defense. The Russians are surely salivating at the prospect of encircling and destroying them in a climactic siege
Ukraine has agreed not to hit Russian Energy targets. Russia has agreed to do, likewise! The World’s Diesel price rise is mostly caused by the Russia/Ukraine War, not Iran. President DJT
(https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117270009579288120 🤢)
i rest my case.
- I agree that if true this is technically a ceasefire
- I still argue that if these are the real terms this is actually a tactical victory for the Russians. The energy strikes were the very first escalation from the Ukrainians, and they have much less to lose in that area. I think this reads as Trump forcing them into a concession they definitely don't want because of the midterms, or put another way to resolve the imperial contradictions in one theater they have to sabotage their strategy in another
the tactical victory of allowing ukraine uninterrupted gas supplies for the frontlines, when in spring they will start striking again energy targets in sowing time? yeah, total victory, instead of porky interests overruling sense of preservation.
Weren't people just arguing that Russia qualitatively is changing the war by hitting energy, gas stations and logistics centers finally? Then when Russia agrees to a partial ceasefire now it's "that stuff doesn't matter anyway, Russia has more to lose"? I get a bit tired by this flip flopping
So I'm looking at it like: what would be the marginal next damage to the respective energy complexes and how would that affect the ongoing war effort in each case?
I do think it comes out close because the Russian strikes are far more effective. I still think in like an abstract strategic sense that giving up your first escalation for one of the enemy's final escalations is asymmetrical and disadvantageous
By the way I definitely believe that Putin is a lib by Russian standards and gives extreme deference to his local capitalists
ukraine advantage is that their supplies are unstrikeable, being in europe, and have to be delivered, russia is giving up one of its ways to interrupt that supply, because their porky masters tell them to, thus leading to continued stalemate. when ukraine is resupplied, they will inevitable break that truce in the spring. not to mention, there is plethora of targets for ukraine to hit economy of russia, not so much for russia because quarter of ukraine economy is getting eurobuxx, so it's asymmetric advantage, to ukraine.
Yeah I pretty much agree except for the two factors of European deindustrialization and Russia didn't agree to stop hitting bridges and locomotives, or to end the naval blockade so they are still putting extreme pressure on logistics even without hitting filling stations and natural gas
we have a very different meaning of the word extreme
european industrialization being shit doesn't stop them from having 3 times population of russia, so, they can be 3 times as shitty to reach parity.
Saudi Arabia is now firing Chinese made ballistic missiles at Ansar Allah/Houthi forces in Yemen.
The booster stage of a solid fueled Chinese made DF-15A ballistic missile landed in Raghwan, Marib.
Source for videos and images, xcancel mirror that still works, ignore inaccurate text
Saudi Arabia has had an interesting relationship with Chinese ballistic missiles, first buying liquid fueled DF-3A IRBMs in the 1980s, with that purchase suspected to have been complimented by Chinese solid fueled DF-21 MRBMs and DF-11 and DF-15 SRBMs in the mid 2000s. The DF-15A is now confirmed to be in the Saudi arsenal, so it is highly likely that the Saudis have the DF-21 and maybe even the DF-11 as well. It is speculated that the DF-15 missiles Saudi Arabia got were originally made for Syria. There are three upgraded models of the DF-15 in service. The A model with extended range and limited terminal homing/guidance capability, the B model with a Maneuverable Re-entry Vehicle (MaRV) and extensive terminal guidance (in my opinion by far the most useful model), and the C model to strike hardened targets. It is unknown if the Saudis possess B and/or C model DF-15s alongside their A models.
The Saudi Arabian Air Force continues to put up a pathetic amount of sorties in Yemen, only 50-60 airstrikes a day nevermind sorties. A single aircraft can carry out multiple airstrikes per sortie , an F-15 can hit up to 20 targets per sortie for an extreme example, just to put the abysmal performance of the Saudis into perspective (most likely due to incompetence, the Saudis don't even have spotters/JTACs on the ground in Yemen to actually guide tactical air power), which could explain the use of ballistic missiles now. The Saudis are the same military that used Storm Shadow cruise missiles to crater a runway, firing ballistic missiles at other targets just because they have them makes sense given their all round incompetence.
Are we going to have a situation here where different sides in these conflicts will all be using Chinese weapons to shoot each other because the only thing that China really cares about is Taiwan?
We are already in such a situation, the early stages. The UAE made substantial use of Chinese made weaponry (MALE UAVs) in strikes on Iran, and Iran has used Chinese made MANPADs to shoot down a low flying US F-15E. The RSF in Sudan have Chinese made air defence systems, which have gotten into engagements with Turkish MALE UAVs (the UAVs winning some, the air defence systems shooting down other aircraft. Chinese weapons will probably replace Soviet era weaponry in these kind of conflicts. I doubt that the Russians can compete with the Chinese in the arms market with the war in Ukraine among other issues, and the USA is restrictive with sales.
It's a less ideological but deadlier echo of Soviet arms exports. What is a ballistic missile if not a really big, fast, explosive, AK-47?
^thinking about it, most of these same countries still run substantial soviet exports, some of which are as technically advanced as these missiles and drones. It's just endless.^
They did that in the first year or two of the Russian Ukrainian war with drones. They're still kind of doing that as far as drone parts go. I think DJI has tripled in size since 2020.
The Saudis are the same military that used Storm Shadow cruise missiles to crater a runway
That doesn't seem like it'd do much, if any, permanent damage to a runway?
exactly, it's an expensive (2.5m per) munition and runway damage is reparable in a few hours with an earthmover and grading equipment
Reminds me of using a sidewinder to down a weather balloon lol
They even used an F-22 (their most expensive to use air frame), scoring its only ever combat kill lol
And then in Iran the F-22s didn't get any confirmed kills on Iranian fighters during their patrols, and were instead used to destroy S-300/Bavar-373 air defence systems with SDBs according to CENTCOM. And an Israeli F-35 got the first confirmed 5th gen fighter air to air kill to top it all off. The F-22 will probably retire without ever having shot down another manned aircraft.
You are right, it was all worth it to make number go up
Shit, huge China L...
The Saudis are always looking to buy the lastest military technology from anyone, like a rich kid at the toy store. Recently they were looking for a stealth fighter and weighed the US made F-35 vs the Chinese J-35, and signed some sort of deal for F-35s (which I highly doubt they'll get given recent events).
china needs to trade and can not effect political outcomes - it can not not trade with any nation or try to effect Geopolitical outcomes BECAUSE that would violate the central political pillar of china needing to trade. & and not to effect geopolitical Outcomes . there is great oppurtunities for Profit by selling the capitalist the rope to strangle global southern nations with. The chinese have read Marx so they know that Imperialsit Nation will be in constant deemand of Rope.
I rationally understand this, but fuck does it hurt to see this, kinda a materialist blow to my idealist hopes.
It's fine to mark it as a "China L" they can take it.
repeat ad infinitum. who will run out first, the rope or the "avthentic proletarian nations"
Not really, if they usurp military industrial supply that kneecaps western imperialism. Yeah, people will do bad things with the weapons but ultimately it means the USA can't do imperialism effectively as their industrial throughput of arms will crater. Imagine a world where the USA can't sell or give out m16s because they're too expensive, it might become so expensive that they can't give Israel freebies anymore. It also gives China tremendous leverage, at some point they could just simply stop supplying arms and kill off entire wars.
It also gives China tremendous leverage, at some point they could just simply stop supplying arms and kill off entire wars.
The US has always relied on vassalage for weapon sales, the USSR always offered cheaper and arguably better alternatives because they knew how to mass-produce (see the price of the T-54 and variants, the most widely manufactured tank in history).
Appreciate the information as always
how do they compare to iran's/usrael's
The DF-15 series of ballistic missiles are single stage ballistic missiles with a warhead that separates from the booster stage, with a range of 700-900km depending on the variant. The DF-15B is the most useful of them all, with it's MaRV, visually similar in appearance to the Pershing II MaRV, allowing for high accuracy in theory, and an ability to complicate ballistic missile defence (although modern ballistic missile defence systems are tested against MaRVs). As for a similar Iranian system in range and payload, the Zulfiqar and Dezful missiles would be comparable. Israel has the Air LORA air launched ballistic missile with a longer range than the ground launched LORA, and the USA the PrSM, though the PrSM is brand new, no stockpile, and uses a different kind of warhead, tungsten rain of sorts vs a more conventional blast fragmentation warhead. The DF-21 can be considered a two stage DF-15B if you want, with a substantial range increase. There are also air launched and anti ship variants of the DF-21. The Iranian Kheibar Shekan series of ballistic missiles are roughly comparable in range, and Iran recently unveiled an anti ship variant of it. The USA had the nuclear armed Pershing II, which is actually very similar in external appearance to the DF-21, but retried them all at the end of the cold war.
(although modern ballistic missile defence systems are tested against MaRVs)
that seems to contradict observed performance do we know how many the sauds have?
No idea how many the Saudis have, or even if they have MaRV equipped variants of the missiles.
The MaRVs are significantly harder to shoot down, but they can be intercepted. Ideally you'd want to shoot it before it starts maneuvering with a higher altitude/tier system like SM-3, Arrow 3 or THAAD, but that's not always possible (especially given ammunition shortages of these higher altitude systems, we were not in that territory previously, but we are there now). The latest lower altitude/terminal intercept systems such as SM-6 and PAC-3 CRI and MSE are still tested against MaRVs, but without the higher altitude systems to thin the herd of missiles incoming, can be overwhelmed more easily, and you have to hit a high speed maneuvering target.
For instance in the lastest missile barrage, Iran launched over 35-40 ballistic missiles of various types in a sophisticated multi layered attack (MaRV equipped, high altitude cluster munitions, non MaRV equipped) at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, with only PATRIOT appearing to engage, no higher altitude support. Even with a 90% intercept rate, that's 4 missiles leaking through and 80 interceptors fired at a rate of 2 interceptors per incoming missile... If those four missiles are accurate, and Iranian missiles appear to be significantly more accurate at longer ranges now, that's significant damage. Apparently 1x A-10C destroyed and 8x F-15Es sustaining shrapnel damage, just from the handful of missiles that got through of the 35-40 fired.
A full 2:30 video of that Iranian barrage vs interceptors
You can see the different types of trajectories the different kinds of Iranian missiles take, plus interceptions and missiles getting through. Missiles maneuvering, the interceptors responding to the maneuvers.
This is test footage of PATRIOT PAC-3 vs a Pershing-II target. This video really showcases just how much maneuvering goes on to intercept a MaRV, even in testing.
Breaking News: Second.
Going to borrow a comment from /r/trueanon here:
Insane how this completely unreasonable man will be surprisingly so reasonable about topics that no other American politician would be normal about lmao
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