Image is an illustration that I have made to show what each side means when they say that Hormuz is "open" or "closed", as various officials and analysts have created a lot of confusion with their statements, both intentionally and unintentionally.
I'm tentatively going back to the weekly thread format in the hopes that even if/when the conflict resumes, daily comment counts will keep us at or below ~3000 per week. If not, we'll just go back to the 3000 comment threshold being what triggers a new thread being created.
The events of the last two weeks have been the most unintelligible of at least the last four years, and on some days I took one look at the situation and decided to just not even bother and do something else until the next day.
To attempt to summarize:
::: spoiler long summary
Against many people's expectations, including my own, the ceasefire was not immediately scuttled upon its inception despite violations (predominantly against Lebanon), which indicates to me that both the US and Iran wanted a ceasefire more than they wanted to continue firing, at least for two weeks. For both sides, it represented an opportunity to reorganize, rebuild, and restrategize going forward.
The US has continued its rapid flurry of airlifting to and from the Middle East, and while what exactly they have brought and intend to do next is a mystery, airlifting is a very inefficient method of transferring resources en masse, meaning that any kind of massive ground invasion is still many months away (though I still strongly doubt it'll ever happen). Attempting to do more raids like the failed Istafan raid seems like the most likely option, as well as perhaps some disastrous attempts to hold Gulf islands.
Meanwhile, Iran has been excavating the entrances to their missile cities and has rapidly rebuilt bridges and railway lines. While the rate of reconstruction has shocked some observers, people like us who have paid abnormally high attention to the Ukraine War will not be surprised - infrastructure is very difficult to take out for any meaningful length of time even when it's not purposefully decentralized. It also seems extremely likely that Iran has continued to receive shipments of resources and weapons from Russia and China, though what exactly is being supplied is not concretely known.
Iran sent a highly qualified team to Pakistan to negotiate, and the US sent, among others, Vice President Vance too. After a marathon ~20 hour session, no deal was struck, and both sides left Pakistan (the Iranian team taking many precautions to not get shot down). While the nuclear issue seemed to be the major sticking point, it is very difficult to see the US - and Trump in particular - formally agreeing to a tollbooth in Hormuz or the retreat from their Middle Eastern bases even if they have already effectively retreated from most of them.
These negotiations took place in an environment of constant violations of the ceasefire on the Lebanon front. Iran initially tied their attendance of talks to a total cessation of conflict in Lebanon, though ultimately decided to go to Islamabad without a de facto ceasefire but with some sort of guarantee that we'll go tell Netanyahu to stop firing for a while. A few days after the negotiations failed, a more comprehensive ceasefire was actually achieved in Lebanon. It's still a Zionist Ceasefire ("you cease fire, we keep attacking"), and the Zionists committed several massive civilian atrocities just before the ceasefire began. After the ceasefire began, violations have, to my knowledge, been remarkably few up to the time of me writing this.
Shortly after the failure of negotiations, the US began their own blockade of Iran's ports. As the US Navy cannot get within a few hundred miles of even the entrance of the Strait of Hormuz, the blockade is taking place at some line in the Sea of Oman, where Iranian ships will be intercepted. The confusion caused by this situation has been incredible, with a few days of people tracking Iranian tankers closely, concluding that if they had crossed the Strait of Hormuz, they had successfully ran the blockade (they had not). After about a week of this de jure blockade, it was indeed confirmed to be real when the US captured its first Iranian oil tanker. This prompted Iran to fully close the Strait of Hormuz (see the megathread image), and there are reports of, as always, at best questionable veracity that in response to the US's blockade of their blockade, Iran possibly intends to 1) totally blockade Gulf State ports in the Persian Gulf of any kind, not just oil, and/or 2) talk to their ally Ansarallah and have them blockade the Red Sea (and they seem keen to do so in support of the Resistance).
Additionally, Iran has made the end of the US blockade the precondition to enter into new negotiations. The short term and even medium term effect of the US blockade will be minimal - China has a colossal strategic petroleum reserve which will last them several months even with their economy at full steam even assuming all Middle Eastern imports are cut off overnight, and Iran itself is not wholly reliant on oil exports for basic survival like other oil states (though it'll certainly hurt the economy if prolonged). There are also certain ways that the blockade can be subverted, like potentially some advanced shadow fleet tactics with the cooperation of allied countries, or, in the long term, the construction of overland oil transportation routes (a significant railway route was constructed in the last few years between Iran and China).
:::
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
::: spoiler The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
:::
::: spoiler Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
:::
https://archive.ph/sKwnI
US Quietly Moves THAAD and Patriot Batteries in Jordan as Chinese Satellites Expose Every Step During Iran Ceasefire
Chinese commercial satellite imagery has exposed the United States quietly relocating THAAD and Patriot missile-defence batteries across Jordan during the fragile US-Iran ceasefire, revealing how Washington, Tehran and Beijing are now competing simultaneously across missile warfare, surveillance and space-enabled intelligence.
::: spoiler more
The United States has quietly used the current US-Iran ceasefire to reposition critical THAAD and Patriot missile defence batteries across Jordan, immediately transforming a temporary operational pause into a wider contest over regional survivability. High-definition Chinese satellite imagery released on April 19 has exposed the new American deployments, demonstrating that even during a fragile ceasefire, large missile defence systems remain visible to increasingly sophisticated foreign surveillance networks. The redeployment carries consequences extending far beyond Jordan because it reveals how the United States, Iran, and China are now competing simultaneously across missile warfare, operational concealment, and space-enabled intelligence collection. The movement followed Iranian strikes during March that damaged the previous THAAD deployment near Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, forcing Washington to reconsider whether its earlier defensive layout remained operationally viable. The American battery originally entered Jordan during late January, reflecting growing concern that Iranian ballistic missiles and armed drones could threaten US facilities throughout the Levant and Gulf.
The current two-week ceasefire, announced on April 8 and brokered by Pakistan, provided the first sufficiently low-risk opportunity for the Pentagon to move sensitive launchers, radars, generators, and supporting logistics equipment. Chinese commercial imagery companies rapidly identified the new deployment areas, publishing annotated photographs showing dispersed launchers, support vehicles, radar arrays, and freshly prepared defensive positions near existing Jordanian military facilities. The released images appeared to show both THAAD launchers linked with AN/TPY-2 radar components and Patriot batteries operating alongside AN/MPQ-65 engagement radars and supporting command vehicles. The resulting public disclosure has intensified concern inside Western defence circles because the imagery emerged from commercial Chinese providers rather than Beijing’s more capable classified military reconnaissance architecture. No American official has publicly confirmed or denied the redeployment, yet the visual evidence corresponds closely with earlier base layouts, known radar signatures, previous launcher configurations, and established American force posture patterns. The exposure of the new Jordanian sites also indicates that future American missile defence deployments across the Middle East may require far greater mobility, deception, camouflage, and electronic concealment than previously considered necessary. For Washington, the Jordan episode has therefore become more than a regional force-protection issue because it demonstrates that every future crisis will unfold beneath continuous Chinese overhead observation.
Ceasefire Used to Repair a Damaged Defensive Shield
The United States appears to have treated the ceasefire primarily as an operational breathing space, allowing damaged missile defence infrastructure inside Jordan to be repaired, replaced, dispersed, and reintroduced without immediate attack. Iranian retaliation during early March reportedly struck the original THAAD site, leaving visible debris, burn marks, and apparent damage surrounding the battery’s principal radar installation. That earlier deployment had been concentrated around Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, where the THAAD system protected American aircraft, logistics hubs, and command facilities supporting operations throughout the broader Middle East. Because THAAD relies heavily upon its AN/TPY-2 radar, any successful strike against that component can significantly degrade the entire battery’s detection, tracking, and interception effectiveness.
...
New Positions Suggest a Shift Toward Dispersed Survivability
The newly visible deployment areas appear deliberately selected to reduce vulnerability against ballistic missiles, armed drones, cruise missiles, and loitering munitions approaching from several directions simultaneously. Rather than returning the systems to their previous, easily identifiable locations, American forces appear to have positioned launchers closer to terrain features and existing infrastructure. The fresh layout also seems more widely dispersed, making it harder for Iranian planners to destroy the entire defensive architecture through a single coordinated strike package. Several launchers appear separated from their associated radar systems, indicating an effort to complicate enemy targeting and reduce the likelihood of simultaneous catastrophic losses.
this also shows the problem with dispersal - there's a reason those launchers come together in a package with the radar systems, separate them and while they may be more survivable, they'll also be less effective
...
Chinese Satellite Imagery Has Exposed a New Battlefield Reality
The Chinese imagery that exposed the redeployment reportedly originated from commercial providers using sub-meter resolution optical satellites supported by artificial intelligence-based analytical software. Those systems can automatically identify launchers, radar arrays, logistics vehicles, roads, prepared sites, and camouflage patterns before rapidly distributing annotated products across social media platforms. The imagery released publicly on April 19 reportedly came from firms associated with MizarVision, which draws upon commercial satellite constellations and automated geospatial interpretation tools. Even those publicly available systems are not considered China’s most advanced overhead surveillance assets, making the episode strategically significant far beyond Jordan. China’s classified military reconnaissance network reportedly offers far greater revisit rates, higher resolution, improved persistence, and substantially stronger all-weather observation capability through combined optical and radar satellites. That means large missile defence systems such as THAAD and Patriot can increasingly be tracked almost continuously, even when deployed rapidly during periods of crisis. The Jordan redeployment therefore illustrates how former assumptions about operational secrecy are rapidly becoming obsolete under modern commercial and military satellite surveillance. American forces may still conceal smaller mobile systems, yet large fixed assets now appear increasingly vulnerable to immediate discovery, analysis, and public dissemination.
Beijing Gains Strategic Leverage Without Direct Involvement
China’s decision to allow the imagery to circulate publicly adds a strategic signalling dimension extending well beyond the immediate question of American missile defence positioning. By exposing the redeployment during a ceasefire, Beijing effectively demonstrated that it can observe, interpret, and publicise sensitive American military activity almost in real time. That capability provides China with indirect leverage because it allows Beijing to influence regional perceptions without deploying forces or issuing direct political threats. The imagery also strengthens China’s narrative that the United States can no longer assume information dominance across the Middle East or Indo-Pacific. For regional states watching the confrontation, the satellite disclosures reinforce perceptions that China now possesses a rapidly expanding intelligence and reconnaissance advantage. Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other American security partners may therefore begin questioning whether future US deployments can remain concealed during a prolonged conflict. The episode also creates potential deterrence complications because visible missile defence positions can become easier targets for adversaries planning future precision strikes. China therefore gains strategic value from merely revealing the deployments, even without participating directly in the ongoing confrontation between Washington and Tehran.
Fragile Ceasefire Masks Continued Preparations for Future Conflict
The American redeployment strongly suggests that Washington does not believe the current ceasefire will produce a lasting reduction in regional military tensions. Instead, the repositioning indicates that US commanders expect hostilities could resume quickly if negotiations collapse over Lebanon, the Strait of Hormuz, or additional Iranian missile activity. The movement of THAAD and Patriot systems into less exposed locations therefore represents a hedge against renewed conflict rather than preparation for withdrawal.
...
The redeployment also suggests that Washington is preparing for future attacks specifically targeting radar systems, launch vehicles, and support infrastructure rather than only personnel. The most important lesson from the episode is therefore not merely that THAAD and Patriot moved inside Jordan, but that every future movement may now occur under nearly total overhead visibility.
...
:::
Guardian update - Iranian state TV is reporting that no Iranian delegation has yet departed for Pakistan to attend peace talks with the US. It is not clear yet if they will attend the talks today despite pressure from mediators including Pakistan to do so. The country’s state broadcaster wrote in a post on Telegram that “no delegation from Iran has travelled to Islamabad, neither a primary nor a secondary, neither initial nor follow-up.”
Axios, meanwhile, is reporting that the US vice-president JD Vance is due to leave for Islamabad by Tuesday morning for talks with Iran, a day before the ceasefire expires. Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump’s special envoy who often acts like a de facto secretary of state, and Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law and adviser, are also expected to travel to the Pakistani capital for the talks.
Iran has been stalling because of possible pressure from the Revolutionary Guards on the negotiators to adopt a firmer line and insist there cannot be diplomacy while the US is blockading the strait of Hormuz, according to the Axios report. Iran holds a deep mistrust of the US as it has been attacked before during previous negotiations.
Why do I even bother lmao
[2026-04-21] @PressTV: 🔴 Despite reports in the American media, no Iranian delegation has entered Pakistan yet.
[2026-04-21] Al-Manar – Preliminary Iranian delegation arrives in Islamabad as US delegation is already present: Pakistani diplomatic source
I think this is the most normalbrained way to format headline-only blurb articles? 🤔
From yesterday (20th): although Larry Johnson has not watched Medhurst's video yet, he has apparently heard of it. Johnson says he disagrees with the idea that this war will strengthen the petrodollar. (More bluntly, he says "Dude, what are you smoking.")
It's not exactly a rebuttal (just a flippant aside), but it's at least interesting that, at some point, when he heard "A journalist has argued that this war could actually strengthen the petrodollar," apparently no scenario popped into his head that he thought was credible.
Timestamp is 33:58 https://inv.nadeko.net/watch?v=aUIRaWUtgTA
I think Johnson is not impressed with US threats to blockade shipping at a distance, at least at this stage. Last week on Diesen's show he said the US needs to use helicopters to interdict ships, because the US lacks the political ability to threaten to sink cargo ships at sea, and therefore the ships would call their bluff. If that premise holds, it raises the issue that a carrier with helicopters can only cover so much area at sea, and then there are issues on top of that like maintenance strain on the aircraft, etc.
Timestamp is 3:08 https://inv.nadeko.net/watch?v=78osgairBb4
I guess, by that reasoning, the central question becomes, would the US open fire on cargo ships belonging to third parties? And if so, what would happen?
And if so, what would happen?
Russia and China can always threaten to sink ships headed for US ports with their subs. And in a race between US subs sinking tankers and Russian/Chinese subs sinking tankers, the US will lose because Russia and China have more subs, are able to build subs faster, and are able to replace tankers faster as well.
Medhurst's video and tweets imply this (he's under heavy surveillance by the British state who thinks he's a member of Hamas despite being a Syrian-British Christian so he understandably can't just say "Russia and China should start sinking ships lol"). The counterplay is for the AoR to go after US-owned oil and gas refineries and for Russia and China to go after ships headed for US ports. His video and subsequent tweets stress that the way out is a military solution, not a diplomatic or economic one.
https://xcancel.com/richimedhurst/status/2043525832950346213
https://xcancel.com/richimedhurst/status/2044339723527725331
For me it's a question of timing -- Medhurst's thesis is that US piracy could cause durable capital flight to the US. That requires a sufficiently long period of time in which the US has the energy market cornered. But a symmetrical blockade by both sides would not corner the market for anyone. So there would have to be an initial period of asymmetry, and that initial period would have to be long enough to trigger capital flight -- presumably, long enough for industries to collapse or atrophy (is that wrong?). Sincere non-rhetorical question, is this plausible?
That guy is CIA. I don't care what he thinks on a matter like this where his and the agencies interest are to downplay any intelligent plans for imperialism now and into the future. And not the deep part of the CIA either. Lots of libs and centrists in the CIA who only see the above board parts not the permanent state part which would be responsible for this kind of planning. Heck a lot of that might be outsourced to private companies and think tanks these days.
As to lacking the ability. I really doubt civilians sailors are going to defy the US. I just don't see it happening given who those crews are. Maybe China could pull an emergency lever and get some amount of sailors (remember you can't just create experienced sailors out of party cadres, it takes training, education, etc to be crew on these ships) who are disciplined but I'm not sure that's a short time viable thing.
Anyways we're talking the hospital bombing US, the in cahoots with child murdering zionazis USA. No one serious doubts their ability to commit civilian murders when needed to advance their interests and sometimes even when not.
Absurd statement tbh. US has to only make it impossible for ships to be insured and act against the US blockade. They have a lot of levers they can lean on to ensure all western insurance carriers drop the entire shipping company if a single one of their ships defies the US and that's game over for any legit company. Yeah you have Russian "shadow fleet" types but how many really are there available to operate down there considering they're mostly busy ferrying Russian oil already.
I really doubt civilians sailors are going to defy the US
This already happened with the Bella 1 tanker around Venezuela. Now, how many sailors would be willing to do that is a different question. But at a certain point, thing could well get economically desperate enough that more and more ships start going for it - plenty of migrants to the US die en-route in the Central American jungle or get captured and brutalized by ICE once in the US, but migration continues, because people are desperate. Brutality can be an effective tool to deter people sometimes, but not as often as the ghouls implementing it would like to think, as history has shown on numerous occasions.
Anyways we're talking the hospital bombing US, the in cahoots with child murdering zionazis USA. No one serious doubts their ability to commit civilian murders when needed to advance their interests and sometimes even when not.
The problem isn't with the morality of murdering sailors, but with the economic effect of openly attacking international shipping. The global markets are amoral and don't give a shit about children being murdered - but they do give a shit about profits, and the entire industry functions on the principle of sailing international waters being safe - if companies have to start pricing in "we might get shot at by the US Navy", that's obviously going to have pretty chilling effects.
The Trump administration has clearly shown itself to be a very business-conscious one, to the point of timing announcements around the market. But then again, they did have a destroyer disable a ship by shooting its engine compartment (which gets around the helicopter boarding troubles), so I guess maybe they just don't give a shit. But collapsing international shipping is hardly a win for the US empire.
They have a lot of levers they can lean on to ensure all western insurance carriers drop the entire shipping company if a single one of their ships defies the US and that's game over for any legit company. Yeah you have Russian "shadow fleet" types but how many really are there available to operate down there considering they're mostly busy ferrying Russian oil already.
The Russian shadow fleet's size is difficult to estimate, on account of the shadow part, but it seems to be pretty big and growing. And it's not exactly even "Russian" at this point - it's just an entire parallel shipping industry, involving ships from a variety of countries. Extending sanctions further and further is just going to drive more and more ships into this parallel system - and this is also an industry known for getting up to lots of shady shit, which is what all the "shadow fleet" drama is all about in the first place.
Dark fleet update: a “Parallel Fleet” is developing, and there is no way to reverse it.
Shipping splits into ‘parallel universes’ as global trade continues to decouple
The US behaving like this is only going to encourage more and more growth of this parallel shipping system. The US doesn't have to resources to run a blockade on the entire ocean - they've got all 3 currently active carrier groups either dedicated to just this effort (although the Bush is still on the way), and one of those (the Ford) really shouldn't be active right now given how far extended its deployment has been. There's 11 destroyers in the region, with more presumably on the way with the Bush - well, the US has 78 total destroyers, but a bunch of those are in maintenance at any given point, so let's say around there's 55-ish active ones - that's a fifth of the active destroyer fleet, with more to come, just in this one location.
And again, forcing the development of an entire parallel shipping system outside of your control is difficult to interpret as a win for the empire.
his and the agencies interest are to downplay any intelligent plans for imperialism now and into the future. And not the deep part of the CIA either. Lots of libs and centrists in the CIA who only see the above board parts not the permanent state part which would be responsible for this kind of planning
This pattern of American-5D-chessism is really starting to get pretty weird. Certainly, we shouldn't underestimate the empire and dismiss them as washed - clearly they can still wield some degree of military might and coercive power - but the repeated insistence that their obviously idiotic behavior must totally be part of some kayfabe scheme to pretend to be a decaying flailing empire, while the real intelligent deep state is totally still running long-term plans underneath, I do not see as being backed up by any evidence, and I feel is also severely ignorant of how large organizations actually work, assigning a level of coherence to them that simply doesn't exist. There are multitudes of different factions working plans of their own, and the Trump admin's gutting of the DoD and increasing staffing with private equity ghouls is hardly helping the competent ones.
Larry Johncharlie Kirkiakou has a long and storied career of misdirection that thankfully for him no Amerikkkan could ever remember
Is this a bit or is there some lore on Larry Johnson
Didn't a ship already defy the US on its way to Venezuela, albeit unsuccessfully? I kinda missed that story.
I agree that the US is infinitely willing to sink infinitely many civilian cargo ships. What I'm wondering is, if they started sinking 3rd party cargo ships, e.g., Chinese ships, what retaliation would they face, how high up the escalation ladder would that be and how long could they remain at that level of the ladder.
As for Larry Johnson, I know the adage is that there are no ex-CIA, but he seems to be ex-CIA. From what I've seen, his takes tend to align with other commentators in the anti-US geopolitics circuit. Unless he's nefariously steering them, I think he's just an analyst who saw enough to become bitter. Or I'm too credulous.
I agree that the US is infinitely willing to sink infinitely many civilian cargo ships. What I'm wondering is, if they started sinking 3rd party cargo ships, e.g., Chinese ships, what retaliation would they face, how high up the escalation ladder would that be and how long could they remain at that level of the ladder.
It really depends if you think China will stick their neck out for Iran. I tend to doubt it. They'd basically have to go to war with the US to stop them and right now the US has an absolute advantage and would inflict punishing losses on Chinese ships that far away from home. To say nothing of the economic ramifications for China given how export heavy they still are and how huge the US is as a customer. And beyond being a customer the pains they can inflict on China's abilities to trade if things get to a breaking point and they no longer care about Chinese retaliation.
It's certainly possible China does something like armed escorts and the US refuses to go to war over it and lets Chinese ships pass but they'd then hunt everyone else's still which would still more or less achieve their aims in this regard. So it doesn't really matter what China does short of declaring war on the US to open the strait for everyone. China will take getting its own oil and grumble about not being able to send cargo to Iran and that'll be the end of it.
he seems to be ex-CIA. From what I've seen, his takes tend to align with other commentators in the anti-US geopolitics circuit.
Meaningless. Limited hang-out or simply following the dollar signs to parrot things. The US has multiple times reorganized the world and its financial systems for its own benefit in the past 100 years. If he is just a parrot singing doom and gloom because it sells of course he'd dismiss this because he's selling doom for the US. It may also be he's myopic in this regard, his prejudices built up over grudges over what he considers bad strategies and refuses to concede anything to his opponents.
Just to play devil's advocate, possibly foolishly -- If the US breaks the taboo on sinking or damaging cargo ships, can't anyone with a fleet of nuclear subs do the same? As Boise_Idaho mentioned, Russia and China combined have quite a few more subs than the US, and greater industrial capacity to replace cargo ships and build more subs as needed. Russia has demonstrated willingness to take military initiative when cornered, and China is building up its military at breakneck speed in apparent anticipation of war. Also, China may depend on US consumers but doesn't the US likewise depend on Chinese producers?
Maybe I'm just logical enough to be annoying but I don't really grasp the situation, if so I apologize lol
Well, first off, it's fine for me to WMG post because this is a space OSINT guy who is fun. The "completely destroyed" thing seems baseless though as the drones usually hit fuel tanks & shit that isn't hard to repair. The overall trend of energy attacks well beyond Russia isn't something to ignore tho
[2026-04-21] @StarboySAR: Oops... Somebody is blowing up energy infrastructure worldwide — purely coincidentally — the targets happen to be exactly the states building non-dollar partnerships with China, Russia and the Global South
@FinanceLancelot: A massive fire has broken out at one of the largest oil refineries in India. 🇮🇳
(4 videos I'm too lazy to embed)
Russia's Tuapse Oil Refinery has been completely destroyed by Ukraine (American) drones
Probably nothing...
https://xcancel.com/FinanceLancelot/status/2044801493321109970#m
tbf, there is also a possible occam's razor explanation of there just being an increase in industrial accidents due to an increase in workload - oil refineries generally don't run at full utilization (https://www.afpm.org/newsroom/blog/refinery-utilization-101-other-half-capacity-story), but it could be that they're being made to do so now due to the desperate oil supply situation, which would predictably lead to accidents due to workers being overworked and maintenance being delayed
similarly with all the accidents among Western military production facilities, while they could be the result of a Russian sabotage campaign against the industry supplying Ukraine, it's also perfectly possible that the companies making workers come in for extra shifts in order to scale up production is leading to exhausted workers making more mistakes, a well-observed phenomenon (https://www.osha.gov/worker-fatigue/hazards)
The overall chaos in the supply chain is throwing a lot of pressure into unusual areas so I don't think that's more far out than CIA sabotage campaign. Aside from willpower I don't think anyone in Russia has the means to speculate on a global energy terrorism campaign (which is what these people are vagueposting their way into assuming)
Just gonna bump the list from the 3rd quote, it's really not that many. But without the intrigue nobody would be interested ;^)
How often are such events normally? I never tracked. Is this signal or noise and how to determine?
It is surprisingly hard to put together so I wanted to ask around! I only know aboht optjmizing feedstocks under good conditions bruh
Peru's primary election won't be counted fully until next month 😩
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/peru-reviews-disputed-election-ballots-with-final-result-likely-stalled-until-2026-04-20/
New NASA study estimates that Artemis EVA suits will not be ready for demonstration until 2031, with their potential use in a moon landing being even later. The lunar suits were originally scheduled for completion in 2025.
?????
I don't understand why this is a sticking point or why it's so long. They already have suits that go outside on the space station?
They do have the ISS EVA suits, but:
- they are based on 1980s technology that can no longer be reproduced. They're already experiencing shortages that affect station operations
- they are not made for the lunar environment, just for floating in the space. I believe they have really poor range of motion in the legs and hips for example, I also think they would be poorly protected against the very nefarious lunar regolith
they are based on 1980s technology that can no longer be reproduced
:warhammer-40k:
it's really great how it doesn't even take us going through a massive interstellar apocalyptic civil war to end up like this, just a couple of decades of a slowdown in development in certain areas, not even an outright stop, and a whole bunch of shit becomes lostech
China will be in alpha centauri before the US lands on the moon again.
China should do that thing in races between runners and people who are unfit where the runner would purposefully sandbag and trail ever so slightly behind the unfit person so the unfit person thinks they stand a chance and completely destroy their body in the process through the false hope that they could actually beat the runner.
Nobody is going to Alpha Centauri lol. The moon missions are stupid, regardless of who's doing them.
Manned space flight is a moronic and wasteful pursuit
Nobody is going to Alpha Centauri lol
I don't think mister piss was being serious but was using exaggeration.
You never know, space brainworms are real.
While China's space program has been less wasteful than the USA's it's still largely dickmeasuring and full of dreams of exploitation. Like getting the water on the moon first to kick off asteroid harvesting is funny from the angle of owning the usa who refused to sign a treaty making the moon common heritage of humankind, but it's still robbing the rest of everyone else.
If someone is going to start mining asteroids I'd rather it be the socialist state that thrives on equal trade rather than the orphan annihilator run by ghouls
If humankind is going to have a future that doesn't involve cooking the earth, then manned spaceflight isn't just a necessity but an obligation
The socialist utopia if it's ever going to be found, will be realized up there
Actual, real deal space colonization would 100% require communism to have already won down here on earth, then probably several hundred years of rapid technological advancement before it becomes any sort of practical. We will never colonize space while a profit motive exists, it's too outrageously expensive compared to the reward for any government or private entity to currently justify.
My pet theory is that capitalism is the great filter and it's why no alien civilization has any sort of visible presence that we can detect. They take themselves out due to their own greed before they can travel past their planets.
It's not an either or thing, space development even under capitalist polities leads to technical developments immensely useful to socialists looking for alternatives in countless fields and applications
Obviously we'd all prefer communists lead the charge, but that hasn't been possible for the last 50 years, except now China is making it possible and are we really gonna sit here like luddites and scoff at Chinese space development and go "Yeah they're definitely wasting their time, NO useful developments have EVER emerged as a result of space development, the Soviets were wasting their time, they should've let the US win the space race harder" like really?
Also "several hundred years" is just mindless conservatism, who in the 1930s besides the futurists could've predicted the space race or the moon landings? Turns out the futurists were being conservative in their expectations, and the science skeptics were just downright wrong
Neoliberals and market fundamentalists may take several hundred years, but that's not an appropriate expectation for any communist to hold, especially in light of the unfolding climate catastrophe
Space colonisation as some way to reach a promised utopia is just the second coming for geeks.
Science fiction stories are fun but they're just stories. Earth is immensely suited to supporting human life and the overwhelming majority of it is completely inhospitable, like if you pick a random volume of earth more than likely you would rapidly die there. Realistically we scratch out a living on a tiny film that covers sometimes like 30% of the total surface area.
Here we have mild temperatures, radiation shielding, a large atmosphere, a thriving biosphere (admittedly declining currently), gravity, abundant water, fuel, sunlight, soil that isn't made of knives or chemicals that probably interfere with human sexual maturity (moon and Mars respectively).
If you've ever managed any sort of artificial environment (aquarium, terrarium, hydroponics etc) you'll have an appreciation of how suddenly these fail and how much management they require even with all of the earth sheltering and supporting it, and cities of people available for help and reasources. If giant artificial farms on earth aren't a particularly plausible way to feed people why would they be easier in space?
If tunnel digging is too expensive and dangerous to build important roads through mountains or underground cities in deserts why would it be easier in space?
We don't even know if humans can carry babies to term in low gravity environments, let alone grow safely.
Space is a fun fantasy but this earth will be the home of us and all other earthlings. It is bountiful almost beyond measure and more than capable of supporting billions of us.
If you want an industrial civilization on earth that doesn't also collapse the biosphere, then space absolutely has to be in play, a cottagcore solar punk communist revolution is not around the corner and its not an either or thing, both developments need to happen simultaneously
Space development by either China or even the haphazard capitalist funded orgs are necessary for the emergence of novel innovations and technical refinement for the space and earth bound technologies that will be needed to negate the climate apocalypse
If you've ever managed any sort of artificial environment (aquarium, terrarium, hydroponics etc) you'll have an appreciation of how suddenly these fail and how much management they require even with all of the earth sheltering and supporting it, and cities of people available for help and reasources. If giant artificial farms on earth aren't a particularly plausible way to feed people why would they be easier in space?
It's almost like solving these technical hurdles in space has massive implications and applications for mass scaled "billions supporting" agriculture here on earth and maybe the overarching reason we would want to move agriculture and industry to space is that so we don't collapse the fucking climate!
The conservatism and luddism that scoffs at these developments like these can quickly morph into climate denialism
technologies that will be needed to negate the climate apocalypse
We already have the technology. This is not an issue
A technology that negates apocalypse has to scale and be realized socially, economically and poltically on a macro global scale
Thanks to the state subsidized efforts of China and its diffusion and transfer of some green tech, CERTAIN elements of the apocalypse have been delayed....while other markers are accelerating, so we're nowhere near negation by way of the mere existence of certain extant tech
This is why I find these reactionary luddite sentiments so contemptible; aside from spitting on the visionary history of socialism it also advances magical thinking in regards to tech, ignoring its difficult maintenance and integration into a world dominated by capitalism
We desperately need more development in every field, particularly space, not less, it's utterly bizarre for a group who considers themselves socialists to entertain reductionist and reactionary takes like the kind displayed in this thread
I get it, the imperialist Americans went around the moon, ouch oof
You know what China should do? They should land on the moon, build a fuckin base and give the world more critical novel innovations from the results
Space is our vision, not the capitalists
Space exploration certainly has it's place as an engine for technological development but I remain sceptical about it becoming this Deus ex machina that solves our problems as a species.
Earth is perfectly capable of supporting its current population and quite a lot more given our current level of technological development. People going without the material resources they need for a dignified existence is primarily a political and economic problem, not a technical one.
No matter how much we manage to fuck up earth, making it inhabitable for more people than today is going to be orders of magnitude easier than making long-term large scale human settlement in space viable to be.
Earth is perfectly capable of supporting its current population and quite a lot more given our current level of technological development
Why do people keep saying this as if we're not in the middle of a global climate collapse and the Great Holocene Extinction?
Yes in a vacuum conception of earth tens of billions of human beings could stand on the earth's surface and presumably not starve to death
But I would think people who subscribe to a communist view of reality would inherently understand its not simply a matter of physics but a question of politics and social organization
We want and need an industrial civilization with high standards of living, meanwhile the earth is dying; there's a potential synthesis here that is begging the attention of people who claim to subscribe to socialism, and that synthesis is pointing toward the path of least resistance, where the biosphere isn't brushing up against human development, and that path is called space
I get the sense that you are an enthusiast rather than an expert, or even an expert in any related scientific field.
It is easy to make sweeping claims of possibility from a place or pop science but the realities are so much more technical. If you are interested in this stuff then I'd encourage you to check out zach weinersmith's book "a city on mars" which is a very even handed, and to my mind far too optimistic, examination of a small percentage of the barriers to human space colonisation.
It's very easy reading, and a good jumping off point if you want to learn more about any of the potential problems.
We can do cool hydroponics research without building rockets btw, and actually many solutions to earth problems are probably surprisingly low tech. Stuff like bamboo reenforced concrete, or the green circles claiming the sahara are cheap, terrestrial, and humanity transforming innovations just as two examples.
I get the sense that you are an enthusiast rather than an expert, or even an expert in any related scientific field.
You couldn't even immediately clock how closed system technical innovations in space could have applications for hydroponics systems here on earth where the most important issue is environmental pollution potential
Like don't even front
If you are interested in this stuff then I'd encourage you to check out zach weinersmith's book "a city on mars" which is a very even handed
Space development is not confined to idea of colonizing Mars, dispersed and diffused rotational habitats is where the real science is pointing toward and the barriers in that field are primarily economic, which is why communists are obliged to contest this ground and show up the capitalists who are more concerned with marketing and profits than the further development of worldchanging novel innovations
We can do cool hydroponics research without building rockets btw
We also do cool hydroponics research in space and the applications that result have transformed hydroponics multiple times
Stuff like bamboo reenforced concrete, or the green circles claiming the sahara are cheap, terrestrial, and humanity transforming innovations just as two examples.
Again, it's not either or, those innovations are useful but they're not enough to secure the climate or support billions on their own
There's value in human scientists being on-site for space exploration. Robots can only get us so far, especially with transmission time lag. Colonization is certainly pie-in-the-sky fantasy with current technologies but we can do science bases.
Could you be specific? I have done scientific research as a job and it's not obvious to me what robots couldn't do. Research must justify itself, researchers are burdensome on society and in using the resources you have to do something more worthwhile than just play time for elites.
Sometimes satisfying human curiosity is enough, and when things are as cheap as ground based astronomy we can justify it that way but humans in space are staggeringly expensive vs robots. The ISS hasn't really justified itself on scientific grounds for example.
If you want to know if mars ever had life robots can do that, want to search titan's methane waters? Robots. Want to characterise the asteroid belt, maybe investigate the viability of asteroid defenses? Robots.
Robots can't take qualatative experiencial shit down but that's play time.
Research must justify itself, researchers are burdensome on society
What a vile and ignorant statement.
The revolution is happening here on Earth. There's really nothing much up there.
Nothing up there besides an infinity of resources and space, definitely two things that have no application to the development of communism
Also a revolution is decidedly NOT happening on earth at the moment, perhaps a lack of vision among those who advocate for revolution is part of the explanation for why not?
There is an infinity of resources in the same way that there is a staggering amount of iron in the sahara or as much lithium as we could dream of using in the waves that break on the shores of the world.
The presence of material is rarely the issue.
Yes the overarching issue is whether we collapse ecosystems and the climate by mass extracting these materials on earth
Which is why space can be a pretty useful alternative
Personally, Id rather they be spending money on manned space stuff and moon stuff than on weapons and bombs
They're not bound by budgets. They're wasting resources on space flight on top of wasting resources on war.
Unfortunately that's not really how it works. The budget usually comes from other, far more useful places.
The Rossiya Segodnya media group editor-in-chief, Margarita Simonyan, explained why her children are learning Chinese:
Power is no longer concentrated in a single capital or filtered through one political or cultural lens. We are living in a multipolar era again, and have been for some time.
That shift didn't happen overnight and it has accelerated, particularly over the past decade. And that is almost exactly how long my eldest child, Mariana, now 12, has been studying Chinese. Her younger siblings, Bagrat, 11, and Maro, six, followed naturally, virtually since birth. They did not "pick up" the language as a novelty or an extracurricular experiment. On the contrary, they were deliberately grown into it.
In the century now we are in, fluency in Chinese is not merely an advantage. It is a necessity.
https://sputnikglobe.com/20260420/why-my-children-learn-to-speak-chinese-1124013498.html
https://archive.ph/2a4Rg
U.S. Ambassador Threatens Peru After Lima Delays F-16 Fighter Jet Deal
U.S. Ambassador to Peru Bernie Navarro issued a direct threat to the Peruvian government Friday, vowing Washington would use “all available tools” if it deems Lima is negotiating in bad faith over the suspension of a multi-billion-dollar F-16 fighter jet purchase.
::: spoiler more
Navarro, representing the Trump Administration, reacted sharply on the social media platform X after interim President José María Balcázar announced the final decision on the $3.5 billion fleet renewal would be deferred to the next government taking office July 28. Balcázar argued the financial commitment constituted excessive national debt for a transitional administration. “I will use all available tools to protect and promote the prosperity and security of our country,” Navarro posted.
The controversy stems from Peru’s plan to replace its aging fleet of French Mirage 2000 and Russian MIG-29 jets with 24 new aircraft. While Balcázar previously indicated a preference for the U.S.-made F-16 Block 70, he clarified Friday that no contract has been signed and no funds have been disbursed. The cost of the proposed acquisition exceeds the budget originally approved by the Peruvian Parliament. The negotiations, driven by former Prime Minister Ernesto Álvarez and Foreign Minister Hugo de Zela, are part of a broader deepening of U.S.-Peru defense ties. In February, De Zela announced Peru’s designation as a Major Non-NATO Ally, a status conferring specific U.S. military assistance. The bilateral agenda also includes the construction of a $1.5 billion naval base in the port of Callao, to be built by U.S. military personnel and financed by the Peruvian state. Balcázar reiterated that with the presidential transition imminent, a decision of such fiscal magnitude should be left to an administration with a fresh electoral mandate and full democratic legitimacy. :::
If Sánchez wins, they should buy J-10C instead. They’d probably be like half the price, plus the canards look cool.
Peru will probably either just buy from Russia or France. Both General Velasco (1960s - 1970s) and Alberto Fujimori (1990s) bought a bunch of Soviet, Chinese and North Korean equipament, tanks and aircrafts. Velasco had plans to invade Chile to depose Pinochet and restore democracy there so he decided to buy a bunch of soviet equipament since both Peru and the Soviets were socialist states. Fujimori just bought stuff to use against civilians and guerrilas, he even started a war against Ecuador in 1995 to help his reelection plans.
Well what ever they end up buying, it should used be used to depose Nooba and restore democracy in Ecuador.
the Americans actually specifically pulled a bunch of shit to prevent that from happening in Argentina (technically with the JF-17 rather than the J-10, but still a Chinese plane) and getting them to buy F-16s (that were supposed to go to Ukraine originally), https://hexbear.net/post/6148937/6504631
except this kind of scheme is kind of predicated on the Americans actually delivering some fucking planes - eventually, people are just going to start buying Chinese because there's literally nothing else on the market
In terms of ranking by how cool the jets look I'm definitely biased but it 100% goes
- Russia (Have you seen literally anything sukhoi makes)
- China (J-20 my beloved)
- America/EU
- Everyone else
I'm not a jet guy but the Saab JAS 39 Gripen is my favorite.
So much potential I just personally can't get over the engine sticking out the way it does. If it protruded just slightly less or the wings were slightly longer it would be top tier in my book.
Looks like a bug w ovipositor
It looks kinda like it's got a dingleberry
The Su-27 and variants are just so sleek and curvy, definitely goated aesthetically
Yeah I think my love of the sukhoi aesthetic stems from the J-11 really just the best line of jets aesthetically. Although I do enjoy the Su-47 and Su-57 and even the Su-34/32 as well.
My personal favorite right now is the twin seat J-20 variant with the dark livery and white outline. But I gotta say I love a good flanker, especially in their baby blue liveries.
They're not gonna deliver the planes anyway, so this is literally just stealing their money at gunpoint
America, famous for not delaying weapons deals
https://xcancel.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2046204529897611573
The US Government has begun refunding up to $166 billion in tariffs charged under President Trump after the Supreme Court ruled the policy unlawful. Beginning today, businesses can file claims through a new customs system. Over 330,000 importers across 53 million shipments are expected to be eligible. Once approved, refunds plus interest will be paid within 60 to 90 days.
https://xcancel.com/bjack129903/status/2046213608070328823
Businesses that already passed the higher costs to consumers are now getting big refunds with interest, while regular people who paid more get nothing 🤡
At least this means prices will come down
Honestly a really cool and creative way to steal money from the working class and pass it to businesses
Don't say the US is no longer a leader in innovation in some areas
I will never deny that capitalism is endlessly innovative
Americans are ready to vote against this right freaking now if they could.
hey it's me ur bisness send mony plx
I’m tired of winning
What are your predictions for this week?
No matter what happens this week, reality will get worse, and the stock market will go up
It's a crazy long shot, I know, but hear me out: I think israel might break the ceasefire.
Maybe we get a new Trump innovation in dealmaking, like announcing that a deal has been made, but the deal is actually between the US and an "Iranian government in exile" or some shit like that. After that, bombing resumes.
Tim Cook out at Apple?
tim cooked 😔
you have to use this emoji for puns like that
We used to have Steve Jobs, now we have no jobs
Please somebody check in on Billy Beanis
no jobs in general, but with special emphasis on no cooks either
Tim Apple is out, John Apple is in
https://xcancel.com/Coinvo/status/2046136793603694749
UAE has told the U.S. that if they run out of dollars, they'll be forced to trade oil in Chinese yuan.
https://archive.ph/2criR
A new socdem party "Progressive Bulgaria" that was founded only 1 month ago has won the election in Bulgaria yesterday, taking 131 seats of 240. They got 43.5% of the vote, while 2nd place party only got 15%.
I don't really know anything about them but it seems like news.
I wonder if the new government of Bulgaria will actually get an official Instagram profile and maybe buy the @bulgaria handle. I think it's fucking hilarious that somebody cybersquatted an entire nation just to post shit like this:
They're a social conservative socdem party comparable to Slovakia's ruling party.
Due to geography, this new Bulgarian government is potentially more interesting than Slovakia's ideologically similar government. And that is because Bulgaria is not landlocked -- it has a coast. So, for instance, Washington and Brussels can not easily block the country from developing deeper economic and diplomatic ties with BRICS countries.
comparable to Slovakia's ruling party
Okay that fills in pretty much everything for me.
https://xcancel.com/WallStreetApes/status/2046204738681597988
Our roads in America are crumbling. A huge 8 foot by 4 foot hole is found on the I-64 into Illinois. It’s on a bridge, the driver almost hits it. He walks over and looks down the hole, you can see the road way below. He quickly leaves fearing he may fall through. The pavement crumbled, leaving only the steel grid support structure visible. I looked more into this and Illinois Department of Transportation did covered it with a steel plate as a temporary fix until it’s repaired.
https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/2046103711731290112/vid/avc1/1080x1750/M1BKTaqStLpBIaRy.mp4
what do americans even have anymore? no healthcare, no infrastructure, no borgar... guess there's copious amounts of online gambling?
what do americans even have anymore?
Obesity, diabetes, and lead poisoning, statistically
Don't forget microplastics and forever chemicals!
Sometimes I think that my hatred of the American people is too much and then I read Twitter
i'm gonna guess since it's illinois (blue state) the comments blame it on wokeness or smth
Gambling or fraud society.
what do americans even have anymore?
World class protection of the pedophile elite?
A Reddit link was detected in your comment. Here are links to the same location on alternative frontends that protect your privacy.
Israel’s about to invent the back door cope cage - new Hezbollah video
https://t.me/mmirleb/15485
"Tank using demolished civilian houses as armor" is impressively evil even for the IDF
In the same IOF handbook.
I love that they're basically going to have to just build a tank around their tank at this rate
:xzibit-yo-dawg:
More comprehensive report attached in the link
::: spoiler CW SA
More than 70% of displaced Palestinian households in the occupied West Bank identified threats to women and children — particularly sexualised violence — as the decisive reason for leaving their communities, according to a report by the West Bank Protection Consortium, led by the Norwegian Refugee Council.
The report documents how conflict-related sexual violence has become a systematic tool of forced displacement in Area C, operating within a broader coercive environment of settler attacks, movement restrictions, and persistent impunity.
Based on 83 in-depth interviews and 12 focus group discussions across 10 Palestinian communities, it found at least 16 documented cases of sexual violence attributed to Israeli settlers and soldiers — a figure researchers say is significantly higher in reality, as survivors rarely disclose incidents due to stigma, fear of retaliation, and the threat of further targeting by Israeli forces.
Among the documented abuses: ▪️ Settlers attempting to sexually assault a blindfolded man with a broomstick in Wadi al-Seeq, with perpetrators circulating images of the abuse ▪️ A woman subjected to a full-body naked inspection by female Israeli soldiers, with derogatory comments and touching of intimate areas ▪️ Settlers walking naked between Bedouin shelters before a community fled overnight ▪️removed threats made while settlers stalked women walking to latrines ▪️ Drones hovering outside bedroom windows and cameras directed at beds
Key findings on the consequences of displacement: ▪️ 84% of households experienced settler violence alongside systemic coercive pressures ▪️ 87% of women who experienced forcible transfer lost all sources of income ▪️ 90% of women reported increased psychological stress and trauma ▪️ 40% of affected children lost access to education ▪️ 92% of displaced households lost access to grazing and agricultural land
Since January 2023, more than 5,600 Palestinians including 2,600 children have been displaced across 107 communities. In the first three months of 2026 alone, 1,697 Palestinians were displaced — already surpassing all of 2025. Settler attacks last year reached their highest recorded level since OCHA began monitoring in 2006. :::
It goes without saying about settlers that every accusation, a confession.
Fuck em
Makes sense, no reason to talk to someone who already broke their agreements and are actively attacking you
Exactly, why go through the charade of "negotiating" with someone who never negotiates in good faith let alone someone who thinks "ceasefire" means only one side stops shooting
Even if the USA were not actively committing piracy and war crimes, or killed off the previous leader; no self respecting government would want to negotiate with a country whose leader acts like a demented clown each hour
Palantir's fascist manifesto below, worth reading if only to know one's enemy
::: spoiler spoiler Because we get asked a lot.
The Technological Republic, in brief.
-
Silicon Valley owes a moral debt to the country that made its rise possible. The engineering elite of Silicon Valley has an affirmative obligation to participate in the defense of the nation.
-
We must rebel against the tyranny of the apps. Is the iPhone our greatest creative if not crowning achievement as a civilization? The object has changed our lives, but it may also now be limiting and constraining our sense of the possible.
-
Free email is not enough. The decadence of a culture or civilization, and indeed its ruling class, will be forgiven only if that culture is capable of delivering economic growth and security for the public.
-
The limits of soft power, of soaring rhetoric alone, have been exposed. The ability of free and democratic societies to prevail requires something more than moral appeal. It requires hard power, and hard power in this century will be built on software.
-
The question is not whether A.I. weapons will be built; it is who will build them and for what purpose. Our adversaries will not pause to indulge in theatrical debates about the merits of developing technologies with critical military and national security applications. They will proceed.
-
National service should be a universal duty. We should, as a society, seriously consider moving away from an all-volunteer force and only fight the next war if everyone shares in the risk and the cost.
-
If a U.S. Marine asks for a better rifle, we should build it; and the same goes for software. We should as a country be capable of continuing a debate about the appropriateness of military action abroad while remaining unflinching in our commitment to those we have asked to step into harm’s way.
-
Public servants need not be our priests. Any business that compensated its employees in the way that the federal government compensates public servants would struggle to survive.
-
We should show far more grace towards those who have subjected themselves to public life. The eradication of any space for forgiveness—a jettisoning of any tolerance for the complexities and contradictions of the human psyche—may leave us with a cast of characters at the helm we will grow to regret.
-
The psychologization of modern politics is leading us astray. Those who look to the political arena to nourish their soul and sense of self, who rely too heavily on their internal life finding expression in people they may never meet, will be left disappointed.
-
Our society has grown too eager to hasten, and is often gleeful at, the demise of its enemies. The vanquishing of an opponent is a moment to pause, not rejoice.
-
The atomic age is ending. One age of deterrence, the atomic age, is ending, and a new era of deterrence built on A.I. is set to begin.
-
No other country in the history of the world has advanced progressive values more than this one. The United States is far from perfect. But it is easy to forget how much more opportunity exists in this country for those who are not hereditary elites than in any other nation on the planet.
-
American power has made possible an extraordinarily long peace. Too many have forgotten or perhaps take for granted that nearly a century of some version of peace has prevailed in the world without a great power military conflict. At least three generations — billions of people and their children and now grandchildren — have never known a world war.
-
The postwar neutering of Germany and Japan must be undone. The defanging of Germany was an overcorrection for which Europe is now paying a heavy price. A similar and highly theatrical commitment to Japanese pacifism will, if maintained, also threaten to shift the balance of power in Asia.
-
We should applaud those who attempt to build where the market has failed to act. The culture almost snickers at Musk’s interest in grand narrative, as if billionaires ought to simply stay in their lane of enriching themselves . . . . Any curiosity or genuine interest in the value of what he has created is essentially dismissed, or perhaps lurks from beneath a thinly veiled scorn.
It continues... :::
Arnaud bertrand on Palantir's fascist manifesto, worth reading because he is actually thoughtful
::: spoiler spoiler If governments were actually doing their job, this Palantir document 👇 wouldn't be a manifesto they proudly boast about, but a clear sign of the urgent need to purge its software from the public institutions it has infiltrated.
What are they saying, essentially?
They basically promote a clash of civilization worldview in which there exists a "they" - the supposed enemies of Western civilization, whose cultures the document codes as inferior - and a "we" who must stop indulging in decadent restraint and invest massively in AI weapons and defense software (which conveniently makes Palantir's product catalog the civilizational cure).
Look at point 4 for instance. They write that "the limits of soft power, of soaring rhetoric alone, have been exposed. The ability of free and democratic societies to prevail requires something more than moral appeal. It requires hard power, and hard power in this century will be built on software."
It all rests on a pretty massive assumption: that coexistence is impossible. Why would "free and democratic societies" (by which they obviously mean Western-style liberal-democracies) need to "prevail"? Why can't they simply coexist with other civilizations or political systems out there?
Nowhere in the document do they defend this assumption: it's simply asserted as the starting condition of the argument.
But it's the entire ballgame: if civilizations and political systems can coexist - as they largely have, imperfectly but recognizably, throughout history - then the entire case they make in the document evaporates.
In fact one can argue that, studying history, the big problem was not that civilizations couldn't coexist: it was that, from time to time, one of them decided that others were inferior, threatening, or standing in the way of its rightful expansion - and acted accordingly.
So many catastrophes and so much human suffering in history trace back not to the fact of plural civilizations, but to one of them deciding it could no longer tolerate the others.
The problem, in other words, has almost always been exactly the worldview Palantir is now selling. Their manifesto isn't warning against the cause of some of the worst periods in history: it's arguing for reviving them!
Or take point 15: they explicitly call for the re-armament of Germany and Japan, and an end to "Japanese pacifism". Basically undoing one of the foundational settlements of the post-WW2 order.
I mean, think about the insanity of this for a second: a private company - unelected, answerable only to its shareholders - is casually proposing to overturn the security architecture of two continents. A settlement that took a world war, and tens of millions of dead to establish.
Why do they propose this? There is obviously a commercial motivation: a remilitarized Germany and Japan are massive new defense-software markets.
But the more troubling answer is that point 15 fits into the ideological project the rest of the manifesto lays out - a civilizational contest requires a consolidated Western bloc, and pacifist members are a liability in such a contest.
So taking a step back we now have what's the most influential defense-software company in the world, with its code deeply embedded in all the machinery of Western states - intelligence agencies, militaries, police forces, welfare systems, border controls - openly outing itself as an ideological project.
They're effectively saying "our tools aren't meant to serve your foreign policy. They're meant to enforce ours."
Because, worryingly, that's what they CAN do. Palantir software is all about basically telling states: "these are your threats, these are the people and groups to watch, these are the patterns that matter, these are the targets that warrant action."
For instance the DGSI - the French intelligence services - use Palantir (see: x.com/RnaudBertrand/…): do you honestly think the software is warning them about, say, the NSA tapping the phones of French government officials? About the weaponization of US extraterritorial law against French companies? Did it warn them about the AUKUS ambush that cost France a sixty-billion-euro submarine contract? Obviously not.
And that's exactly what the manifesto is saying. They've positioned themselves as advocates of Western civilizational unity, so their software can't undermine it. The ideological position and the product roadmap have to align, or the whole project falls apart.
This makes their software not only deeply dangerous for the world as a whole but also, almost by definition, for any country using it. When it comes to your security as a state, it is primordial you base yourself on truth as opposed to ideology. The entire point of an intelligence agency is to tell its government what is true, not what your so-called "allies'" defense contractors would like you to see.
A state that outsources its threat assessment to a company with an explicit ideological agenda is not gathering intelligence, it is essentially subscribing to propaganda.
The conclusion couldn't be more obvious. Every government still running Palantir software in its intelligence, security, or public-service infrastructure needs to start ripping it out, now! Lest they want to be embarked on the delusional and deeply destructive clash-of-civilizations crusade Palantir has now openly committed itself to. :::
- American power has made possible an extraordinarily long peace.
I guess it’s peaceful if you ignore all the wars and genocide
- The postwar neutering of Germany and Japan must be undone.
- The postwar neutering of Germany and Japan must be undone.
"We need to throw Japanese cannon fodder at China and German cannon fodder against Russia."
They wrote it in such a vague and euphemistic way, too, like they are deliberately discouraging critical thought and trying to speak directly to the fascist subconscious of the liberal reader.
It's the style of AI writing, all demagogy and motherhood statements
Yeah I think it's AI slop. But based on all the shit that the fascists have been typing for years as training material
Could be, but I bet these nerds wrote it by hand. What I meant is that it reads like AI slop, in that it's fatuous and vague demagoguery
- Trust your masters, give them everything you have, and expect noting in return.
- Oboy reinstatement of the military draft.
- Something, something, make a profit from the state (capitalists over politicians, of course).
An absolutely shocking reveal. LOL.
I don't even know where to start with this manifesto. This is legitimately something for future history books. I've never seen a more elegant distillation of modern fascism and all it entails. I'll need some time to read this again and just take it all in enough to be able to comment on it. It's the kind of shit that the left has been talking about for years now, and they just went and posted the thing.
Jathan Sadowski right now:
- The pervasive intolerance of religious belief in certain circles must be resisted. The elite’s intolerance of religious belief is perhaps one of the most telling signs that its political project constitutes a less open intellectual movement than many within it would claim.
A movement being open is a movement without principles
All of the points in the Palantir screed that don't explicitly reference current states or organizations read like the quotes that introduce any given chapter in a Dune book
Rulers are notoriously cynical where religions are concerned. Religion, too, is a weapon. What manner of weapon is religion when it becomes the government?
You will have no tanks left - Hezbollah Military Media
Related article: https://thecradle.co/articles/hezbollahs-fpv-drones-pose-shocking-threat-to-israeli-troops-occupying-south-lebanon-report
you know what, eff you blockades your blockade
Retvrn to tradition, embrace double circumvallation per Alesia
Iran warns that security in the Strait of Hormuz does not come free - Prensa Latina
::: spoiler Article
Tehran, April 20 (Prensa Latina) Iran's First Vice President, Mohammad Reza Aref, stated today that security in the Strait of Hormuz "comes at a price" and warned that its guarantee cannot be expected free of charge while restrictions on Iranian oil exports continue.
In a message posted on the social network X, Aref addressed the situation in this strategic maritime route, currently affected by tensions stemming from the naval blockade imposed by the United States.
“The choice is clear: either a free oil market for all, or a risky and costly one for all,” the senior official said, while noting that the stability of global energy prices depends on ending the economic and military pressure against Iran and its allies.
The statement comes after Iranian authorities announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response to US actions, according to a statement from the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters.
Following that decision, the UK Maritime Operations Office (UKMTO) reported several incidents involving vessels in the area off the coast of Oman in a short period of time.
Meanwhile, Iran reported launching drones against US warships, after Washington announced an attack on an Iranian cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman.
These events coincide with expectations of a possible resumption of negotiations between the United States and Iran in Islamabad, amid conflicting reports about the development of the diplomatic process.
The current scenario is part of the conflict that began on February 28, which left thousands of victims, followed by a temporary ceasefire announced on April 8 with mediation from Pakistan. :::
Freedom ain’t free baby yeehaw
"Nice oil tanker you got there.....be a shame if something happened to it...."
