My summary of the situation as I understand it is in spoiler tags below.
::: spoiler summary After many long weeks, Iran and the US have agreed that they're going to begin negotiations on certain topics in a process lasting at least 60 days. Due to America's perfidy during previous negotiations, trust has broken down so far that Iran demanded $12 billion of their frozen funds and several other promises, such as the end to the naval blockade, to even return to the table, which seems perfectly reasonable to me. Iran also demanded that negotiations take place in two stages, and that nuclear issues will only be discussed in the second stage, which will be several weeks from now if everything goes as planned.
The terms of the MoU have themselves been a big source of confusion and suspicion, for me and many other pro-Iranian spectators. Getting the wording exactly correct is important, because the US really is like the devil - leave room for any possible interpretation in the contract that favors them more, and they'll insist that this was the only interpretation up for discussion. Additionally, the US might be historically bad at winning wars, but they're very, very good at winning peaces: they set up the post-WW2 order to best suit them by playing the European powers off each other; the DPRK might have survived the Korean War politically intact but existed for nearly the next hundred years as a sanctioned pariah; Vietnam was soon forced to economically engage with the country that had dropped triple of all the bomb tonnage of WW2 on them; and so on. It is no exaggeration when I say that the negotiation phase will be the most dangerous part of this war and it could lead to the most death and destruction without a single missile impacting Iran.
However, there's one little genocidal colony in the region that could stop this whole process from even beginning, as the US appears to have promised Iran that the Zionists will stop the war against Lebanon (and perhaps Gaza too? I'm a little unclear) and even withdraw entirely from southern Lebanon, including all bases set up since this broader conflict began. Apparently, the US promised this in return for Iran not striking the Zionists in return for their most recent strike on Beirut on June 14th. Now, the issue with this whole situation is that the US greenlit the Zionist strike on Beirut, and they knew that Iran would respond to it because they did in response to an earlier strike. If the US made such major concessions to Iran in return for this response strike not occurring, then why authorize the Beirut strike at all? Why make their position worse? Right now, I can think of two reasons. First is that they attempted to create one final embarrassment for Iran, under the assumption that Iran was so desperate for a deal that they wouldn't risk responding. Second is that this is all one big ruse or misdirection; the US does not intend to follow through with the MoU and subsequent negotiations anyway, and so the terms they're "agreeing" to don't really matter.
With the MoU signing apparently set for June 19th, we'll know for sure soon. :::
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::: spoiler The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
:::
::: spoiler Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
:::
https://xcancel.com/AMK_Mapping_/status/2066413694444360068
Protests occurred in the Troyeshchyna District of Kyiv after the TCC (territorial recruitment) attempted to mobilise a man off a bus. Police used tear gas against protesters, while the TCC reportedly exploited the large gathering of people to mobilise another man. The Kyiv Police deny that the man was being mobilised, claiming it was an unrelated issue. According to them, the public mistook it as a mobilisation attempt.
Hezbollah launched a barrage of rockets and an ATGM at a column of Israeli tanks that tried to advance to Kfar Tebnit in violation of the ceasefire
- Middle East Spectator
Mercosur (Brazil's Economic Bloc) will evaluate the entry of new countries into the bloc - Ambito
The summit on the 30th, where Uruguay will assume the pro tempore presidency, will have on its agenda the requests from Colombia, Venezuela and Panama to become full members.
::: spoiler Article
Mercosur will evaluate the applications for membership in the bloc from Colombia, Venezuela and Panama during the next summit of Heads of State, which will take place on Tuesday the 30th and in which Uruguay will assume the pro tempore presidency , looking ahead to the second half of the year.
The announcement was made by the Minister of Foreign Affairs , Mario Lubetkin, during the Uruguay-European Union (EU) forum held a few days ago, entitled “New Business Horizons with the Implementation of the EU-Mercosur Agreement .” In that context, the Minister indicated that the bloc will consider the requests from Colombia, Venezuela, and Panama to join as full members of the regional multilateral organization.
According to Lubetkin, since the signing of the agreement with the EU, Mercosur has emerged as a " pole of attraction for other Latin American countries ," as evidenced by the requests from these three countries in particular.
The possibility of Mercosur addressing Venezuela's full reintegration into the bloc had already been discussed for some months, as it was one of the issues that Paraguay would seek to address during its pro tempore presidency, which ends at the end of June.
In this regard, it's worth recalling that Venezuela was accepted as a full member of Mercosur in 2012, but its membership in the South American bloc created in 1991 didn't last long: in 2017, the organization invoked its "democratic clause" incorporated in the Ushuaia Protocol to suspend the Caribbean nation. The main argument was the repression carried out against protests against the Nicolás Maduro regime and his call for a Constituent Assembly, which assumed legislative powers, controlled by an opposition majority.
For the Paraguayan government, the situation changed with the capture of the Chavista leader in January and the assumption of the Venezuelan presidency by Delcy Rodríguez . Therefore, this will be on the agenda of the summit next Tuesday, the 30th, in Asunción.
For its part, Colombia's intention to fully integrate into Mercosur—of which it has been an associate member since 2004—was announced by the country's president, Gustavo Petro , in March. Meanwhile, Panama formalized its entry into the bloc as an associate member in 2024. :::
Maduro had already resquested the reentry of Venezuela and seems like Delcy will just continue what he was already doing. As for Colombia, I think Petro had been working on this for a while now.
One thing is what the US does behind close doors, to be sure. But I think the ambiguity generated by this special transition period creates a window for opportunity where even the conservatives and the feckless factions of Itamaraty will leave the door semi-open for Venezuela.
Unless the CIA just does a media tour about how Venezuela is still evil actually but I guess we cross that bridge when we come by it.
Unless the CIA just does a media tour about how Venezuela is still evil actually but I guess we cross that bridge when we come by it.
I sort of expect when Trump leaves office the next president will start to say how evil Delcy and her goverment is and we'll be back to the same shit they have been doing before.
Makes sense. Trump has a vested interest in creating a narrative of success. A Dem Admin would have an interest in painting the reverse.
Marxist Michael Roberts was interviewed by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, here is a translation of the interview from his website.
::: spoiler spoiler
- Michael Roberts, thank you for your time! Could you briefly tell us when you got to know and accept Marxism and what impact did your previous job in the City of London have?
If you have a Marxist insight into the workings of finance capital, you are much less likely to assume that all will be well with financial investment. One lesson for workers that I learnt and this applies to China too: stay out of financial markets. Even better, workers’ pension funds should not rely on stock market investing as these funds continually lose workers’ contributions by doing so. But it works the other way too. A close understanding of the workings of the financial beast can help us explain better the fragilities and speculations of the system.
- What do you think is the core idea of Marxism? What’s the relationship between historical materialism and the critique of political economy?
The core ideas of Marxism can be reduced to two key concepts.
First, the history of human organisation since primitive times is the history of class struggle. The materialist conception of history is that change for better or worse is driven by the material interests of classes and, in particular, by the ruling class (feudal lords, capitalist companies) and the working class. While individuals can play key roles at moments in history (decisions and actions by kings or by revolutionary leaders), in the final analysis, change depends on economics and classes. As Marx said: “men make their own history, but they do not make it as they please; they do not make it under self-selected circumstances, but under circumstances existing already, given and transmitted from the past.”
The second core idea is the law of value under capitalism. Capitalism is a system of production for the profit of the owners of the means of production, who exploit those who own nothing but their ability to work for the owners. Labour creates all the things and services that we use and need, but the value of that labour is appropriated by the owners of the means of production as ‘surplus value’ over and above what labour receives for its work. That surplus value is accumulated as capital. Our social needs then depend on the decisions of capitalists on whether it is profitable or not. This explanation of the workings of the modern economy is denied by the apologists for capitalism – but it is compellingly clear.
- The theory of crisis is an important part of Marx’s critique of political economy. There have been many debates among Marxists on how to understand Marx’s theory of crisis. What do you think of Marx’s theory of crisis, and the relationship between overproduction, underconsumption, and the tendency of the rate of profit to fall?
Yes, a theory of crises under capitalism is very important. The apologists for capitalism deny that there are any endemic crises in capitalist production – ie regular and recurring slumps in production, investment and employment. For them, such crises are either random events, one-offs or the result of bad decisions, speculations or negligence. The apologists deny that crises are inherent in the capitalist system of production for profit. But Marx’s law of value reveals why regular crises are endemic. Capitalist production only takes place if profits are made and Marx shows that a contradiction arises between the drive for more production and profitability of that production (ie profits relative to capital invested). Capitalists compete against each other to gain market share and a bigger cut in the profits appropriated from workers. In order to gain an advantage, they resort to using labour-saving technology to reduce costs and increase the productivity of labour. But Marx argued that profit only comes from labour going to work, so if investment is increasingly in machines etc relative to labour, productivity may rise but at the expense of a tendency for profitability to fall. Eventually, profitability may fall so much that it causes a fall in total profits. Then capitalists stop investing, close down production and lay off workers. Unemployment rises alongside unsold goods and services. This is a slump. It can only be rectified by getting profitability rising again and that requires removing unnecessary workers, weak companies and keeping wages down. Then the whole process can start again. Slumps are a necessary ‘cleansing’ process for capital to recover. Marx outlines his theory of crises most clearly in Capital Volume 3, Chapters 13-15.
However, many Marxists do not accept that the law of tendency of the rate of profit to fall as explained in these chapters is relevant to crises in capitalism. Instead they consider two other main theories. The first is that there is ‘underconsumption’. This is when workers cannot buy back all the goods and services produced by the capitalists because they do not have enough money. Both Marx and Engels disputed this underconsumption theory, pointing out that workers will never have enough money to buy back all the output being sold, precisely because wages do not contain all the value created and realised as the capitalists have appropriated any surplus value (the difference between the value of commodities sold and wages going to the workers; in other words, profits). The point is that capitalists do not need to sell all their commodities to workers; much of sales is to other capitalists (eg steel is sold to auto manufacturers to make cars etc).
The other alternative theory is that of ‘overproduction’. Capitalists just keep producing to accumulate more profits without considering whether they can sell their production on the market. They overproduce relative to demand. The problem with this explanation of crises is that it does not explain when production becomes ‘too much production’. It may never happen, or it could happen at any moment. There is no logic to this theory. Put it this way, if supply is in line with demand, can there still be a crisis of investment and production in capitalism? Marx would say yes, because the profitability of what is being produced is what decides whether capitalists invest or not. Indeed, this is how crises unfold. Profitability falls, then total profits and then capitalists try to sell more to cover falling profits. But that means ‘overproduction’, forcing capitalists to lower prices and/or cut production. Overproduction is the result of the overaccumulation of capital ie falling profitablity of capital invested, not the other way round.
- In 2020, you published the book Engels 200 – His Contribution to Political Economy, in which you systematically introduced Engels’ research on political economy and his contribution to Marxist political economy. However, there is a view that the crisis caused by the rate of profit to fall is actually Engels’ viewpoint, and he exaggerated or even tampered with Marx’s discussion on the tendency of the rate of profit to fall when editing volume 3 of Capital. What do you think of this viewpoint?
This view has been expressed by several Marxists (in particular, the German Marxist scholar, Michael Heinrich) who claim that they have read unpublished papers by Marx that apparently show Engels changing Marx’s words to make the law of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall appear more important. These Marxists also claim that Marx actually abandoned the law in the 1870s and so it should not be considered relevant to Marxist economics and crisis theory.
But other scholars have shown clearly that Engels did not engage in any significant distortion of Marx’s text as in Chapters 13-15 of Volume 3 where the law of profitability is spelt out. And there is no evidence that Marx dropped the law in the 1870s – on the contrary, he conducts further work on it. For example, in the 1870s, Marx spent considerable time looking at the rate of profit with various mathematical formulas. When Engels came to edit Capital Volume 3, he excluded Marx’s mathematical work on the rate of profit, even though it would have confirmed that Marx still held to his law. All this is explained in my book, Marx 200 and in my book Engels 200, with all the references.
The Marxists who push this have also bent Marx’s law of value into a theory of money ie. value is not created by labour in production, but instead is only realised in selling commodities produced on the market. So no sale, then no value. This was not Marx’s view. Value is the result of the effort of human labour in production; how much of that value is eventually realised depends on sale in the market. But there is no value at all without human labour production. Behind this revised theory is an attempt to replace profitability as the ultimate cause of crises with a theory of monetary or credit instability, similar to the view of mainstream economists like Keynes.
:::
Continued below
::: spoiler spoiler 5. From your point of view, what are the main differences between Marxist political economy and other schools of economics (like neoclassical economics, Keynesianism, etc.)? Can we regard the theory of crisis as an important difference or even essential difference between Marxist political economy and mainstream Western economics?
The key difference above all is that other schools of economics, even the most radical ‘heterodox’ schools that do not accept that markets are perfect, do not agree with Marx’s law of value. They do not accept that the key contradiction of capitalist production is production for profit, not social need and that increased production eventually comes into conflct with increased profitability and that is what leads to booms and slumps, ie crises. The mainstream neoclassical school deny crises can happen in properly run markets or in markets that are not interfered with by governments, monopolies or trade unions. Heterodox economists deny the role of profit in crises and look to either a ‘lack of demand’ (Keynes); or financial instability (Minsky) or monopolies (Sweezy, Stiglitz) or bad regulation.
And this is a crucial difference, because all these schools are suggesting that capitalist production can be modified or corrected to make capitalism work better. Keynes said more government spending or monetary injections will do the trick; heterodox Minsky said: regulate the banks and finaancial institutions, then capitalism will be stable. These reformist approaches are theoretally and empirically wrong. Marx’s theory of crisis shows that capitalism cannot be reformed in that way. Crises are endemic to capitalism because ultimately they are caused by falling profitability. The only way to end crises is to replace capitalism with a planned economy under common ownership ie no capitalists.
- In your research, what impacts does the financialization of capitalism have on the real economy and the working class?
One of the features of the last 50 years in modern economies in the Global North has been the rise of the financial sectors, not just banks but hedge funds, investment funds, insurance funds, private equity, cryptocurrencies etc. Increasingly, capitalists have switched their investment of accrued profits into financial assets and speculation rather than into investment into new technology and productive sectors. This is the phenomenon of ‘financialisation’.
However, some Marxists and others have been so enamoured by this development that they have started to claim that capitalism has changed its spots. It is no longer a system of production for profit through the exploitation of labour in factories, offices etc, but now it is just a financial monetary system where money makes more money. This means that workers have lost their role as producers of value in capitalism. Now capitalists can get value just from monetary tricks. Capitalism has become finance capital, which rules over producer capital.
This is nonsense. Although financial profits in some economies like the US and the UK are large, say up to 25% of total profits, the vast majority of profits are still made by selling goods and services produced by workers. And that is especially the case in the so-called Global South where manufacturing has become predominant, not finance. Globally, the working class has never been larger and still most capitalist accumulation comes from the labour of working people in production. The leopard of capitalism has not changed its spots.
- What do you think of the current crisis of capitalism in the global economic system, especially the financial crisis in recent years? What insights can Marxist political economy provide for us to understand the crisis of capitalism?
This is a big subject. In the 21st century we have had the two biggest slumps in the history of capitalism, 2008-9 and 2020. There is every reason to expect that another slump will take place before the end of this decade. That may be triggered by a new financial crash as in 2008. This time that crash may not start in the banks as such but be engendered by rising corporate debt and the cost of servicing that debt. Already, there are around 20% of companies in Europe, Japan and the US that are called ‘zombies’ ie they are like the living dead because they do not make enough profits to cover even the cost of servicing their existing debt and so must keep borrowing.These companies are in serious risk of going bust and bringing down even profitable companies in a ricochet effect.
- You think that since the end of the Great Recession in 2009, the major capitalist economies have been in a Long Depression. Is there any difference between the Long Depression and previous long depressions in the history of capitalism? What strategies should China adopt in response to the global impact of the Long Depression?
I define a depression as opposed to a recession or slump as a period where after a slump, the previous trend of growth in output, investment and above all profitability, is much lower than before the slump. And this lower trend can last for decades. In that sense, the Long Depression of the 2010s onwards that I have identified is similar to the depression of the late 19th century (1873-97) and the Great Depression of 1929-42. As of 2025, the current depression is continuing as the pandemic slump of 2020 did not lead to a significant rise in profitability and so investment growth and real GDP growth remain even weaker than in the 2010s.
China has avoided all these crises in capitalism. That’s because China has an economy dominated by a large state sector and planning by the government, so that any instability in its capitalist sector can be overcome and investment and production can carry on relatively uninterrupted. If the capitalist economies of the West head into another slump, then trade and investment into China will be hit, but China now has a massive domestic base and it has invested heavily into new technologies and continues to direct and plan that investment mainly through the state sector. China needs to expand the state sector and planning to reduce the instability in its capitalist sector, particularly exposed by its plunging real estate sector (mostly capitalist based).
- Digital currency and blockchain technology have been hot topics in the field of financial technology in recent years, and they have had a profound impact on the global economy and financial system. What is your opinion of these financial innovations and digital finance?Will they lead to a more serious global economic crisis?
Cryptocurrencies, as they are called, like bitcoin, are just another form of speculative financial asset like gold or paintings. They are not alternative forms of money that could replace state issued currencies (fiat money) like the dollar or yuan. Digital currencies in general already exist in one form ie you pay your bills by card, phone or bank transfer without any paper money involved. The possible new development would be a central bank digital currency that bypasses commercial banks. So far, that development has made limited progress. In the meantime, cryptocurrencies are yet another form of what Marx called ‘fictitious capital’ that adds yet more risk of a financial crash down the road.
- Given the increasing popularity of artificial intelligence and automation, how to apply Marxism to analyze the impact of technological progress on production modes and social relations?In your research, what is the correlation between technological progress and economic growth?
This is complicated. Artificial intelligence (AI) is just a new form of technology aimed at replacing human labour and increasing the productivity of labour and so raising the rate of exploitation on labour by capital. New technology can lead to huge job losses, especially for those in industries and occupations it replaces, but it can also, over time, create new industries and employment. Consider the industrial revolution, the electricity revolution, the auto industry, computer revolution. Technology has always been key to economic growth by raising the productivity of labour, especially when the size of the labour force stops rising – as in China today.
It is argued that AI is a completely new development that will replace human labour altogether because it can supersede human intelligence. The evidence for this is doubtful. Much of AI is just a fast processing of existing human knowledge and cannot replace the imaginative nature of human intelligence. Also, AI will take some time, even decades, to diffuse its productivity-enhancing effects through economies. In my view, it is not a ‘game changer’ that can save capitalism. :::
https://xcancel.com/ripplebrain/status/2066564146288541857
UKMTO: A tanker 111 NM southeast of Aden, Yemen, was approached by a small armed skiff carrying four crew. The skiff fired an RPG at the vessel.
We forgot to make a deal with the Houthis
::: spoiler Article
“The coming months will be decisive for the country’s future, and it is during this period that it will become clear whether Georgia remains a free European democracy or ends up in Russia’s sphere of influence,” Georgia’s fifth president stated in an interview with The Washington Times.
Salome Zourabichvili also noted that elections in the country will likely take place, but it remains unknown under what conditions the electoral process will be conducted.
“My role is to unite Georgian society around the future, around its own vision. Outside the country, my role is also to be the voice of a society that effectively no longer has a voice. Embassies serve the party.
It can be predicted that elections will take place in this country, but we do not know under what conditions. Perhaps the weakened regime will collapse at some point. Perhaps it will decide to hold elections before it loses control over key processes. Or we will go through a regular electoral cycle.
The West must prepare now. In any case, risk prevention, assistance, and observation will be required. Old methods are no longer sufficient. Last century’s OSCE observation no longer works; we live in a different world where even artificial intelligence is used. Whoever preserves the Caucasus will also preserve the corridor connecting Europe to Central Asia,” — Zourabichvili stated. :::
I was really curious to see if this “presidential dispute” was still going on, and yea, she’s still pretending to be the president. The same goes for Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya (Belarusian Guaidó) and Edmundo Gonzalez (Venezuelan Guaidó 2.0).
This level of Larping is really something. The Belarusian “government” in exile held “elections” this year, I don’t even know how that works or wtf they do, like, do they count imaginary votes and pass imaginary laws? That reminds me, there’s a Venezuelan Supreme Court in exile operating out of Miami lol.
Countries that are sanctioned by the U.S. don't have much to lose fighting the U.S. It's why most global south leaders (socdem, right, liberal) don't want to upset the U.S. too much. Ofc, the right wing regimes do outright glaze unlike the socdem ones which at least posture against U.S. actions.
Iran had nothing much to lose by attacking the U.S, Israel and the Gulf. If its forex reserves are unblocked, it'll have more to worry about wrt upsetting the U.S. I hope they know better to not throw Lebanon under the bus for a bit of one-off foreign exchange.
231 Ukrainian Drones Shot Down During Russia Day - Telesur English
::: spoiler Article
The Russian Security Service also foiled a planned attack targeting a Defense Ministry officer. On Friday, the Russian Defense Ministry said its air defenses shot down 231 drones across 15 regions as citizens celebrate Russia Day.
Tatarstan Gov. Rustam Minnikhanov confirmed a massive attack on the Zakamsky district, where four people were hospitalized after a residential building was struck. A company was also attacked. Telegram channels reported that Ukrainian drones may also have hit a refinery belonging to the Sibur group in Nizhnekamsk, a city of 200,000 residents where Russia Day celebrations have been suspended.
Ukrainian drones also targeted the Crimean Peninsula, the border regions of Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk, as well as the Moscow region, where 13 unmanned aircraft were shot down. Ilya Sukhikh, mayor of the industrial city of Tolyatti, reported damage to a company that Ukrainian media identified as the Togliattikauchuk chemical plant. On Thursday, Moscow authorities canceled the traditional concert in Red Square commemorating Russia Day for the first time since 2003.
On Thursday, Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) confirmed that it foiled a planned attack targeting a Russian Defense Ministry officer and detained a foreign national allegedly recruited by Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU).
The suspect, a foreign citizen born in 1990, was detained during a special operation in the Moscow region. He was tasked by the SBU with assassinating a Russian military officer.
According to the FSB, the suspect entered Russia in February. Acting on instructions from his handlers, he retrieved a pistol fitted with a silencer and 16 rounds of ammunition from a hidden cache and conducted surveillance of the target’s residence and workplace.
The suspect had been recruited by SBU officers in a European country, where he had fled to avoid criminal prosecution in his home country. He was promised assistance in obtaining refugee status and legal residence in the European Union in exchange for carrying out the assignment. :::
The fourth BTG Pactual /Nexus poll for the 2026 presidential election , released this Monday (15), shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers' Party) leading with 49% over Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party) with 43% in the second round. Jair Bolsonaro 's son maintained the same percentage as the last survey, released on May 25. The president, however, grew 2 percentage points compared to the 47% of the previous poll.
With a six-point difference, for the first time in four surveys, Lula would beat the senator outside the margin of error, which is two percentage points up or down. In this scenario from the June survey, none/blank/null votes would total 8%, and 1% would be undecided or did not respond.
::: spoiler Article
Between the last poll and the current one, Flávio Bolsonaro – already involved in the Banco Master scandal , with a meeting and request for money from Daniel Vorcaro for the film "Dark Horse," a biography of his father – met with President Donald Trump in the United States .
Following the meeting , the US government classified Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and Comando Vermelho (CV) as criminal organizations and announced tariffs of 25% on Brazilian products.
In addition to the three second -round scenarios from previous polls – Lula versus Flávio Bolsonaro and against former governors and pre-candidates Romeu Zema (Novo - Far-Right) and Ronaldo Caiado (Social Democrat Party - Right-Wing Neoliberal) – this first survey in June included a simulation against Renan Santos (Missão - Far-Right).
Against Caiado, Lula would have a 48% to 39% advantage, compared to 46% to 40% in May. In a second round against the former governor of Minas Gerais, Lula would have 49% to 39%, compared to 49% to 38% in the previous poll. If the opponent were Renan Santos, the president would win by 49% to 36%.
The fourth edition of the BTG Pactual/Nexus survey presented an unprecedented first -round scenario with nine pre-candidates for president. In addition to the eight names presented in one of the scenarios from the May survey, the name of federal deputy Aécio Neves (Brazilian Social Democrat Party - Center-Right) was included.
Lula leads with 42% in the first round, compared to 40% in the May survey, and is followed by Flávio Bolsonaro, who obtained 33% in this June poll, compared to 35% in the two scenarios of the previous survey. They are followed by Caiado and Renan Santos, with 4% , Zema, Joaquim Barbosa (DC) and Augusto Cury (Avante), with 2%, and Aécio Neves and Cabo Daciolo (Mobiliza), 1%.
The total number of blank votes, null votes, and those who would not vote for any of the names presented was 5%, and those undecided or who did not express an opinion totaled 3%.
In a first-round scenario with six candidates , without Cury, Aécio, and Cabo Daciolo, Lula obtained 43% of the voting intentions and Flávio Bolsonaro, 34%. They were followed by Renan Santos, with 5%, Caiado, with 4%, and Zema and Joaquim Barbosa, both with 3%. None/Blank/Null votes totaled 6%, and those undecided or who did not express an opinion totaled 2%.
According to the survey, 41% of respondents mentioned Lula and 32% mentioned Flávio Bolsonaro in both first-round scenarios. :::
Dark Horse Rises
::: spoiler Article
Damascus, June 15 (Prensa Latina) Arab states and regional organizations today welcomed the agreement reached between the United States and Iran to cease military operations and advocated for the understanding to translate into a lasting peace in the Middle East, regional media reported.
The positions were expressed by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq and Palestine, as well as by the Gulf Cooperation Council and the Arab League, who all emphasized the importance of consolidating the ceasefire and moving towards broad and sustainable negotiations.
The announcement of the agreement was made yesterday by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who reported on the understanding between the United States and Iran to end military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon. He specified that the signing of the memorandum is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland.
Subsequently, US President Donald Trump confirmed the agreement through his Truth Social network, while Iranian state media quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi as saying that the text of the memorandum of understanding “is finalized and will be signed in Geneva on Friday.”
According to reports, the agreement ends a cycle of hostilities that began on February 28 between the United States and Israel against Iran, to which Tehran responded with attacks against Israeli targets and against US interests in the region, before a temporary ceasefire was reached on April 8.
In its official reaction, Saudi Arabia welcomed the agreement and stressed the importance of ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, while also praising the mediation efforts of Pakistan and Qatar, and expressing its expectation that the process will lead to a permanent settlement that strengthens regional and global security.
Qatar emphasized that the understanding represents an important step towards consolidating a sustainable peace, while its Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani thanked the mediation efforts and urged the continuation of the negotiation process in a constructive spirit.
The United Arab Emirates reiterated the need to prioritize dialogue and respect for international law, while Kuwait stressed that the agreement must lead to sustainable solutions that guarantee stability and freedom of navigation in the region.
Egypt described the agreement as a turning point for regional and international security, and expressed its hope that it would help refocus global attention on the humanitarian situation in the Palestinian territories.
For its part, Jordan highlighted the importance of the agreement as a step towards regional stability, while Iraq reiterated its support for diplomatic solutions and dialogue as a way to resolve crises in the Middle East.
Taken together, the positions reflect a broad regional consensus on the need to avoid an escalation of the conflict and to transform the current cessation of hostilities into a stable political framework that contributes to collective security in the region. :::
So what happens next?
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Israel continues to attack Lebanon and Palestine, Iran is forced to defend them and the War Restarts.
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Israel continues to attack Lebanon and Palestine, Iran is forced to defend them and the US leaves Israel to do their own thing alone
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The US moves on to attack Cuba
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The US moves on to harass Brazil, Colombia, Mexico or Venezuela again idk
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The US moves on to focus on tariffs things
was Palestine confirmed to be in the MoU? i haven't heard much about it, only about ~~israeli~~ forces leaving Lebanon. i was deep in despair about it, so i hope Iran will never forget that the Palestinians have also been fighting against the entity for their freedom as well. if they have the same protections as the others do, then i can have a little hope, as a treat
was Palestine confirmed to be in the MoU?
Afaik no. Maybe there was a ceasefire but not removal of Israeli troops from Gaza.
okay 🥲 maybe Iran will clarify later
Mozambique expands state ownership of mines; bans raw material exports
::: spoiler Mozambique's president signed a new law granting the National Mining Company (ENM) a free 15% stake across the stages of the mining value chain.
To transform mineral wealth into “lasting engines of economic and social development,” Mozambique revamped its mining laws, mandating local processing and expanding state ownership of its mineral wealth. The reforms, taking effect with President Daniel Chapo’s signature on June 3, were passed by parliament in May, granting the National Mining Company (ENM) a free 15% stake across the stages of the mining value chain, with an option to further expand its ownership.
To break free from the southern African country’s historical status as a raw-material exporter, the legislation also mandated domestic processing and banned the export of raw or semi-processed minerals unless permitted by government approval. The approval, however, is temporary and requires the mining companies to present a plan for future local processing, Ecofin Agency reported.
Mozambique is the world’s third-largest producer of graphite, an essential component in batteries for electric vehicles, growing in demand globally. The country also has significant rare earth deposits. Only two days after the new laws were signed, on June 5, Altona Rare Earths, headquartered in London, announced the discovery of a deposit of xenotime, which is processed to extract many heavy rare earth elements, at its Monte Muambe concession in Tete Province.
The new rules, positioning the state to better leverage this mineral wealth for developmental needs, also require that 10% of mining revenues be transferred to a dedicated local development fund, reported Africa Business Insider. “With the enactment of these laws, the Mozambican government strengthens the management of strategic resources in the national interest, while promoting employment, domestic investment, wealth retention, and … sustainable development,” the president’s office said in a statement.
The mining reforms in Mozambique come amid a growing resource nationalism in the continent, after the sovereigntist governments of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) set a precedent. Through a combination of nationalizing selected foreign-owned mines, increasing state and domestic private ownership, and mandating local processing, states have successfully secured a greater share of the mining revenues. Using the increased revenues, the government of Burkina Faso has repaid almost a quarter of its domestic debt. It also established the Sovereign Mining Investment Fund (FSMIB) on May 21 to finance long-term infrastructure development and industrialization.
Earlier in March, Mali redistributed USD 33 million from mining revenue to mining-affected communities and other underdeveloped regions. A third of this redistributed revenue is to be used by the local government to lay roads, and supply water and electricity, a quarter for healthcare, another quarter for schools, and 15-20% for supporting small businesses and agriculture. :::
Sounds like it's time to bring some democracy to Mozambique and free its people from the tyranny of Chapo.
Voting begins abroad for Colombia's presidential runoff - Prensa Latina
::: spoiler Article
Bogotá, June 15 (Prensa Latina) Voting abroad for the second round of Colombia's presidential elections begins today, with voters choosing between the far-right candidate, Abelardo De la Espriella, and the progressive Iván Cepeda.
As previously reported by the National Civil Registry, Colombians residing abroad who are eligible to vote will be able to exercise their right to vote for one week, that is, until next Sunday, June 21, the day on which the polls will open in the national territory.
A total of 1,414,661 Colombians are eligible to participate in the elections abroad, of which 777,343 are women and 637,318 are men, the entity specified.
He explained that 253 polling stations will be set up in 67 countries, with 1,489 voting tables between June 15 and 20, and 2,181 tables on Sunday. He also emphasized that the only valid document for exercising the right to vote, both in Colombia and abroad, is the national identity card.
The organization also revealed that on June 21, starting at 4:00 p.m. (Colombia time), when the polls close in the South American country, the preliminary results of the overseas elections will begin to be released.
Furthermore, the same source confirmed that a total of 40 million seven thousand 312 citizens will be able to vote in the national territory (20 million 521 thousand 149 women and 19 million 486 thousand 163 men).
According to the data already validated by the count, in the first round of elections, held on May 31, De la Espriella received 10 million 366 thousand votes, while Cepeda obtained nine million 703 thousand.
The current ballot will feature both candidates and a third box corresponding to a blank vote.
The Colombian Ministry of the Interior recently revealed that “all institutional capacities are in place to ensure that the second round of the presidential election takes place with full democratic guarantees, under safe conditions and with absolute respect for the political rights of the candidates and the citizens.” :::
Ecuador’s war within: three deaths expose the limits of Noboa’s iron fist
::: spoiler As violence appears to have spiraled out of control in Ecuador, the government remains committed to its security strategy and international partnerships to combat crime. The far-right government of Daniel Noboa is facing a serious challenge to its image of an administration that is tough on crime and effective in securing the safety of the Ecuadorian people. The government has attempted to promote the idea that those killed belong to criminal gangs, suggesting that there is a sort of “bubble of violence” within which most crimes occur.
However, the recent deaths of an activist, a student, and a high-ranking official at an Ecuadorian university have shaken public opinion to such an extent that many former defenders of the government’s thesis regarding the limited nature of the issue are now feeling overwhelmed by violence that, on the contrary, is spiraling out of control.
In fact, 2025 was the most violent year in Ecuador in recent history. 9,216 people were killed in violent deaths, an increase of 32% from the previous year. 10 years prior, the number of violent deaths was 1,050. Meaning that from 2015 to 2025, the number of homicides in what once was considered the safest country in Latin America, increased by 777.7%.
Meanwhile, Daniel Noboa’s government has continually insisted that the only solution for combatting the spiking levels of violence is to militarize the country through “Plan Fénix” launched in 2023, maintain the declaration of internal armed conflict and a state of emergency, and engage in joint military operations with the United States, against the expressed will of the Ecuadorian people. These strategies have appeared to be ineffective in stopping the violence and have, unsurprisingly, contributed to its growth. The tragic and mysterious death of Mónika Silva
A few days ago, authorities reported that anti-corruption activist Mónika Silva Koniuszek was found dead in her home in the province of Santa Elena. The Prosecutor’s Office has requested international cooperation to solve a case that has shed light on the silencing of those who denounce acts of corruption and drug trafficking in the country.
Most concerning is that days before her death, Silva had spoken about death threats against her and stated that her life was in danger. Several human rights organizations, such as the Ecumenical Commission, argued that the state bears responsibility for her death due to its inaction and passivity in response to reports regarding her safety.
Despite this, Interior Minister John Reimberg issued statements a few hours after the murder claiming that the activist’s death could be a suspected suicide, which provoked anger and rejection from Silva’s loved ones and civil society in general. Many questioned why Reimberg rushed to make these statements when a thorough investigation of the case had not yet been conducted.
A few days later, the Minister of the Interior himself appeared to backtrack on his initial statements when he called for the investigations to be conducted with the greatest possible “speed, thoroughness, and transparency … so that the facts may be fully clarified.” Following the death of Silva, who was Polish by birth, the European Union issued a formal public call for the government to ensure a transparent investigation in accordance with international protocols.
Silva had dedicated the last years of her life to leading the La Integridad Foundation, which is committed to promoting transparency, social oversight, and citizen participation. The organization had become prominent in the public debate for exposing cases of corruption, land ownership disputes, administrative irregularities, and environmental issues. As a result, authorities and several journalists continue to investigate who is behind Silva’s death, and whether it was some form of retaliation for her work exposing powerful groups that control corruption networks in the country (and whose ties to various institutions remain unclear).
For several days, the media and social media were flooded with images of Nathaly Mafla, a 20-year-old systems engineering student who disappeared in Quito. Her family and friends led a media campaign that reached millions of people, wondering where the young woman – who had come to the capital from Tulcán to study – had gone. Several videos were shown on major television channels showing Mafla wandering disoriented through the streets of Quito. A few hours later, after several days of searching, it was confirmed that a body found in a ravine near her university was that of Nathaly.
Students and faculty at the university where she was studying, the National Polytechnic School, were shocked by the tragic news of her death. Furthermore, they and her family members reported that she was a responsible and dedicated student, with no ties to any criminal organization. Her mother said on social media: “My dearest daughter: I never thought you would leave me so soon.” The brutal death of Santiago Ávalos
A few hours ago, several passersby posted images on social media showing a car riddled with bullet holes. Authorities later reported that the body of Santiago Ávalos, the financial manager of the University of the Americas (UDLA), a private university in Quito, was found inside the car. According to the police report, Ávalos told his wife over the phone that a motorcycle was following him. Shortly afterward, the motorcyclist allegedly fired at least six shots at Ávalos’s car, causing him to lose control of the vehicle and crash into a pole, where he died at the scene of the attack. For its part, the UDLA said in an official statement: “His absence leaves a profound void among those of us who shared our daily work with him, but also the legacy of integrity, generosity, and dedication that set him apart.” Growing unease in society
The notion that violence in Ecuador is limited to criminal gangs and certain socioeconomic sectors appears to be fading in light of these and other similar incidents. Furthermore, in recent months there has been a concerning rise in criminal activity in the capital Quito, that had previously been concentrated mainly in cities along the Ecuadorian coast, such as Guayaquil, Manta, Portoviejo, and Machala. Despite this, President Noboa insists that his security plan is on the right track and yielding clear results. In this regard, he has made the United States his primary partner in tackling the crime that has made 2025 the most violent year in the country’s history.
Indeed, Noboa announced that he will travel to the United States again to meet at the White House with Stephen Miller, Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy and National Security Advisor to the Trump administration. Noboa is the president who has traveled abroad the most while in office, and the United States (his country of birth) is his favorite destination, where he has traveled more than 14 times – a remarkable record. However, while Noboa travels to the United States in the midst of the World Cup, fear and insecurity are growing among the Ecuadorian population. The government has promised on several occasions that it will succeed in overcoming the violence in the country, but little by little, these promises seem to be fading in the face of a reality that terrifies citizens who are unsure whether they will make it home safe and sound. :::
Palestine Action terror ban is lawful, judges rule in victory for Home Office
::: spoiler spoiler
Palestine Action’s ban under terrorism laws will remain in place after the Court of Appeal ruled that the group’s proscription was lawful in a major win for the government.
Lady Chief Justice Baroness Carr told the Court of Appeal on Monday that the home secretary’s decision to ban the group under terror laws was “a justified and proportionate interference with individual rights”.
“The proscription decision was not unlawful”, she told the court, describing Palestine Action as a group that “overtly promotes unlawful violence amounting to terrorism”.
The rare five-judge panel found that the High Court was wrong when they previously ruled that the group’s proscription was unlawful.
The ban, which began on 5 July last year, made membership of, or support for, the direct action group a criminal offence punishable by up to 14 years in prison.
Baroness Carr said that it was “not accurate” to describe Palestine Action as “an ordinary protest group”, saying the group was “engaged in causing serious damage to property” and “presented a very real risk of injury not only to property but also to members of the public”. In their ruling, the Court of Appeal judges said Palestine Action “had little or nothing in common with the suffragettes or the anti-apartheid or Iran war protest groups”.
The Court of Appeal agreed with the Home Office on all grounds of appeal in a definitive victory for the government. Crucially the five judges said that they were “unable to identify” any alternative steps that the home secretary could have taken other than to proscribe Palestine Action under terror laws.
The group was banned by then-home secretary Yvette Cooper in July 2025 after members broke into RAF Brize Norton and vandalised jets to protest the war in Gaza. Lady Chief Justice Baroness Carr (second right) at the Royal Courts of Justice as she delivers the ruling by the Court of Appeal to ban Palestine Action Lady Chief Justice Baroness Carr (second right) at the Royal Courts of Justice as she delivers the ruling by the Court of Appeal to ban Palestine Action (PA)
The five-judge panel, Baroness Carr, the Master of the Rolls, Lord Justice Edis, Lord Justice Lewis and Lady Justice Whipple, found that Ms Cooper’s decision struck a “fair balance” between the need to safeguard national security and disrupting individuals’ rights to freedom of expression and assembly.
Responding to the ruling, Palestine Action co-founder Huda Ammori said she would “fight proscription all the way” to the Supreme Court and European Court of Human Rights to overturn “one of the most extreme attacks on free speech and the right to protest in modern British history”.
Home secretary Shabana Mahmood said the Palestine Action is “not an ordinary protest group”, and told the public that “this decision does not affect lawful protest in support of the Palestinian cause, which remains a fundamental democratic right”.
Outside the Royal Courts of Justice on Monday, some protesters gathered in support of Palestine Action were arrested, the Metropolitan Police said.
Akiko Hart, director of human rights charity Liberty, said Monday’s judgement “risks paving the way for current and future governments to use counter terror powers against non-terrorist groups.” She added: “This case has already had, and will continue to have, a chilling effect on protest and free speech - leaving many people too afraid to protest or say the wrong thing”.
The High Court had previously ruled that Ms Cooper’s decision to ban Palestine Action under terrorism legislation was unlawful. Three senior judges at the High Court concluded that only a small number of Palestine Action’s activities amounted to terrorism, and that the group’s acts had not crossed the high bar to make it a terrorist organisation.
The High Court said that Ms Cooper had failed to consider whether imposing a terror ban on Palestine Action was “proportionate” to the threat posed by the organisation. Justice Sharp wrote that, by doing this, Ms Cooper had made a “significant” error by failing to follow the Home Office’s own policy on proscription. A Palestinian flag is waved as people stand listening to the Court of Appeal ruling on June 15, 2026 A Palestinian flag is waved as people stand listening to the Court of Appeal ruling on June 15, 2026 (AFP/Getty)
However the Court of Appeal decided that the purpose of the Home Office policy was “not to limit or constrain the discretion of the home secretary”. They found that the home secretary “had the institutional competence and the democratic accountability to make the decision”.
Since the group’s proscription, hundreds of people have been arrested across multiple demonstrations after holding up placards and wearing badges and t-shirts declaring support for Palestine Action.
The Chief Magistrate has put a pause on the progress of criminal cases for those charged, with a review hearing due to take place on June 30. With the Court of Appeal ruling that Palestine Action’s ban was lawful, the criminal cases, of which there are more than 700, look set to go ahead.
Dozens of days of court time have already been allocated in the autumn and winter to hear the trials at magistrates’ courts around London, and if prosecutions go forward the courts will have to allocate more time to hear cases.
The Court of Appeal’s decision comes after four Palestine Action activists who mounted a “terrorist” raid on Israel-based defence firm Elbit Systems’ UK factory were jailed. People react as they listen to the court proceedings outside the Royal Courts Of Justice People react as they listen to the court proceedings outside the Royal Courts Of Justice (AFP/Getty)
Charlotte Head, 30, Samuel Corner, 23, Leona Kamio, 30, and Fatema Rajwani, 21, used sledgehammers and crowbars to destroy computers, drones and other equipment before police and security intervened.
Corner, a former student at Oxford, struck police officer Kate Evans twice on the back with a seven-pound sledgehammer, leaving her with a fractured spine.
Mr Justice Johnson gave the four prison sentences of between seven years and eight months and four years and eight months, with each defendant also spending an extra year on licence.
During the hearing on Friday, the judge ruled that the raid amounted to an “act of terrorism”, having been carried out to try to influence the UK government and intimidate a section of the public. :::
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/palestine-action-terror-ban-court-appeal-b2994756.html
I've been thinking that the "no aggression against Lebanon" demand is not really a friendly/humanitarian exigence, like it keeps being suggested in these last megas.
The entity is never going to let this one pass, and thus no agreement is reached. Multiple countries are put into strain due to oil shortages, or even become military targets due to being vassals. This makes their survival and integrity mostly depend on cessation of the entity's goals.
I think it's a mechanism to turn the economic survival of multiple nations directly opposed to the entity's expansion and colonialism. If the war goes on for longer because ceasefires keep getting violated, this would pressure the affected nations into taking some kind of action against the entity.
Now a question: why must they take Lebanon now? Why can't they take a few months of building up and planning before resuming the aggression?
It's an act of being allies. Letting the zionist entity eliminate its opposition one by one will eventually leave Iran on its own, surrounded entirely by US vassals even more than it already is. Israel is a rabid Nazi state that will keep massacring civilians until someone puts it down. Throwing your allies to the wolves will not sate its genocidal mania.
Now a question: why must they take Lebanon now? Why can't they take a few months of building up and planning before resuming the aggression?
I genuinely think it's because Israel is figuratively frothing at the mouth. It is acting irrationally because it's in the midst of a fascist death spiral, like Nazi Germany was. Imo it's gonna get to a point where the cost of propping up Israel will outweigh the benefits for the US, they're gonna abandon it and the entity is gonna collapse within weeks. Israel is a sinking ship and while it might look otherwise right now, I don't think the US is gonna go all the way down with it.
they're gonna abandon it and the entity is gonna collapse within weeks
Agreed, the contradictions are piling up and lately I've genuinely wondered whether or not they'll still exist in a year (which if they don't would on top of everything be pretty funny considering Ahmed Yassin's prediction). I think some part of them is wondering the same, hence the rush.
And also, while I agree, I really really hope I'm wrong but I'm having trouble imagining a scenario where this occurs without them using a nuke in their death throes first.
I've been thinking along those lines as well. In my opinion, long as Iran holds firm to ceasefire in Lebanon as a non-negotiable, it can really only benefit them (given, of course, we abstract the logic from the various internal strains of war). Either:
- The Entity does not abide by/actively sabotages the terms. Then, Iran backs away from talks with renewed casus belli due to ongoing perfidy.
- The Entity begrudgingly accepts the situation but engages in its historic tactic of going sicko mode hours before they're wrangled. Then, either Iran can in turn pummel Tel Aviv as they were threatening and say something like 'clearly, the agreement has not gone into effect yet,' or Iran can back away from talks with renewed casus belli.
- Washington genuinely wrangles The Entity into unabashed compliance. Sours US-Israel relationship and halts offense on Lebanon.
In any case, all of these have the second order effect of, if genuine, straining relations between US and Israel, and if perfidious, returning to current status quo with a fresh casus belli. The second scenario's first option may be a bit tenuous, but it is something I can see happening if they really want to project the "we're reasonable, they're not" posture they have been taking thus far.
I'll admit, I am nervous that Iran isn't operating on this wavelength and worry for the possibility that this results in a state of pyrrhic inertia if The Entity aggresses and Iran doubles down on process, but I think it's a largely irrational worry because they have shown sustained competence throughout the war.
The armchair general in me says pulling out of Lebanon is the militarily best thing to do. The zionists essentially have two fronts they're dealing with, so getting rid of one would be a massive bit of relief.
Then again all my """"expertise"""" comes from watching Youtube videos in various historical matters and doing my Autism Power Walks™.
Yeah but the fascist urge to start multi-front wars you cannot win is insurmountable.
As the great philosopher Londo Mollari once said, "Only an idiot fights a war on two fronts. Only the heir to the throne of the kingdom of idiots would fight a war on twelve fronts."
Well we all knows fascists aren't exactly known to make intelligent decisions.
Now a question: why must they take Lebanon now? Why can't they take a few months of building up and planning before resuming the aggression?
I think they're convinced it's their last chance; I think they realize the US is collapsing, and beyond that even in countries from the white empire they're reviled by more and more people, including people that aren't usually particularly political. They see it as "now or never".
At this point I honestly feel it's more likely for that action to be a new "coalition of the willing" to march 500K troops into Iran than any sort of action against the small settler colony, the big settler colony commands too much weight for any country to openly go against its will or its ally. Western Europe is ideologically chained to their "great NATO ally" because of the Ukraine proxy war, non-resistance MENA countries are either too weak, their leadership bought off, or too afraid to do anything. Countries in the rest of Asia are either too far away, have too little diplomatic sway or would be more content buying Chinese solar panels.
Thus the reversal of this mechanism you speak of, the economic survival of multiple nations indeed depends on this war ceasing and the small settler colony ceasing expansion, but the path of least resistance might not be action against the small settler colony, but direct action against Iran. If you or someone else has points to prove me wrong, I welcome them because I really wish this will not be the case.
The ghouls could certainly want to do another Gulf War, but the simple facts are:
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the logistical capacity to move troops on that scale literally does not exist anymore (https://hexbear.net/post/7907869/6995966)
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the troops to do such moves with don't exist anymore
(and etc. for the rest of NATO)
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even if the capacity and the manpower was there, you need bases to actually deploy to, and it just so happens that a bunch of those have been wrecked by the Iranians
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even if the bases were intact, now that we live in The Age of the Missile, any large scale US deployment would be quickly seen and bombed - and a deployment of such scale would take a long time, the '91 Gulf War build-up took half a year, and that was with the US having a massive amount of logistical assets which, as per point 1., aren't around anymore - so, plenty of opportunity for bombing
At most, the West might be able to do some special forces and airborne ops along the coastline, but without an actual real army to back those up, they'll be of dubious strategic effect
Shit, it took Russia months to build up ~200k troops for the SMO and they were amassing forces in their own turf without anyone lobbing missiles at them
Thank you for bringing me these facts. If this is the case then I foresee some sort of extended deadlock between Iran and USIS until something big happens, like riots in one of the two settler colonies, Ukraine collapsing or so on.
Good points
New news from Fars, Iran will not be collecting fees for 60 days. I'm not particularly a fan of that concession, it's giving the seppos 60 free days and then a murky 'maritime services' afterwards.
but then, it all falls down to if this deal will get pushed through regardless of what amerikkas rabid dog does since they haven't received any punishment for their actions yet.
🇮🇷 New details on the text of the Iran-US understanding regarding the Strait of Hormuz — An informed source in an interview with Fars
In the previous version, terms were included to guarantee this exercise of sovereignty and Iranian arrangements; but now it is written that the "future administration of maritime navigation services in the Strait of Hormuz" will be determined by Iran and Oman.
The explicit use of the term "maritime services" means that the US will recognize Iran's right to collect fees.
This principle is repeated elsewhere in the text; in such a way that Iran will only accept 60 days of free passage for ships. This means the US has accepted the principle of fee collection and has only obtained a 60-day discount from Iran.
But after these 60 days, the Islamic Republic of Iran intends to benefit from the financial revenues resulting from the passage of commercial ships through this strait for the country's economic development by providing safety, navigation, environmental, and insurance services.
In this regard, a fundamental principle was the cooperation of the other side of the Strait of Hormuz, namely the country of Oman, and the necessary negotiations to involve the Omani side have been conducted.
@RezistanceTrench
Isn't Iran asking that the UNSC ratify this agreement? Wouldn't that give some permanence to their control of the strait? My understanding is that it's not well supported under current treaties
Iran isn't a signatory to UNCLOS but I have heard that their definition of maritime borders is mostly consistent with it. I think everyone basically is forced to agree that the strait is territorial waters of Oman and Iran, which gives them a lot of legal power in principle
I agree that UNSC approval is a major stamp of legitimacy
cause usa wil bomb them again award.
New news from Fars, Iran will not be collecting fees for 60 days. I'm not particularly a fan of that concession, it's giving the seppos 60 free days and then a murky 'maritime services' afterwards.
I want to say that's a face-saving move, so that the US public can be given a couple months to forget this whole kerfuffle ever happened.
It gives them time to forget... and then be reminded immediately before the midterms?
We'll see american hegemonic discourse shift in real time into "it is actually better that Iran completely controls the strait!"
This principle is repeated elsewhere in the text; in such a way that Iran will only accept 60 days of free passage for ships. This means the US has accepted the principle of fee collection and has only obtained a 60-day discount from Iran.
But after these 60 days, the Islamic Republic of Iran intends to benefit from the financial revenues resulting from the passage of commercial ships through this strait for the country's economic development by providing safety, navigation, environmental, and insurance services.
why is this a good idea?
why not collect fees immediately?
why not collect fees immediately?
i think the emirates money (which i still think was just "laundered" american money) was the way to get paid while allowing america to save face
Has this payment been confirmed? I wouldn't trust either the Emirates or the US over the toll (or "enviromental fee") I collect myself
It'll never be confirmed. The UAE will never admit to doing so, and the Iranians have no reason to do so either. That said, the fact that Iran has been avoiding hitting the UAE with any drones or missiles whilst other Gulf nations still got pounded over the past few weeks tells me that this is likely true, and the payment has already been done.
fair enough, it's still a weird thing to say that "we will not collect tolls until day 61"
Because the other side wouldn't agree to it or anything else that directly says they can just charge arbitrary tolls. Seems like a way to get them to agree that Iran can charge a toll without saying it directly. Granted, the US could just as well see this be used as a chance to refill on fuel and then go back to where we were before the MOU after the discount period ends.
Granted, the US could just as well see this be used as a chance to refill on fuel and then go back to where we were before the MOU after the discount period ends.
which is my guess for the most likely scenario, that's why I don't understand why this wasn't an Iranian redline for the 60 day period, and then negotiating in the 60 days about the toll how much and how long etc.
if they don't collect tolls for 60 days, then on day 61 US and allies will just say "what toll?!" and then what? Iran starts shooting at tankers again on day 62? that's the plan?
doesn't sound smart to me
