Putin 'starting to understand he may not win' the war in Ukraine
(www.france24.com)
UkraineWithin Russia, the war has come under growing criticism as Ukraine has ramped up strikes inside the country and Russian casualties keep growing ... These deadly attacks are a 'sign of desperation' as Putin is realising he might not win the war.
Here is an Invidious alt for the video (4 min) inside the linked article.
It’s not a war it’s a three day special military operation
Maybe he didn't know that the hardest part of a three-day special military operation are the first few years.
Nah, Clausewitz already said: the hardest part of a three day operation is ending it after three days, no matter the result.
I wonder if Putin realizes he is making history as one of russia's dumbest leaders who threw away the nation's future?
Or does he still believe he hasn't missed the optimum moment to end the war by miles and miles and now he is desperately looking for road signs long gone?
This is all opinion and I may be misinformed, so take it with a grain of salt.
It is really sad when you think about how the beginning of the new millennium seemed an optimistic time in Russia when the economy was starting to pick up—albeit mostly in the wealthier western cities—but then Crimea happens and the recovery stalls under global sanctions. He should've got the message at that point, but no. He's such a cold warrior. He can't see any way for Russia to grow other than through conquest and putting in puppet governments everywhere.
And the worst part is now, he has no incentive to end this war. It's the only thing that's keeping him alive. Ending it would be political suicide, and failed leaders tend to have a very short life expectancy. So he's all paranoid and bunkered up. Actually, not even paranoid. He really does have reason to fear for his life.
I think the one thing you got wrong is that the invasion of Crimea was a response to economic troubles, not the cause of it.
Russia spent ten years doing what the IMF said, which was essentially implementing Reaganomics. That could not work for the same reasons as it didn't work in the Western world, long term. But short term, after Putin took power, it started generating results. Privatization led to industrial resurgence and a generally favorable climate for fossil fuels pumped money into the economy.
After ten years, it was becoming painfully obvious that Russia was rich, but Russians started to be poor. So Putin started blaming NATO, the EU, and the West in general for hardship, like all fascists do when they are running out of excuses.
Invading Crimea was a way to give Russians a reason to suffer through the economic pain. Just like in current America, the economic pain could not be fixed, because the oligarchs were sucking up all the money. It may be a little more complicated than that, as the Crimea invasion was also a crime of opportunity, after Ukraine had shaken off a Russian puppet government.
Ok fair enough. But Crimea did not seem to improve the situation for Russia. Like sanctions aside, taking the most pro-Russia-polling part of the country out of the electorate would obviously swing the remainder in a pro-European direction, but he doesn't seem to understand how democracy works?
I am not sure Putin understands that democracy works, at all. He seems to think it's just a formality on the way to getting what he wants. A nice flourish for simple minds that believe in hogwash like "equality" and "freedom". Whatever those words mean. Eye roll.
I guess we ordinary Joes (and Jills) can't understand what's in the heads of the so-called world leaders like Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and others. Not because they are so bright (I doubt they even reach the average), but because they have been surrounding themselves for decades with yay sayers only, while everyone with even a slightly different opinion has long (been?) gone. They completely lost touch with the world in my opinion.
Winnie the Pooh actually seems competent. An unmitigated, spherical SOB, but competent.
So far. Putin also looked not as bad as today before he started messing with Ukraine. I think the same base applies here. We also have no idea what is going on in the head of Winnie and should they actually decide to attack Taiwan it would get more obvious.
Whenever nations start ridiculous wars of aggression and get their shit kicked in, they should lose a fuck ton of territory to the defending nation. It would be funny as hell if Ukraine doubled in size. And that's an excellent reason, isn't it?
Trouble with that is they inherit a bunch of propagandized people with that territory, that’s no good for their elections.
I suppose that's true. I just think that there should some sort of semi-permanent punishment for a nation purposefully murdering the citizens of another in order to steal their land. If a nation is attempting to gain territory through violent means and ends up losing it instead, then I see that as a fitting punishment.
there should some sort of semi-permanent punishment for a nation purposefully murdering the citizens of another in order to steal their land
Easy, the leaders of that nation should be executed.
Personal consequences for the powerful making fucked up decisions certainly dissuades similar behaviors in the future, but this is not the only thing that should happen. The people that have suffered should receive a tangible benefit of some kind.
It certainly would be deliciously ironic for them to lose land in a war of conquest, but sanctions until they make tangible reparations to rebuilding the country they invade is a little more practical
You're right, it's mostly just a thought that I had. I think it's unlikely that they're awarded any more than Crimea as far as land goes.
Historically, that's typically what happened. If the aggressor was beaten back, the defender could decide to push them a little extra back and grab some land or a "buffer zone". Some years later, the aggressor is mad that they lost land, and have constructed a story about how they were the victims (after all, they're the ones that ended up losing land). Of course, they need to "retake their stolen land", so you get a new war. Rinse and repeat every couple decades, and you have European history up until about 1945.
Reparations don't have to be in the form of land.
You are correct. If and when reparations are decided they will most likely be monetary. I mostly like the irony, but that doesn't make it the best option available.
He might not even win against an open window very soon, hopefully.
I wonder what dickhead will replace him.
