SeventyTwoTrillion [he/him]
newsmore like thucydideez nuts, gottem
Image is of a satellite image from MizarVision, a Chinese firm that has recently shown pride in being sanctioned for showing uncensored images of the Middle East. The West is not allowing up-to-date satellite imagery of the region to hide destruction.
As always, my weekly summary/preamble is in spoilers below.
::: spoiler preamble Military news remained relatively subdued last week, with the main front continuing to be the Lebanon border. With dozens of vehicles destroyed and many more Zionist casualties, they are now desperately searching for a solution to the FPV drone threat, with certain analysts characterizing the whole situation as the entity stumbling foot-first into a bear trap (hence the megathread title). Unfortunately for them, two better and more resourceful militaries have spent the last year or two also searching for a solution and have generally failed - with anti-drone strategies consisting mainly of 1) build your own cheap drones designed to physically intercept their cheap drones and 2) separate your forces up rather than conducting large frontal assaults WW2-style and accept that you're gonna have to fight for many months to gain substantial ground. This also explains why they're so eager to kickstart a civil war in Lebanon, although as I've stated before, I don't personally know whether that would be a silver bullet given how the Lebanese army has been deliberately not allowed to become a threatening force due to Zionist fears, and indeed, I don't know how many Lebanese citizens and soldiers would fight against the only force in their country fighting against an army trying to annex their territory and which murders hundreds of people at a time in aerial bombings on their cities.
Aside from the ever-worsening global economic catastrophe, the main event has been the US visiting China. Trump clearly intended to time the summit such that it took place after subjugating Iran and perhaps also Cuba. However, with the former goal not even remotely achieved, and the latter goal delayed - hopefully indefinitely, though the US still seems pretty intent on it - it all amounted to a big nothingburger. Marxist economist Michael Roberts has written up a great piece on the current state of the US-China economic conflict, stating among things that, despite the last decade of US sanctions and economic warfare, the Chinese economy has done extremely well, building up their own domestic industries to replace commodities lost from sanctions. China has, up to this point, refused to withdraw its aid from Iran, and seems to be looking to start moving its tankers through the Strait via Iran's new tolling mechanism.
China obviously continues to maintain its position on Taiwan, and Trump has continued the US tradition of respecting this in words and disrespecting it in actions, but it's becoming clear to everybody but the most delusional diehards that the US will not be fighting China in and around the Pacific for at least a couple decades, and likely never will. There is little choice. The Ramadan War has definitively proven that the US has been severely militarily and logistically weakened over the decades despite skyrocketing military budgets, and much of their equipment, strategies, and tactics are woefully outdated for the modern battlefield. The prospect of the US fighting a war against China and not immediately losing has gone from "almost implausible" to "hilariously absurd". Unable to meaningfully impede China, the US will have to content itself to increasingly ineffective sanctions campaigns and bullying/overthrowing nations that do not currently have much of a capacity to resist. In that vein, one hopes that Iran and friends will share their expertise in drone technology and underground fortification around the world. The age of the tunnel is upon us. :::
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::: spoiler The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
:::
::: spoiler Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
:::
"Kyiv may not be winning the war, but has stopped losing . . . " -CNN
Does seem like things have slowed to a crawl lately. Perhaps the advances in drone tech make it basically impossible to advance anymore without taking unacceptable losses.
A little Libyan military news:
The Libyan National Army (LNA) which currently controls southern and eastern Libya is conducting what officers describe as its biggest military exercise yet -- one which sends a message to both friends and foes, the American portal Al-Monitor reported, citing LNA spokesman General Abdallah Noureddine.
The portal notes that over 25,000 troops are participating in the exercises under the command of Marshal Khalifa Haftar. On May 19, Haftar and his sons intend to attend the exercise, accompanied by foreign military observers. General Noureddine emphasized that the exercise is intended to demonstrate to the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord the true balance of power within Libya. In April, the United States conducted the Flintlock 2026 special operations exercise in Libya, which involved the armed forces of both rival Libyan governments.
https://tass.com/world/2132387
https://archive.ph/2q3Fv
The U.S. Air Force Has a 1,800-Pilot Deficit — Pilots Leaving for Commercial Airlines That Pay 2x USAF Pay
The U.S. Air Force has a 1,800-pilot deficit. USAF pilots are leaving for commercial airlines that pay 2x USAF pay. The USAF pilot base pay is capped at approximately $200K (per legal cap). Senior commercial wide-body captains earn $450K-$550K — double the USAF cap. 1/3 of military pilots transition directly into commercial airlines.
::: spoiler more
The U.S. Air Force Pilot Problem
US Air Force pilots are highly trained assets, essentially seven- to eight-figure strategic investments. And by most standards, the compensation pilots enjoy is strong. Yet the Air Force has a retention crisis that persists. Outwardly, this may seem like a paradox: good benefits vs high attrition. But the attrition is explainable; while the Air Force offers stability and prestige, commercial aviation simply offers more money and more control over their lives.
Breaking Down USAF Compensation
An Air Force pilot’s base pay is rank-based. An O-1 makes about $50k while an O-4 makes between $75k and $100k. Senior officers can make $150 and beyond. By mid-career, pilots earn between $115k and $155k, while at the senior level, they earn over $200k in base salary. Flight pay bumps total earnings, usually between $150 and $1,000 per month. Retention bonuses sweeten the pot, too, inspiring some pilots to stay in uniform with $50k per year or $600k over the contract length. So compensation is clearly solid—but it’s also capped.
Tax Advantages and Extras
In addition to base salary, pilots receive BAH (housing) of $20k to $40k per year and another $3,900 per year for BAS (food). A large portion of this is tax-free. So the take-home pay is higher than just the base salary suggests. Pilots also receive 100% medical coverage through TRICARE. Families are covered, too, with a minimal out-of-pocket expense. This is one of the strongest healthcare packages in the US workforce. And SGLI life insurance offers up to $400k.
Retirement System
Once an Air Force pilot hits the 20-year pension mark, an immediate payout of roughly 40 to 50 percent of base pay is triggered. For example, an O-5 pension would be $50k to $80k per year. And critically, pilots do not need to wait until they turn 65 to collect the pension; it begins immediately. So a 42-year-old can hit the 20-year mark, retire from the Air Force, collect $60k per year in passive income, and start a second career making an additional six figures. This pension is extremely valuable—but it requires a 20-year commitment. Additionally, the 401(k) equivalent, the TSP, offers a 5% match.
Lifestyle Benefits
Pilots receive 30 days of paid leave per year, double the two weeks many civilian jobs offer. Pilots can also continue their education through tuition assistance and the GI Bill, which can be used for graduate school or transferred to a spouse/child. The Air Force assists with travel, too, allowing pilots and their families to take Space-A flights on military transport, thereby saving on airfare. When a pilot is ready to buy a home, the VA loan allows him or her to do so with zero percent down, saving tens of thousands of dollars up front relative to the twenty percent civilians typically have to put down. So the Air Force offers a strong and comprehensive support structure. So why are so many pilots leaving the Air Force?
The Lifestyle Reality
Healthcare and tax-free allowances aside, there are downsides to life as an Air Force pilot. Deployments can last six to 12 months. PCS moves require the pilot and their family to relocate every two to three years. The schedule is never stable; it constantly changes. The operational tempo is high, owing to the 1,800-pilot deficit. As more pilots leave and the shortage deepens, the operational tempo intensifies, further degrading the quality of life. And the unfortunate truth is that as officers advance, they spend most of their time on administrative tasks, with flying accounting for only a minority of their workload. So the lifestyle is demanding, variable, and ironically, often not centered on flying an aircraft.
Why Pilots Leave
Pilots are leaving because their pay is capped relative to their talent set. They can stay in for 30 years and never earn base pay above the legal cap, barely above $200k. The airlines, meanwhile, cap pay at around $550k. That’s double the money to fly to Amsterdam and back. And because airlines are organized around a rigid seniority system, leaving the Air Force earlier means higher lifetime earnings at the commercial airlines. Of course, commercial pilots choose where to live, thereby granting their families a degree of stability over military life, within which the military decides where you and your family live, forcing relocation every few years. That gets old. The commercial route also eliminates the administrative burden of being an Air Force officer. Pilots want to fly; they don’t join the Air Force to do desk work. At United, Delta, or American, pilots fly; they don’t do desk work. And in the commercials, pilots sidestep the high operational tempo of Air Force life. In short, commercial aviation gives pilots more money, more control, and that pilot-specific identity that desk work stifles.
...
Transition Dynamics
This is why one-third of military pilots transition directly into the airlines. The advantage is that most military pilots already have the 1,500 flight hours commercial carriers require for hiring, which means immediate employability. Transitioning early-plug pilots into the seniority rankings earlier means millions more are earned over the course of their lifetime. So the commercial system actually incentivizes an early exit from the military.
Strategic Implications
The draw of commercial aviation has created a retention crisis that impacts readiness. The training pipeline is being strained; replacement pilots are very expensive. And the departure of senior pilots leaves an experience gap, with roles being filled by more junior pilots. Over the long term, this results in degraded combat capability. So pilot retention is essentially a national security issue.
:::
Kind of amazing that US culture worships their air force pilots more than any other member of the military, and even then they still don't pay them anywhere near what they are worth.
The airforce pilot>commercial airline pilot pipeline offered such a great income plus perks and prestige that the airforce has never had a problem finding people who want to fly - until now. Maybe no one has good enough eyesight or - what caught my friend out - a lack of mental illness. They won't let anyone depressed or suicidal fly for them, and in today's world of mental health awareness that cuts out a lot of likely pilots.
I'm holding off the planned attack that no one knew about until now. Thanks, Donald!
Exact same content of message, for weeks. Donny not very good at weaseling out of this one it seems.
Ah, well, nevertheless [keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed and don't budge from their demands]
are markets still reacting to this shit?
if those markets were based on any material reality they would be very upset right now
it was kinda weird, spy shot up when the post first dropped, then it started falling again for like 10-20 min before shooting back up like last 20-30 min of the day and nearly ended green presumably still based off of the same post
A little bit, two planted lies today resulted in oil going up only slightly, by like 1%.
He’s a creative old man
He's waiting for special forces to be put in place. Surely he can't mean an invasion?
He's been posting non-stop about missiles and other stuff I think so maybe he just means more of what went on last time?
It's been some weeks so I'm sure he's been coo'd and comforted by his entourage and AI chat bots into thinking he can really gettem this time if he wanted to, for seriousies. He actually held back last time in his mind.
I can't imagine the US going nuclear (they rather like ruling an world that has cool shit), but I can imagine a sundowning Trump deciding that nuclear is the only way to assuage his ego. Would anyone even oppose him?
i think if he ever actually tried his cabinet would use the 25th amendment on him
can his cabinet do that lmfao
it's technically temporary, and trump can push it to congress to make his cabinet give him his toys back
Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department [sic][note 2][7] or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.
so, his cabinet would only ever do this if trump were trying to like nuke china or russia (or some other similarly catastrophic thing) because that's the only thing that could get the repubs in congress to agree to remove him from office
Two dead after attacking a mosque in San Diego
https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/san-diego-police-responding-to-reports-of-an-active-shooter-at-the-islamic-center-of-san-diego/4025204/
We're going to hear denunciation of Islamophobia, right? Right?
Hopefully the casualties among the mosque members is minimal but I see one had already passed.
We're going to hear denunciation of Islamophobia, right? Right?
Shouldn’t be the leading headline but seems like a good strategic move.
Wow, uh, I didn't expect much, but finding a way to spin it that way...
oh my fucking god
that account is now justifying the shooting because of a victim's facebook reposts
Nah they'll find a way to spin this as "see the left only cares when muslims die!!! :smuglord: "
CBC is reporting 5 killed, 3 victims and 2 shooters
Edit: Looks like the shooters were 17 & 19, preliminary reports are saying they killed themselves
Cops wouldn’t be likely to shoot them.
US SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) fell by ~10 million barrels last week, setting a new record. Keep in mind that over 10 million barrels PER DAY are being blocked at Hormuz.
As expected, sour crude (that is the primary crude type from the Middle East) is down more, ~6mb, while sweet is down ~4mb. The fast rate of drawdown is starting to worry some experts, those salt caves weren't designed for that. It could compromise their structural integrity.
Sour crude reserves: 232mb, sweet crude reserves: 142mb.
So it is going to be 1 more year of this.
They are drawing down the SPR at record pace and still are only able to replace less than one day of the Hormuz deficit per week. The rest of the world is doing the same. So oil inventories everywhere are still dropping. SPR can't be (legally and practically) drawn down to zero just at the whim of the Trump admin, so this can't go on for more than ~2 months. There is a certain minimum of reserves in the system, where stuff begins to break down. Refineries can't run out of crude even for 5 minutes or they can break down. Pressures in pipelines/storage can drop, resulting in low flow even tho oil is still there. Also logistics can become a problem.
I hope you are right man, It's going to take more than 2 months to send the new crude from Iran all the way to Europe and america, so if it's 2 months, we are already in the fun zone it's just that there is a lag.
I guess I have to agree with your "hope" here. Our planet entering the Cool Zone is not something that I look forward to, but Iran is under attack by the terrorist USIS forces and entering (or at least demonstrating the ability to create it) the Cool Zone is part of their self-defense strategy. Now it is up to the fascist forces in the USIS and Europe to show if they are capable of stepping away from it, even if this means that they aren't able to kill millions of Iranians for fun & steal their oil. I am just not sure they can walk away from that tho. Once the Cool Zone is close, the fascists might react in exactly the opposite way to how most people expect and restart the war anyway and make everything even worse on purpose.
You can look at it another way, what we have, is due to plundering the middle east. A collapse of oil infrastructure or even industrial civilization, it's the way it should have been. If Iran can't profit from oil, the rest of us shouldn't either. These last hundred years of history were built on the blood and freedom of middle easterners, and they deserve restitution, failing that, a "demand readjustment" is the next best thing, the more the better, even if I myself get adjusted.
The pressure in the reserves can drop significantly if the levels drop too low, and the oil itself can spoil the longer it's exposed. Different refineries can only process certain types of Crude, yada yada yada.
The true figure is hard to place when using averages to measure this shit when the reserves are actually dozens of facilities that have their own failure points and shutoff levels. We'll see things judder to a halt well before the charts drop to zero.
yeah, i dont think the reserves would ever be completely tapped outside of a genuinely existentialist threat to the state, so never happening outside of a civil war magically springing up out of no where
from my understanding they will never actually fully withdraw these reserves because withdrawing them too low will permanently damage the reserves or something like this. even if they do (whether because im misinformed or they're that stupid, doesnt matter which really) it would be more like 3/4 of a year
Schumer and his staff must have thought "personal rewards program" was very, very clever. Sad.
Schumer blasts $1.7 billion fund to compensate Trump allies. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer says the Trump administration’s creation of a $1.7 billion compensation fund is “corruption happening in broad daylight.” The fund is aimed at compensating allies of the Republican president who believe they were mistreated by the Biden administration Justice Department. “Of all the corrupt things he has done, this is one of the most depraved,” Schumer said in a prepared statement.
“No president should be able to use the Department of Justice as a personal rewards program for the people who helped him attack our democracy.”
Hitting them were it really hurts Chuck
How often does Hezbollah use surface-to-air missiles?
Al Jazeera - Hezbollah says fired surface-to-air missile at Israeli warplane The Lebanese armed group has said that its forces “confronted an Israeli warplane in the airspace of the western sector” at 14:15 local time with a surface-to-air missile. There was no immediate comment from the Israeli army. In another attack, Hezbollah said it targeted a gathering of vehicles and soldiers of the Israeli army at the port in the town of Naqoura with a drone strike.
Hezbollah's weakness has always been its poor air defense stocks. The Houthis were incredibly lucky to have inherited most of the Yemeni airforce stockpile.
BREAKING: One protester has been killed by the police under the direction of Ruto’s regime in an attempt to instill fear among the masses. This is psychological warfare against the poor, against workers, against the unemployed youth.
https://nitter.net/BookerBiro/status/2056323561346765252
kenya has some sort of a strike/protest (i find it rather hard to get the size of them)
- Drills were conducted to storm the Esfahan nuclear site using commando forces to extract enriched uranium.
- From what I heard (and it doesn't matter who told me), the enriched uranium is not buried deep underground in Esfahan, and once inside the facility, the pipes can be extracted. This journalist has previously revealed, through slips of the tongue, much of what military censorship refuses to publish, including the issue of SIM cards that the Shin Bet distributed in Gaza on the eve of the war, and which were activated on the evening of October 6th.
https://nitter.net/ME_Observer_/status/2056418953132413379
hopefully mr. iran hasn't forgotten to mine to shits everything around, although who knows, their perfomance during rescue attempt doesn't inspire confidence
did you not read that story about how long it took the US to withdraw kazakhstan's uranium in secret, and that was with the full consent of their government? i really dont see the need to doom about this
They already tried this, they lost a dozen aricraft in 2 days, had to blow up their own special forces so they wouldn't get captured, the day after they negotiated the ceasefire.
they successfully landed several planes inside, suffered rather minimal (if any) casualties, and were not reported to be there for a day, at least. i find it somewhat plausible they can land a plane, jump in humvees and ride to isfahan where they may or may not fill some buckets with sand or real stuff and leave under the cover of drones (not a single fighting video was posted during previous attempt, which seems their air suppression was sufficient enough to delay iranians from reaching the airfield)
(which is why mining to shits is the only viable strat)
*this is all ignoring possibility of another bit of virtual warfare a la venezuela, where some faction inside iran greenlights the operation, because it saves face for both parties (usa claims another wonder weapon and prowess of specops, libs in iran claim "never wanted that uranium anyway, was a silly idea, lets talk hormuz")
There were several videos,one had a smaller helicopter on flames, some had a machine gun emplacement shooting at someone. One of their troop planes was already on fire as it landed. Of the 3 that came one left, so likely 2/3 casualties, this was after they had been hiting military depot's around Isfahan with everything they had for 2 weeks
helicopter was nowhere near ishafan airfield though, no? (probably the one doing actual pilot rescue).
for planes it was like 2/4, plus casualties i mean dead criminals, not some money sink
The helicopter I was referring, was one of the "little birds" flying while completely on flames in a desert, the fixed machine gun video was in a similar place, those videos seemed to be from sround midday. the pilot ones were in a much greener place.
But we already see smoke coming out of the cargo planes at dawn.
Presumably those planes were full of criminals, if they lost 2 out of 3, how did they get their criminals out, let's say one was for the helicopters, there is still one plane worth of criminals, they had to blow up as they hastily retreated. If they retreated, they were suffering casualties.
What is hidden is greater.
Our sources within the Bolivian police have confirmed that they've received orders to use live ammunition against the indigenous long march that is arriving today in the capital.Protesters are aware and heading down regardless, to defend the country and its natural resources. Patriotic factions within the police & military have kept us informed of all plans & movements. That's how we got the documents confirming the joint operation with US armed forces to arrest Evo Morales.
I haven't been in the loop much, what happened to the Bolivian socialist project
MAS (Evo's political Party) imploded and lost power to the neoliberals and far-right.
bet the infighters feel real smart now
Why shouldn't they? Arce had abandoned the base and events in the last week+ have been good for that same base.
Infighters were just one infighting session away from creating the ideologically perfect organization though
dont worry the last one left alive will have the perfect formula for socialism that can work with capitalism and can be implemented as early as 2500
Yeah when the military and police start snitching you're fucked. Paz better have dipped for his own sake coz this looks like squeaky bum time
The US & Israeli governments have published statements condemning the general strike in Bolivia. The working class of a tiny country can scare even the most powerful global elites. Imagine if Latin America united, or Africa, or across Asia, or globally? We outnumber them.
Why is the US preparing a military intervention against Bolivia?
- Their humiliating defeat in Iran has shattered myth of US invincibility. They need to reassert power elsewhere.
- Bolivia's general strike shows the rest of Latin America how to overthrow US puppet regimes.
The general strike + barricades blocking highways has paralyzed the government. If sustained, the neoliberal govt will collapse and it'll show the rest of the region how to overthrow their own US puppet regimes that impoverish them. US wants to crush this idea.
The US & Israeli governments have published statements condemning the general strike in Bolivia.
If I saw a headline that said "The US & Israeli governments have published statements condemning the Puppy Shredding Machine" I'd automatically assume the puppies deserved it.
The Puppy Shredding Machine only shreds Sad Puppies (gamergaters but for books)
Their humiliating defeat in Iran has shattered myth of US invincibility. They need to reassert power elsewhere.
I wonder if the sudden cancelling of that US Army deployment in Poland has something to do with this? Although that's an Armored BCT (that is, Abrams tanks and Bradley IFVs), which doesn't exactly seem like the ideal choice to quickly redeploy to a country full of mountains and jungle.
Or maybe that unit is being brought back to replace other units which are actually being deployed from the continental US.
:sicko-yield-watching: give me 6.5 or give me sp500 crash
It would be kind of funny if high mortgage rates caused the housing market to crash first. So much talk about oil and AI, but then the good old housie goes boom again!
it's funny, but i think debt is charging profits, just no one is realizing it*:
***i realized i am a dum-dum, cause interest payments (of course) go inside deficit smdh, so it doesn't fit as nicely, but i leave it here for hubris
*as in abusing it as an exploit, some people make similar observations of course
**which makes a suspended economy plot possible - the debt and dollar recirculation pushing profits so high, s&p (or rather nasdaq) ignoring the economy underneath becoming even more k-hole shaped, and going upwards evermore with rising yields and interest payments, thus increasing spending by upper quintile, further speeding up dollar recirculation, this shit is like feverdream of silver imports in spain of 1500s, only with digits in some computers (and china is involved as well lmao).
Just before an election the dems love to do stuff that might help them electorally. They didn't do anything about this for five years.
House lawmakers hear from Epstein’s jail guard. The House Oversight Committee is interviewing Tova Noel, the former guard who was working the night that Jeffrey Epstein died in a New York jail cell in 2019. Noel and the other guard on duty that night, Michael Thomas, have admitted to falsifying records after facing federal charges in 2021 that stemmed from Epstein’s death. New York City’s medical examiner ruled his death a suicide, but conspiracy theories have swirled around his death for years.
House lawmakers have said they want to examine the conditions at the jail at the time Epstein died.
Dems/their donors are just as implicated as Republicans & their donors which is why neither party is pulling on the Epstein thread too hard
Gustavo Petro's administration in Colombia reaches a 54.8% (+9.8% Since February) overall approval rating. Data from a national survey by Celag Geopolitics (May 2026).
The economic management of Gustavo Petro's government in Colombia has a 53.8% (+3.4% Since February) positive perception. This data is part of an overall assessment of his administration.
President Gustavo Petro's approval rating in Colombia remains at 50.3% (+5.1% Since February), according to a recent poll.
Fake Reports that the Bolivian President, Rodrigo Paz, has fled the country. Though there are rumors he might try and run away to Argentina or Paraguay.
Iran:
US demands are still excessive, despite draft changes
Iran demands Trump unfreeze all cash and frozen assets
The news that the US changed its negotiating text slightly was used in a deceptive way to bring down oil futures this morning, everyone made it sound like some sanctions have actually been lifted, when in reality only the non-starter US negotiating position has slightly shifted. The impact on oil futures wasn't big and the futures are already back to where they were
Trump's new rant, it looks like the admin is really starting to feel the pressure. His Truth Social feed is really something, including AI slop pictures of him pressing a big red button with nuclear and laser explosions going off behind him.
If Iran surrenders, admits their Navy is gone and resting at the bottom of the sea, and their Air Force is no longer with us, and if their entire Military walks out of Tehran, weapons dropped and hands held high, each shouting “I surrender, I surrender” while wildly waving the representative White Flag, and if their entire remaining Leadership signs all necessary “Documents of Surrender,” and admit their defeat to the great power and force of the magnificent U.S.A., The Failing New York Times, The China Street Journal (WSJ!), Corrupt and now Irrelevant CNN, and all other members of the Fake News Media, will headline that Iran had a Masterful and Brilliant Victory over The United States of America, it wasn’t even close. The Dumacrats and Media have totally lost their way. They have gone absolutely CRAZY!!! President DJT
Birol;
Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, said on Monday that commercial oil inventories were depleting rapidly with only a few weeks worth left due to the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping.
Asked about his comments in the G7 meeting, he said he described "a perception gap in the markets between the physical markets and the financial markets" for oil.
Formatting tip: instead of a single dash, use four in a row ---- to make a horizontal bar:
Asked about his comments in the G7 meeting, he said he described "a perception gap in the markets between the physical markets and the financial markets" for oil.
it is easier to fool a market than to convince a market it has been fooled
or
it is difficult to get a market to understand something when its income depends on it not understanding
It looks like X/Twitter is trying to save as much money as possible, probably running low on cash. Twitter is now part of SpaceX and the SpaceX IPO is next month, they are planning to get at least $50 billion of free cash from it. I'm guessing a lot of insiders will use the opportunity to cash out. The IPO cash infusion should solve their problems for a while.
X/Twitter free users now have a daily limit of 50 posts, including tweets, reposts, and quote posts, plus 200 replies.
There’s also a cooldown timer once you hit a certain posting limit close to 50 posts before 24 hours.
Some users are also reporting being locked out after just a couple of tweets.
Twitter is now part of SpaceX and the SpaceX IPO is next month, they are planning to get at least $50 billion of free cash from it.
Ah yes, this makes great sense. Most efficient economic system at work, folks
Tesla CFO said in the 2026Q1 earnings call that they expect Tesla to be cashflow negative in 2026. SpaceX is already cashflow negative. It is really possible that the richest person on the planet will owe his wealth to businesses that are in the red. Amazing stuff.
Will this get people to stop using the bad web site that was never good?
No
The enshitiffication continues
Surprised they didn't just give Elon control over the Federal Reserve at some point along the DOGE arc.
Lol. Lmao, even.
The Guardian - Ryanair said it has “almost zero concerns” about its jet fuel supplies this summer amid fears over widespread cancellations linked to the Iran war but warned that holidaymakers booking their flights later this year could face higher fares. The budget airline’s chief executive, Michael O’Leary, said Europe had now found plenty of alternative sources of jet fuel, but persistent consumer uncertainty had led to lower summer bookings than usual, keeping fares down.
He said: “There was a real concern in Europe two months ago. We now have almost zero concerns over fuel supplies in Europe. The challenge remains price.” The travel industry has been hit by worries about jet fuel supply this summer, as shipping through the strait of Hormuz remains restricted. Ryanair said Europe is well stocked with fuel thanks to shipments from west Africa, Norway and the Americas.
While Ryanair has hedged 80% of its jet fuel requirements to April 2027 at about $67 a barrel, it said the carrier’s unit costs could rise by about 5% if fuel prices remained higher, it said. You can read the full story by my colleagues Lauren Almeida and Gwyn Topham here: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/may/18/ryanair-jet-fuel-shortage-fare-rises-book-flights-higher-prices
Lol he's so full of shit. I've been telling friends and family to not book more than a month in advance coz holiday insurance won't mean shit if every airline runs out of fuel and/or liquidity at once.
all the hedging in the world won't help you if there's no fuel to be delivered and the people who owe it to you go bankrupt
Maybe I'm wrong here, but it seems to me that the US has been more affected by the rise in oil prices so far? Sure, prices in Europe were higher to begin with, but as a % increase, is the US currently worse off? This might be due to US airlines no longer hedging jet fuel prices (LOL) and because the US admin is trying to keep global prices low by selling as much of strategic reserves and commercial stocks as possible, while also trying to bring oil prices down with fake news.
The US had a much lower price floor to begin with I spose. But yeah so far there's been a lot of fiscal tomfoolery to mask the effects where it matters. Meanwhile, the real crisis is bubbling underneath with shit like rural "off grid" homes being charged 3-5x their regular price for heating oil.
Bolivia: Pro-Morales Marchers Vow to Join Protests Demanding President Paz’s Resignation
A six‑day, 188‑kilometer march of supporters loyal to former president Evo Morales arrived near La Paz on Sunday, with plans to join ongoing protests and roadblocks that have paralyzed parts of the country for 12 days, as demonstrators demand the resignation of President Rodrigo Paz.
What does the Bolivian movement need to achieve? What is a successful outcome and how revolutionary can it get?
The simple demand on its face is resignation of the current president, right wing dipshit Rodrigo Paz. That seems inevitable at this point given reports he's filed for asylum in Argentina. Then what? A caretaker president for a few months until new elections that the government can fuck with as they please? It would be a victory, but not sufficient to guarantee lasting popular, democratic sovereignty over Bolivia's development. This is essentially what lead to Evo and MAS winning power in 2005, and we see now both the successes and limitations of that. Can they go further, then?
We could see the establishment of a provisional government that substantially revitalizes or revises the 2009 constitution, which was promulgated by Evo Morales and MAS but is perhaps a bit long in the tooth, given new challenges. A constituent assembly process for a new constitution that grows out of these fresh revolutionary conditions would be appropriate. Or perhaps they could go as far as placing Evo back into power, openly breaking constitutional and electoral norms. That may not be wholly necessary, given that elections were a key role in the revolutionary victories of MAS in 2005 and the Bolivarian Revolution a few years earlier. South American democracies are surprisingly well suited for a mixture of electoral and insurrectionary tactics to secure revolutionary victories, but they always seem restrained in establishing true DOTPs that can withstand the predation of the US.
The best defense, though, is not being alone. If Brazil and Colombia stand with the people's movements of Bolivia, Peru, and Ecuador, if we see a Socialism of the 21st Century domino effect that reestablishes a more unified and lasting Pink Tide, then the continent will be that much stronger. Conditions are optimistic, in my analysis.
edit: another thought: the Bolivarian Revolution and Cuban Revolution are each forced into a desperate defensive posture right now, going into hunker-down survival mode. If they are going to survive, they'll depend on solidarity from their region that can really only be forged by revolutionary movements.
well, in more ukrainian manpower crisis news https://xcancel.com/Alex_Oloyede2/status/2056012305733755008 https://archive.ph/YaXQl
🇺🇦 The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has requested the Ukrainian Ministry of Health release doctors and health care workers for Frontline roles. I've never seen the collapse of a country on such a scale.
Whatever rump Ukrainian state is left after the end of the war will be a failed state populated almost solely by pensioners and children, and burdened with impossible debts and a non-functional economy. Made all the worse by the fact this now inevitability was completely avoidable if literally anyone in the West had been serious about the Minsk agreements or if they didn't give Ukraine infinite empty promises in exchange for pulling out of the Istanbul talks. Very fucking grim.
Also everyone would be armed. This is just the next Afghanistan.
I bet we'll find out what happened to all those arms that mysteriously disappeared after the war ends when the nazis left standing start doing terrorism across Europe with all those international connections they've been allowed to make over the past decade and a half. Just in time for skyrocketing energy prices to send the continent into a depression, giving fascists fertile ground for agitation if the left can't rise to the occasion. Europe is headed for some serious Cool Zone shit.
Clearly a good sign because its not like you need medical workers during a war, right?
Tbf, technically it seems like they're not mobilizing doctors as frontline soldiers, but to replace military medics. From the article:
Sovsun said some military doctors had spent years on the front line without rotation because there were not enough available replacements, as civilian doctors remained protected from mobilization.
except, you know, this means now leaving civilians with less medical care
Liashko said the exemptions were originally introduced to ensure Ukraine’s healthcare system could continue functioning during wartime, including treating wounded soldiers in both military and civilian hospitals.
...
In Ukraine, most medical workers employed in public healthcare system are eligible for draft exemptions, known as “reservation” status, allowing them to avoid mobilization while continuing civilian medical work during wartime. The system was introduced to ensure hospitals and emergency medical services could continue functioning amid Russia’s full-scale invasion, particularly as civilian hospitals also treat large numbers of wounded soldiers.
So yeah, if you're a civilian in Ukraine, best try not to get sick from anything beyond a cold that can be treated with over-the-counter medication (and that's until they mobilize the pharmacists too...)
amid Russia's full-scale invasion
SHUT UP SHUT UP SHUT UP SHUT UP SHUT UP
Russia’s “full scale invasion”
They can’t drop the propaganda for five seconds even in the most desperate situation.
Less than a fifth of their forces are deployed in Ukraine. Did full scale (all available resources) find a new meaning in the last five years?
The dilution of meaning is the meaning
https://xcancel.com/ArmchairW/status/2056116495545991670
General Gerasimov recently announced the village of Borovaya had been taken by the Russian Army. This set off a storm of accusations that he was lying, because no mapper had Russian troops anywhere near the town in force. Today the MoD posted proof they seized it weeks ago.
You can watch the video for yourself, it's attached. Notice that the leaves are off the trees, indicating that the assault went in and the Russians cleared the town during the March-April timeframe. Thus as far as the Russian Army was concerned, their holding Borovaya was old news and they were presumably quite surprised to see frenzied Telegram blowback on the announcement. No "serious" mapper as of yesterday had Russian troops anywhere near the town - most had their front line approximately five kilometers to the north. And as I pointed out earlier, this seizure was actually old news to the point the Russians felt comfortable announcing it officially. By now the true Russian front line is likely some ways south of the town and the area is secure. There's an old saying in America, "The people who know aren't talking, and the people who talk don't know." The Russians have always had good operational security in general, and earlier this year one of the only side-channels that voenkor commentators used to communicate with their few actual front-line sources - pirated Starlink terminals - were bricked. Cut off from the front line, Russian civilian commentators fell back on analyzing Ukrainian propaganda (something they've always heavily relied upon) at the exact moment the Ukrainians also seem to have tightened their own OPSEC and become institutionally aware of the role their own propaganda was playing in mapping Russian advances for the public and refuting their narrative of constant success.
(This is why broenkors have been screaming and rending their garments about Starlink access. It's their leak vector. The Russian Army never officially used pirated terminals to any significant extent and may have in fact intentionally triggered the crackdown to choke off an OPSEC risk by putting a couple pirated terminals on cruise drones.)
I specifically believe that the Ukrainians have imposed media and even propaganda blackouts in two sectors - Kupyansk and Zaporozhie - in which they attempted to launch counteroffensives in the last six months. Both of those attacks failed, but the blackouts seemingly remain to avoid embarrassment - and given the Russians only post front updates sporadically and in accordance with their own OPSEC requirements, this means that the front lines in both sectors probably bear little resemblance to the war mappers' current traces. Given that all of this also happened in the February-April timeframe this further suggests that the Russian "pause" in March of this year was simply a reporting artifact and that they're sitting on significant unrecognized gains. Which the Russian MoD has in fact reported on two occasions now during high-level updates, but the mappers refused to believe them!
I'm also skeptical. One thing I have found interesting is that the ISW map doesn't show Borova in Ukraine via the search function at all. They have an obvious pro Ukrainian slant, but would they stoop to not even showing villages? I was able to find it on the map (labeled correctly), but only after using other sources to place the village.
ISW is, uh, pretty wild when it comes to stooping https://archive.ph/rht0F
Think tanker altered Ukraine war map before big Polymarket payout
The Institute for the Study of War disavowed the edit, removed the employee, but is staying quiet, raising questions about the credibility of ISW and prediction gambling
Lol that's really wild. Thanks for sharing.
It's an interesting theory, but I'm skeptical. Supposedly the videos released weren't actually from Borova, though I can't verify that myself. Could be a psyop to make Ukrainian leadership dismiss the advances, but that feels like a stretch.
(CW) ::: spoiler spoiler :::
:Bad News Everyone
the Whale named Timmy or Hope is certainly not named Hope anymore. After he was succesfully released next to (suspicious) Denmark , his Dead Body has now been washed Ashore atthe Island of Anholt
Naooooo
Can you put a CW on this for the dead animal? Thanks
for the dead animal?
his name was timmy !
😭
@VComrade
To continue our conversation on the previous thread:
Again, no they don't have alot to lose. At this point in time, it has far less to do with what they have to lose, and much more to do with what they gain by continuing a controlled conflict. The West (in particular the Democrats, but everyone gets their hands dirty here) gets to continue it's political money laundering operations, both sides get to continue to develop their MIC, and both sides get to test combat technology in a live-fire environment.
Winning or losing doesn't matter at this point, both sides are making money in their respective games, it's why bourgeois wars are interminable, and why communism is an absolute necessity for war to ever have a chance to end. They don't have to have an end goal, the war itself is profitable for them.
My mind is consumed by the struggles in South America lately.
Ivan Cepeda’s Double Fight Against Colombian Right-wing Factions
::: spoiler spoiler In these presidential elections in Colombia in May and June, the task of the left is singular, but twofold. Another defeat for Uribe in his two far-right versions, Paloma Valencia and Abelardo de la Espriella. For now, the first defeat, that of Paloma, according to polls, trends, and observations, seems cooked.
She will not make it to the second round. His candidate, taken from Uribe’s pocket and assembled like an automated doll, in the image and likeness of her father and creator, will be widely defeated by Iván Cepeda and the ultra-rightist Abelardo de la Espriella. That first defeat implies that, according to all forecasts, the most viable candidate to close in the second round will not be there.
The foolish idea that this Paloma, supposedly from the center, could gather more loose and slightly off-track votes in the second round than those of Abelardo would no longer be valid or have a future. Cepeda’s strongest opponent, due to the division of the far right, the one who could make the biggest dent, will be relegated. One to zero in these soccer times. Leftist Iván Cepeda Leads Colombia Presidential Race, Spanish Poll Finds : Ivan Cepeda’s Double Fight Against Colombian Right-wing Factions
But the other match is coming to defeat de la Espriella in the second round, if Iván Cepeda does not defeat them both in the first, an option that is increasingly present. In any case, the final match is easier for Iván Cepeda to win against de la Espriella for a definitive 2-0 against Uribe. Those apparently undecided or center votes, which can reach 15% of the electorate, will largely not be received by de la Espriella as it could have happened with Paloma.
Rather, not a few of them will nourish Cepeda’s figures in the face of the refusal of those center people to vote for such an extreme and frivolous option as that of Abelardo and his theses that are basically primary, commonplace, and recalcitrant. Without a doubt, nothing is better for Cepeda than facing the lawyer and not the landowner. In any case, the great loser, Uribe, will surely be trying to converge all his forces on Abelardo, who will surely moderate his speech, but even so Uribe will not be able to mobilize his non-fanatic electorate.
The averaged polls agree. In the second round, Cepeda would take more than 10 points from Abelardo and only 4 from Paloma, who would no longer be there. Although Cepeda’s triumph would largely be due to the immense current that President Petro contributes, he has also grown on his own, without reaching a ceiling, which gives him options to triumph in the first round.
And the friendly fire from the far right in the first and probably in the second round will end up benefiting him in the midst of a firm unity of the left and a growth of opinion that increases in cascade in the popular Colombian sectors. In the second round, Abelardo has it difficult, because while Uribe would support him, Paloma has said that she is not going to carry his bags. Things of hatred between them, which this time are a guarantee of their division.
Paloma is heading towards the abyss and there seems to be no strategy to stop her fall in the midst of increasingly strange, foolish and negatively effective propaganda campaigns, somewhat ridiculous and too aggressive like her self-debates with herself. Meanwhile, even sectors of the right land in Cepeda’s field, in a correlation of forces widely favorable to the continuity of change. In the elections of May 31, half of Uribe’s defeat seems consummated and in June the final blow will come.
Everything indicates that Uribe loses in all scenarios and with it the country triumphs, which will probably get rid of the intellectual author of a long history of perversities in decline forever. :::
The right in Colombia appears to have totally fallen apart. Respected Comrade Petro has taken the left's first shot at power in Colombia in decades and fucking crushed it, setting up Cepeda to have a comfortable victory in the fall. If Cepeda is politically strong and popular, then the Colombian people will have solved one of the problems that always plagues South American leftists: succession. Not only that, but it will be a doubly powerful mandate against the right. It would be even further substantially bolstered by popular movements winning against the right in other parts of the continent.
abelardo's advertising is intensely fascist but without any design sense or aesthetic appeal to redeem it, I absolutely hate seeing it around. but I see way more pacto histórico stuff in my area
::: spoiler example of the fashvertising :::
Latin American fascists really think their time is coming.
In a way, they're right.
Pakistan deploys jet squadron, thousands of troops to Saudi Arabia during Iran war
Pakistan has deployed 8,000 troops, a squadron of fighter jets and an air defence system to Saudi Arabia under a mutual defence pact, ramping up military cooperation with Riyadh even as Islamabad serves as the main mediator in the Iran war.
The deployment, the full scale of which is reported here for the first time, was confirmed by three security officials and two government sources
Do we trust this?
Hopeful for a big week in Bolivia. If they go ahead and ratfuck Sanchez in Peru like they are clearly planning to (Peruvian prosecutos seek to disqualify leftist candidate), then let's hope the organized masses in that country follow in their neighbor's footsteps. The situations are so similar: popular leftist forced out of power by US-orchestrated fuckery to impose neoliberalism while the working class and indigenous nations retain high levels of organization. Then, CONAIE in Ecuador, also in the exact same situation as their neighbors...
In each of these countries, do we see the following conditions?
To the Marxist it is indisputable that a revolution is impossible without a revolutionary situation; furthermore, it is not every revolutionary situation that leads to revolution. What, generally speaking, are the symptoms of a revolutionary situation? We shall certainly not be mistaken if we indicate the following three major symptoms: (1) when it is impossible for the ruling classes to maintain their rule without any change; when there is a crisis, in one form or another, among the "upper classes", a crisis in the policy of the ruling class, leading to a fissure through which the discontent and indignation of the oppressed classes burst forth. For a revolution to take place, it is usually insufficient for "the lower classes not to want" to live in the old way; it is also necessary that "the upper classes should be unable" to live in the old way; (2) when the suffering and want of the oppressed classes have grown more acute than usual; (3) when, as a consequence of the above causes, there is a considerable increase in the activity of the masses, who uncomplainingly allow themselves to be robbed in "peace time", but, in turbulent times, are drawn both by all the circumstances of the crisis and by the "upper classes" themselves into independent historical action.
Without these objective changes, which are independent of the will, not only of individual groups and parties but even of individual classes, a revolution, as a general rule, is impossible. The totality of all these objective changes is called a revolutionary situation... revolution arises only out of a situation in which the above-mentioned objective changes are accompanied by a subjective change, namely, the ability of the revolutionary class to take revolutionary mass action strong enough to break (or dislocate) the old government, which never, not even in a period of crisis, "falls", if it is not toppled over.
https://xcancel.com/MenchOsint/status/2056097961138962574
⭕️ Hezbollah published a map showing the number of lsraeli military vehicles that were targeted by the fighters in various confrontation areas in southern Lebanon from 17 March, 2026 to 16 April, 2026.
- 48 Merkava Tanks
- 30 Bulldozers
- 35 Various vehicles
First
Death to iSSrahell
