I don't think anything on the Fediverse will "succeed" insofar as it supplanting a popular commercially owned platform. I welcome being proven wrong, but I also think it's fine if it doesn't.

Reddit... I don't have a prediction for. I mean likely it'll fall out of favor eventually. But probably not for their bad behavior. All the big platforms are behaving badly and people en masse continue to tolerate it.

Here's what I will say: I hope before it dies that it gets archived well. There is a lot of cool shit we all put there before it became poop. Internet history, forum answers, AMAs with cool people, etc. A lot of my search results still hit something from Reddit 6 years so or something.

So I hope that gets saved when the company burns to the ground...