Yuritopiaposadism [none/use name]
technologyYou can't do that! Sanctions were supposed to cripple your energy grid and then magic overthrow while we blame the elected "dictator"!
Could it be possible for Cuba to produce solar panels on their own? Or does the island lack too many of the basic materials?
It would be amazing if China gave an entire solar panel production line to Cuba.
One technology I'm quite hopeful for are thin-film solar panels. They are about as efficient but can been rolled up into spool for transport so you can fit a lot more into a container. The problem right now is that they contain heavy metals. And you really don't want heavy metals for something mass produced like solar panels. But there are newer versions getting developed without heavy metals. (A large share of solar produced in the US contains heavy metals of course)
I'm still not sure how those thin-film solar panels would be best used but I imagine that you can still glue them to glass panels for longevity.
They'd want to start with assembly of parts manufactured in China, probably. That would let them gradually take over more parts of production and insert them into an already-existing process. Even if they need to import raw materials, that can still be cheaper than importing the components or final product.
But right now, they aren't really paying for the panels at all. China's just donating them. Given Cuba's size and the embargo, it might not make sense to invest in PV production. China could get the whole island running on solar in just a few years. What would be the use of manufacturing PV on the island at that point? It would be very difficult to get a consistent export market in a way that competes with what China can deliver. Cuba's priority should be building up autarkic circuits within the country powered by a Chinese-donated solar grid.
the material gain on chinas part is probably providing support for the panels (repair, technical calls, etc). theres also razor thin margins on panels in china rn so getting rid of older less efficient panels in exchange for long term support is probably a good deal for them, might be net positive over the long run. plus theres the benefit of holding to socialist values and having a very friendly country to trade with if you dont let their energy sector go to shit.
Cuba's in a shitty position, the Soviets made it so Cuba was an agricultural powerhouse of the Socialist world, but that meant they never industrialised. That said they also have enormous Cobalt, Copper, and Nickel reserves (which were just coming online when Venezuela's economy shit the bed and ruined everything), and a decent amount of other resources. They're just short on oil, coal, gas, and iron. which is a shitty combo if you want an industry.
They do have silica reserves but they're still ramping up their first big pilot factory (again, they're not stupid, they were just dealt a shitty hand.)
Cuba's in a shitty position, the Soviets made it so Cuba was an agricultural powerhouse
Extremely patronizing towards Cubans and their democratic choices. You cannot have an industrialized nation locked to an island of 10mn inhabitants without it relying on the outside world for almost literally everything. If Cuba had been an industrialized nation a-la Poland, it would have imploded in 1990 when all its energy and material inputs disappeared, being a relatively rural and agricultural sector economy allowed it to adapt to the lack of energy and material inputs and survive the siege.
I don't see what would be the point of Cuba producing a fraction of solar panels (at immensely higher relative costs due to lack of economy of scale) when they can import them at 1/10th the price from China. I don't think you're doing materialist analysis of the reality of the possibilities of Cuba as a blockaded island off the coast of the USA. The fact that they survived the Periodo Especial points to them having taken almost literally every single correct choice in the development and structuring of the country and society, it's easily as miraculous as the Soviet industrial revolution and should be admired as that.
My logic is that if a country needs something, it's always better to have the ability to produce it locally, I admit I left out the crucial part of the question about cost-effectiveness. But does it matter being cost-effective when self-reliance is at stake? Cuba only has 10 million people and a relatively small land area, but it isn't Grenada, Fiji or the Maldives, I believe it can achieve a level of autarky similar to the DPRK, a country with a similar land area.
China can definitely provide over the course of years the amount of solar panels necessary to power the whole country, but what about after that? The economy must grow to provide better conditions for the people and a growing economy needs a growing power capacity. China is a reliable partner, but what about the event in which the solar panel flow stops for any reason? Ultimately I believe these questions about long term economic strategy and self-reliance are still quite important, Cuba did barely survive for a long time with the way they handled things so far, but I wish to see them truly thrive for once. It's a sad sight to see all those buildings in Havana in a state of disrepair.
what about the event in which the solar panel flow stops for any reason?
Then you can get still many years of use out of the solar panels you have. It's not as big of a deal compared to oil getting cut off.
if a country needs something, it's always better to have the ability to produce it locally
I fully agree, but this is materially impossible in an island-nation with 10mn inhabitants which is blockaded from international trade. You can't have enough specialists, industrial workers, resource extraction and refinement, food production etc. to have a fully functioning self-sustaining industry, it's impossible to stress enough how vital international trade is. The eastern block got away with self reliance because the former USSR was by far the largest country on Earth and the eastern block had a population of 300mn, this is materially not feasible in Cuba alone.
I believe it can achieve a level of autarky similar to the DPRK
The DPRK has 2.5 times the population, that's 2.5 times as much workforce and specialization. It's also not an island kilometers away from the USA, it's a peninsula touching China and Russia.
Ultimately I believe these questions about long term economic strategy and self-reliance are still quite important
I fully agree, I'm just saying that for the past 70 years it's been materially impossible to achieve this in Cuba, and given how they survived the Periodo Especial, they clearly followed the correct policy.
You make a great point, I just find it hard to accept that Cuba will always be in a vulnerable position, doomed by geography and demographics. I'm glad we had this exchange.
In a way, it also makes it all the more amazing that Cuba can be a socialist country so close to the US and hasn't been couped out of existence yet
On the other hand, I believe that precisely because of geography and demographics, Africa has the potential to become USSR2. Huge variety of climates, availability of natural resources, abundant sunlight for renewables, far from the USA, and except for northern Africa doesn't have a recent history of strong nation-states manufacturing nationalist propaganda against their neighbors, the vast plains of the Sahel create an uninterrupted possibility for cultural and economic exchange similar to the Great European Plain in the USSR. This might be copium, though, but I truly have hopes of seeing that in my lifetime. The history of colonialism would do wonders for propaganda and unification too
On the other hand, I believe that precisely because of geography and demographics, Africa has the potential to become USSR2.
One unified Africa under scientific socialism
I share the same view as you on this, with the way imperial control mechanisms seem to be slowly withering away from Africa I believe it's not just an unfounded hope, we really might see it happen in the next 50 years. The eventual creation of a robust, self-sufficient AUSSR is likely part of the long term strategy of Chinese economic investments into the continent, as economic power grows so will leverage against systems of neocolonial control, while also creating a robust proletarian class.
A fun question to think about is where will the first spark of this movement start, where will borders start to dissolve first, I wonder.
But at what cost?
They are getting quite fanciful in their words to deride the Cuban economy. I don't think I've seen "moribund" before.
man I wonder how that happened. economy just did that I guess must be all the communism
You have been given an honorary degree in bourgeois economics
does this mean I can work for a think tank?!
Sorry, your parents aren't connected enough
woaw you got it in one smart them
