FM: Estonia prepared to discuss sending forces to Hormuz Strait with US

It is over for Iran. Oil to $40.

Novara Media | 1h Interview with Daniel Levy (former advisor of Israeli gov) about the possible logic from Israels perspective. Highly recommend.

Oh thank fuck

Ohio is finally over

https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/brussels-court-orders-trial-over-1961-killing-of-patrice-lum

A Brussels court has ordered Belgian ex-diplomat Etienne Davignon, 93, to stand trial over his alleged role in the 1961 assassination of Congolese independence leader Patrice Lumumba, in a case widely seen as part of Belgium’s delayed reckoning with its colonial legacy in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Davignon, the only surviving figure among 10 Belgians accused by Lumumba’s family, faces charges of “participation in war crimes,” including involvement in the unlawful detention, transfer, and degrading treatment of the Congolese leader prior to his killing.

The court’s decision, announced Tuesday, was welcomed by Lumumba’s grandson, Mehdi Lumumba, who described it as “historic,” adding that “Belgium is finally confronting its history.” The ruling remains subject to appeal.

If the trial proceeds, Davignon would become the first Belgian official to face legal accountability in the 65 years since Lumumba’s assassination, an event that has long symbolized the violent legacy of Belgian colonial interference in Congo’s sovereignty.

:belgium-cool: RIP Comrade Lumumba

Soooo do you think bibi's dead?

https://xcancel.com/ProudSocialist/status/2033904391963447558

BREAKING: Trump economic adviser Kevin Hassett just said the quiet part out loud. “If the war were to be extended it wouldn't really disrupt the US economy at all. It would hurt consumers…but that's really the last of our concerns right now." They don’t care about us at all.

WHAT THE HELL DO YOU THINK AN ECONOMY IS!? JUST A BUNCH OF DOLLARS FLOATING OUT INTO THE ETHER?

have the US economic elite been so mindbroken by financialization and stock buybacks that they genuinely can't conceptualize that products need to eventually be bought by someone at some point? do they think they can just keep money moving back and forth between a handful of bank accounts while the general populace is reduced to a medieval peasant level of economic participation?

Trump counter-terrorism chief quits over Iran war, blaming Israel

Joe Kent, director of the National Counterterrorism Center and a far-right political figure and supporter of Donald Trump, resigned from his position on Tuesday in protest of the war in Iran.

“I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran,” Kent wrote in a resignation letter posted to X. “Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.”

Kent, who worked under the director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, is a former special forces warrant officer with extensive combat experience. His wife, Shannon Kent, a navy cryptologic technician, was killed in action in 2019 during a suicide bombing in Manbij, Syria.

Kent’s letter lauded Trump’s foreign military actions in his first administration, such as the killing of Qassem Suleimani and “defeating Isis” while avoiding being drawn into “never-ending wars”. But he charged the president with abandoning this posture after an influence campaign.

“Early in this administration, high-ranking Israeli officials and influential members of the American media deployed a misinformation campaign that wholly undermined your America First platform and sowed pro-war sentiments to encourage a war with Iran,” Kent wrote. “This echo chamber was used to deceive you into believing that Iran posed an imminent threat to the United States, and you should strike now, there was a clear path to a swift victory.

“This was a lie and is the same tactic the Israelis used to draw us into the disastrous Iraq war that cost our nation the lives of thousands of our best men and women. We cannot make this mistake again.”

Very interesting video if real and not an AI fake, I'm leaning towards AI fake

Delta winged single tail fighter jets reportedly over Shiraz, Iran. Neither the US, Israel, nor Iran operate aircraft with this configuration, but several Gulf Arab countries do operate aircraft like this (Mirage, Typhoon, Rafale). Are Arab countries now bombing Iran? Or is this an elaborate AI fake?

Trump says he's not thinking of pulling out of NATO, but that he could do it without Congress if he wanted to

Please lathe please let the crashout from the immediate lib pushback of "nuh-uh, you DO need Congress" be a "WRONG. We're done with NATO. I'm dissolving it."

Car bomb at the US embassy in Baghdad

Ecuador (with help from the US) just bombed Colombia.

Colombia accuses Ecuador of bombing its border; attack left 27 charred bodies - El Heraldo Mexico

::: spoiler Article

Gabriela Sommerfield, Ecuador's foreign minister, explained that her country is conducting operations to attack camps of irregular groups.

Gustavo Petro , the president of Colombia , denounced via the X network that his country was bombed by Ecuador on the southern border, leaving at least 27 charred bodies . The president explained on Tuesday that a recording, which he obtained from a security services source , reveals that the airstrikes originated from Ecuador . However, he clarified that it would need to be "thoroughly investigated."

"There are 27 charred bodies and the explanation is not credible. The bombs are on the ground near families, many of whom have peacefully decided to replace their coca leaf crops with legal crops," he posted on his X account.

Foreign Minister Gabriela Sommerfeld rejects bombings against Ecuadorians

He clarified that once the investigations are complete, he will make "the appropriate decisions." For her part, Gabriela Sommerfeld, Ecuador 's Foreign Minister, explained that her country is conducting "operations targeting camps of irregular groups" and clarified that these are not Ecuadorian targets , even though they are located within the country.

Daniel Noboa, the president of Ecuador , confirmed this information early this morning and denied any bombing of Colombian territory, according to Gabriela Sommerfeld. However, Petro warned that he had asked his US counterpart , Donald Trump , to intervene to prevent the conflict from escalating, and asserted that "we do not want to go to war."

On Monday night, Petro claimed that an aerial bomb had appeared on the Colombian border, prompting the security agency to investigate the possible attack originating from its neighbor .

Ecuador accuses "lack of cooperation" in the fight against drug trafficking

The accusations come after Noboa criticized Colombia for failing to cooperate in the fight against cocaine trafficking to North America, Europe, and Asia. Last February, Daniel Noboa imposed a 30 percent tariff on Colombian products, and two weeks ago increased it to 50 percent, citing the " lack of cooperation " in combating criminal groups in the drug trafficking routes.

Petro met with Donald Trump on February 3rd, where he confessed that on the border with Ecuador "there are dozens of dead, burned alive," and called on coca farmers to replace their coca leaf crops . Their tariff and security disputes have also impacted the transportation market.

The United States government has also strengthened ties with Ecuador, as its military forces collaborated last week to destroy a Border Commando camp located on the Colombian-Ecuadorian border. In addition, Quito and Washington launched a two-week operation to target drug trafficking gangs in the provinces of Guayas, El Oro, Los Ríos, and Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas. :::

Magnitude 6 earthquake strikes Cuba, EMSC says - Reuters

March 17 (Reuters) - An ​earthquake of ‌magnitude 6 ​struck ​Cuba on ⁠Tuesday, ​European ​Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC) ​said. The ​quake had a ‌depth ⁠of 15 ​km (9.3 ​miles), ⁠EMSC said.

Cuban government announces measures to facilitate the participation of Cubans residing abroad in the national economy - CubaDebate

::: spoiler Article

The Cuban government announced a series of decisions aimed at expanding the participation of Cubans living abroad in the country's economy, including their access to private businesses, productive projects, and the national financial system.

During his appearance on the television program Mesa Redonda, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Trade and Foreign Investment, Óscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, explained that the new provisions seek to create conditions so that Cubans living outside the country can become more directly involved in economic activities within the Island.

Among the measures announced is the possibility that Cubans residing abroad, even if they do not have effective residence in Cuba, can participate as partners or owners of private companies in the country.

According to the official, this participation will not be limited to small businesses. Cubans abroad will also be able to get involved in larger-scale projects, including infrastructure ventures and other major economic initiatives.

Furthermore, these citizens will be allowed to partner with Cuban private companies through different business arrangements, as well as establish alliances with Cuban state and private entities, thus expanding the possibilities for economic cooperation.

Regarding land-related activities, the deputy prime minister indicated that the allocation of land for usufruct is planned for the development of productive projects, which would allow for the channeling of investments and experiences from Cubans abroad towards the agricultural sector and other related areas.

Another decision announced relates to the financial sector. Authorities reported that Cubans residing abroad will be allowed to participate in the national banking and financial system.

In that regard, they will be able to open bank accounts in foreign currency at Cuban banks, which will facilitate operations related to investments, businesses and other economic activities within the country.

During his speech, Pérez-Oliva Fraga also stated that Cuba is open to trade with US companies, referring to potential opportunities for economic exchange, although he acknowledged that these possibilities remain conditioned by the restrictions imposed by the US economic blockade.

According to the deputy prime minister, these measures are part of the actions aimed at expanding sources of financing, boosting the national economy, and strengthening economic ties with the Cuban community residing abroad.

With the new measures, Cubans residing abroad will be able to:

Partnering with private companies and cooperatives under the Foreign Investment Law.

• To be partners or owners of private companies. To do so, they must be included in the immigration status of "investors and businesses" established by the current Immigration Law.

• To participate in the different financial modalities provided for in current legislation. For this purpose, they will be issued a license by the Central Bank of Cuba, under Decree Law 362 of 2018 “On the Institutions of the Banking and Financial System”.

• Obtain licenses to participate as virtual asset service providers.

• Open foreign currency accounts in national banks for the development of your business in the country.

• Invest in investment funds managed by a financial institution and thus contribute to the financing of projects of interest that offer the profitability that guarantees the return of the fund.

• Create a fund for international cooperation projects with local or national scope. :::

Cuba continues recovery of its electrical power system - Prensa Latina

::: spoiler Article

Havana, March 17 (Prensa Latina) Cuba today took another step in restoring the National Electrical System (SEN), which is now linked from the western province of Pinar del Río to Holguín, in the Northeast.

The National Electric System (SEN) suffered another total interruption yesterday, but the efforts of its workers to provide electricity to the population have allowed for a gradual recovery to the extent possible.

Currently, Unit Eight of the Mariel Thermoelectric Power Plant (CTE), the Antonio Guiteras CTE, and Unit Three of the Carlos Manuel de Céspedes are in the process of starting up.

According to the Electric Union, the CTE substation in Felton is now energized, and the unit in that eastern territory will be put into service in the coming hours.

Cuba's Minister of Energy and Mines, Vicente de la O Levy, highlighted on his social media account the efforts of the workers who are working in difficult circumstances to restore the National Electric System (SEN).

“Our workers rise to the occasion even under the most difficult conditions,” the minister wrote in a message about the progress of efforts to provide energy service to the population as soon as possible.

He emphasized that the restoration of the National Electric System (SEN) is progressing according to established protocols.

"Microsystems are operating in the provinces, and conditions are being created to deliver energy to the largest generating units," the official concluded. :::

Cuba facilitates the participation of its citizens in the economy - Prensa Latina

::: spoiler Article

Havana, March 17 (Prensa Latina) The Cuban government announced decisions to expand the participation of Cubans residing abroad, including access to private businesses, productive projects, and the national financial system.

The new provisions seek to create conditions for Cuban nationals to become more directly involved in economic activities within the island, explained Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Trade and Foreign Investment, Oscar Pérez-Oliva, speaking on the television program Mesa Redonda. Cubans residing abroad, even if they do not have effective residence in Cuba, may participate as partners or owners of private companies in the country.

Pérez-Oliva specified that they will be able to participate in both small businesses and get involved in larger-scale projects, including ventures linked to infrastructure and other larger economic initiatives. Partnering with Cuban private companies through different business models, establishing alliances with Cuban entities, both state and private, expands the possibilities for economic cooperation, the deputy prime minister listed.

Regarding land-related activities, he explained that the plan includes granting land in usufruct for the development of productive projects, which would allow for channeling investments and experiences from Cubans abroad to the agricultural sector and other related areas. In the financial sphere, Cubans residing abroad will be enabled to participate in the Cuban financial and banking system. They will be able to open bank accounts in foreign currency at national banks, which will facilitate operations related to investments, businesses, and other economic activities within the country.

Pérez-Oliva asserted that Cuba is open to trade with US companies, referring to potential opportunities for economic exchange, possibilities conditioned by the restrictions imposed by the US economic, commercial and financial blockade against Cuba. These measures aim to expand sources of financing, boost the economy, and strengthen economic ties with the Cuban community residing abroad. In detail, Cubans residing abroad will be able to: associate with private companies and cooperatives under the Foreign Investment Law.

To be partners or owners of private companies, for which they must be included in the immigration status of "investors and businesses" established by the current Immigration Law. To participate in the different financial modalities provided for in current legislation, for this purpose a license will be issued by the Central Bank of Cuba, under Decree Law 362 of 2018 “Of the Institutions of the Banking and Financial System”.

:Obtain licenses to participate as virtual asset service providers, open foreign currency accounts in national banks for the development of their businesses in the country. Invest in investment funds managed by a financial institution and thus contribute to the financing of projects of interest that offer the profitability that guarantees the return of the fund. Create funds for international cooperation projects with local or national scope. :::

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/17/uk-security-adviser-attended-us-iran-talks-and-judged-deal-was-within-reach

I have sympathy for the Ukrainians trying to dodge the draft, the women fighting draft officers to prevent their men and boys from being sent to die, the leftists who are disenfranchised, etc.

But it gets to a point. The fact the government demands sympathy and support while aligning themselves with Israel, and now aligning themselves with the genocide of Cubans as they have been for years now - “death to Ukraine” becomes closer to being added to my list of phrases, along with Argentina and all the other inhuman pedophile and capitalist government that continues to oppose Cuba. The countries that performatively support Cuba aren’t so much better. But especially the gusanos who dance and cheer in the streets, so happy to see the people they supposedly care so much about die in darkness and starvation. My heart has become too hardened, and some people are not worth saving.

quick one from Polish osint guy

High-resolution satellite images clearly confirm strikes by Iranian missiles and drones on Al Dhafra Air Base, UAE. We can see damage to several hangars, warehouses, and barracks. The damage occurred during the early days of the US/Israeli-led war of aggression against Iran.

Trump being tired of the war and wondering why it's taking so long for Iran to surrender is really giving off "Why won't they ask me out" vibes. YOU could just surrender, Donald.

Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer “need,” or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea. In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World, WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE!

The deranged Trump posting continues. It's pathetic, and incredible how isolated and weak he's made the United States appear. Full ramblings are here, includes bangers like "most of our NATO “Allies”": https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116245182325726375

Hell, I was reading Il Sole 24 Ore this morning (basically the Italian FT, same "right wing neoliberal capitalist business" vibes) and even they had an article entitled "La solitudine di un presidente in guerra senza strategia" aka "The Solitude of a President in a War Without Strategy" (https://24plus.ilsole24ore.com/art/la-solitudine-un-presidente-guerra-senza-strategia-AIJgDD0B) that said exactly this. If the right wing Italian business press is harping on about how isolated and weak Trump looks, that's uh Not a Good Sign.

https://xcancel.com/GlobalIJournal/status/2033743234749374511

🇫🇷 French General Yakovleff:

“The U.S. asks us for help and wants us to share the cost of their fiascos. Joining Trump’s coalition today is like buying a ticket to dinner and dancing on the Titanic the evening after it hit the iceberg.”

The crazy thing about all this is that Trump could've attacked Iran, I don't know, a month into his presidency. Before all the "invading Greenland" stuff, before "Have you said thank you even once?" and if this situation happened then it would put European leaders in a much more difficult position. They'd have to pick a side, and those who cooperate would then have a harder time going against Trump because they committed, and those that didn't cooperate, their lack of cooperation could be used as a pretext to fuck with them. And the mood early on was like, "We just have to comply and appease him to weather the storm."

But by showing his hand first, he's made it incredibly easy for everyone to say they've had enough of his shit and he's on his own. It doesn't make any sense to me.

Only explanations I can see is that Trump has hit cognitive decline to the point that he doesn't know how to not look like a loser anymore, or it really was unplanned and Israel forced their hand.

Btw, can someone explain to me why the US asked for China's help with the straight? Does this accomplish anything other than making the US look weak and desperate?

https://xcancel.com/clashreport/status/2033893436273672516

The USS Gerald R. Ford is expected to return to Crete next week, likely for refueling and possibly to investigate a fire that broke out on March 12. One scenario under review is that the fire may have been deliberately set by crew members seeking to end the prolonged deployment.

Source: Kathimerini

We are not a party to the conflict [in the Middle East] and will not participate in operations to open the Strait of Hormuz. Any mission in the Strait of Hormuz needs to be coordinated with Iran.

The EU Erdoğan has spoken. Macron very clearly stating that Iran controls the strait, and that any European "patrol" of the Strait of Hormuz will be at Iran's behest, not against it. Kind of a big deal, to even say out loud the idea of the EU "coordinating" with Iran on anything.

Director of US National Counterterrorism Center just resigned in protest of US-Israeli war on Iran.

First reports of Iranian drones flying over Israeli airspace. No clear geolocation yet, just something to keep an eye on.

Al Jazeera update

Poland’s PM Tusk has said his country will not send troops to participate in the Iran war, after President Trump asked allies to help form a coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz. Poland’s government “does not plan any expedition to Iran, and this does not raise any doubts on the part of our allies”, Tusk said ⁠before a government meeting.

He ⁠said this covered Poland’s land, air and naval forces, which are still being built up in the face of ⁠the conflict over the border in Ukraine.

The Guardian

52 second vid

Air attacks target US embassy in Baghdad

Drone and rocket attacks reportedly targeted the US embassy in Baghdad early on Tuesday and a separate strike killed four people at a house reportedly hosting Iranian advisers in the Iraqi capital, security officials said, pulling the country deeper into the war in the Middle East.

The strikes came hours after air defences thwarted a rocket attack at the embassy and a drone caused a fire at a luxury hotel frequented by foreign diplomats in Baghdad’s fortified green zone, Agence France-Presse reported

Iran raises minimum wage by more than 60 percent

According to Tasnim news agency, the monthly minimum wage will climb from 103 million rials to 166 million rials. Officials also approved a similar increase in family allowances.

Iran reviews wages each year in line with inflation, which has surged under international sanctions and economic disruption linked to the ongoing war.

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iran-security-chief-targeted-ali-larijani-strike

Israel claims that they killed Larijani.

https://xcancel.com/Alihashem/status/2033504297086755084

Been here in Tehran for the past couple of days, here are a few observations.

• Striking contrast, despite the ongoing military confrontation, daily life largely continues. Shops, restaurants, and malls are open, clear shift from the paralyzed atmosphere of last year’s 12-day war.
• Iranian authorities are navigating on two layers. State rhetoric clearly frames this as an existential conflict, yet there is a concerted domestic effort to project normalcy and stability for residents. All indicators suggest the government is bracing for a protracted, multi-month conflict.
• Because Tehran is such a huge city, the physical toll of the conflict isn't spotted. Destruction is localized, though the damage is unmistakable in certain districts. Meanwhile, state mobilization remains highly visible, with several pro-government rallies taking place across various neighborhoods.
• Following a deceptively calm day yesterday, airstrikes targeted local fuel depots post-midnight. The escalation continued into this morning with a massive blast heard toward the city center, followed by at least two more explosions in the northern suburbs.
• These strikes on critical energy infrastructure represent a significant pressure on the state and residents. Aside from the day to day impact, the scene, the smoke, the smell all have their own effects.

an article from a few days ago, so even more Reapers may have been downed since then (Iran claimed a total of 111 a few days ago, counting both American and Israeli drones) https://archive.ph/ESejh

MQ-9s Over Iran: Striking and Finding Targets—But Taking Some Losses

MQ-9 Reapers are flying numerous orbits over Iran, gathering intelligence and taking out missile launchers in Operation Epic Fury. Yet Iran has managed to down about 10 of the armed drones, according to people familiar with the operations, who asked not to be identified.

::: spoiler more

Use of the Reapers has helped ensure manned U.S. fighters haven’t been shot down over hostile territory, and the losses demonstrate Iran has some ability to damage airborne threats. U.S. Central Command, which is leading the campaign, confirmed MQ-9s are operating as part of Operation Epic Fury, but declined comment on the shoot-downs or the specific role the Reapers are playing. The Air Force referred questions to CENTCOM. CBS News reported March 9 that 11 MQ-9s had been lost during operations against Iran, citing two U.S. officials. Weapons systems video released by CENTCOM—many apparently shot from the cameras aboard Reapers—show U.S. weapons destroying what Iranian mobile missile or drone launchers and aircraft. Some of the launchers were road-mobile and on the move when they were struck, the videos show. In other strikes, the videos show Reapers firing what appear to be Hellfire missiles at ground targets and parked aircraft. At other times, the videos suggest the MQ-9s may be targeting for other platforms or providing surveillance.

...

“The joint force remains focused on three military objectives: Continue to destroy Iranian ballistic missiles and drone capability in order to prevent attacks on the U.S. and others throughout the region,” Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine said at a Pentagon press briefing on March 10. “And this means attacking launch sites, command and control nodes, [and] stockpiles before they can threaten our personnel, our facilities, and our partners.” The rate of Iranian ballistic missile attacks have declined 90 percent since the start of the war, and its one-way drone attacks are down 83 percent, Caine said. But so far Iran has managed to retain its ability to fire missiles and drones and its weapons remain deadly threats. “Every day, we’re striking hard at Iranian ballistic missiles and drones,” said Adm. Brad Cooper, the CENTCOM commander, in a video released March 11. “Forces executing Operation Epic Fury aren’t just defending against Iranian threats, we are methodically dismantling them by hitting Iranian missiles and drones as we also strike their defense industrial base.” Cooper also said: “I’d characterize our strikes as being unpredictable, dynamic, and decisive. Since the first 24 hours of this campaign, Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks have dropped drastically.”

The MQ-9s appear to be one reason for that rapid decline. The U.S. aircraft are far more sophisticated than the low-cost drones fielded by Iran, carrying a variety of sensors and munitions. On-board equipment includes electro-optical/infrared sensors, laser designators, maritime surveillance radar, electronic intelligence gathering systems, and General Atomics’ Lynx multimode radar, which the company says can capture high-resolution imagery even through smoke, dust, and bad weather. The aircraft have ranged in cost from about $13 million to $16 million, according to an Air Force accident investigation report and General Atomics spokesman C. Mark Brinkley, who said the Air Force’s final contract for Reapers, struck in 2020, was about $16 million per aircraft. Brinkley declined to comment about the MQ-9’s use against Iran and referred questions regarding their operations to the U.S. military. Reapers can range over 1,000 miles and remain on station for long periods, with flight times in excess of 27 hours. Weapons payloads can weigh up to 3,850 pounds, including combinations of AGM-114 Hellfire missiles, GBU-12 Paveway II and GBU-49 Enhanced Paveway missiles, and GBU-38 and GBU-54 Joint Direct Attack Munitions. The MQ-9 can also be used to guide munitions expended by other aircraft, such as laser-guided JDAMs, which Air Force and Navy fighters appear to be dropping in Epic Fury. Some of the footage released by CENTCOM shows what appears to be aircraft, likely Reapers, lasing targets for munitions dropped from above by other aircraft.

The MQ-9s participating in Operation Epic Fury are likely playing a role in orchestrating attacks on key Iranian targets, observed retired Brig. Gen. Houston Cantwell, a former F-16 and MQ-9 pilot and former commander of the 732nd Operations Group at Creech Air Force Base, Nev., which flies Reapers in operations like this one. “Although most folks associate the MQ-9 with one mission set—and that is counterterrorism and close air support—the MQ-9 has rapidly matured, proving itself in important dynamic targeting roles at exercises Red Flag and Valiant Shield,” said Cantwell, now a senior resident fellow at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. While the Air Force has flown MQ-9s in combat for nearly two decades, including heavy use over Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria, the Air Force has considered phasing them out in the near future, reasoning they are too slow and visible to sophisticated air defenses such as those used by China in the Pacific. But Cantwell said the Reaper still has value and brings critical capabilities to the modern battlespace. “It turns out that when you have a platform with the persistence and the precision strike that the MQ-9 brings, it can close the kill chain better than most other platforms out there,” Cantwell said. “And we’re likely seeing that here in Iran. The MQ-9 can bring multiple intelligence feeds, not to mention its own intelligence-collection capabilities, both with full-motion video, electronic intelligence, and different kinds of pods it can now carry. It can gather real-time intelligence at the very forward edge of the battle space and find the dynamic targets, which, as we’ve heard, is CENTCOM’s number one priority.”

It does so at lower risk because the people flying it are operating remotely. “It can put all the pieces together and close the kill chain,” Cantwell said. More importantly, its operators can also call the plays. “Sometimes it’s going to be the quarterback. If there’s time, and if a threat allows, it can call in other shooters to save its own munitions. Or maybe no other aircraft are available, so it can shoot its own Hellfire missile and strike the target immediately.” Epic Fury is showing off the Reapers’ value as something other than a pure hunter-killer drone. “I think it’s a fantastic use of this capability,” Cantwell said. “And it’s proving the MQ-9’s vital role beyond counterterrorism.” Even when Reapers are downed, experts say, they are proving valuable because their use frees crewed aircraft from loitering over targets. Iran’s air defenses include electro-optical/infrared surface-to-air missile systems, which have proven challenging to U.S. defenses because their passive sensors don’t provide the kind of advance warning that radar-activated missile systems do. Those systems were active in Yemen in 2025 during Operation Rough Rider, and were particularly effective against Reapers, according to current and former officials. Houthi rebels in Yemen shot down at least half a dozen MQ-9s last year, and over a dozen Reapers were lost to the Houthis since late 2023. Combined with losses in Iran, that means the Air Force may have lost as much as 10 percent of its Reaper fleet.

the total force was 230 as of 2025, so they're counting 11 here + at least 12 in Yemen for 23 - so this is the lower estimate, depending on how many more were actually lost in Yemen, it could be a bigger percentage in reality (and of course more Reapers are likely to be lost in Iran)

The advantage of unmanned systems is underscored by the perils of a modern air war. Just last year, two F-16 pilots earned Silver Star medals for skillfully evading Houthi SAMs over Yemen. “Would you rather have a manned platform flying in this vulnerable state?” Cantwell asks. “Or would you rather have an unmanned platform that’s able to tie all these pieces together, find the dynamic targets, and call in the strikes? I’d much rather have the unmanned.” When crewed aircraft go down in combat zones, rescue operators rush in to try to get the crew out—a dangerous job that puts more people at risk. In the worst circumstance, pilots can be captured. The 1993 Somalia incident where U.S. Army aviators were dragged through the streets of Mogadishu, Somalia, remains branded in many people’s memories. Douglas Birkey, Executive Director of the Mitchell Institute sees the Reapers as protecting Americans. “This is preventing another Black Hawk Down,” he said.

:::

https://xcancel.com/ArmchairW/status/2033743330673062043

Direct hit on US embassy in Baghdad after unsuccessful C-RAM engagement

C-RAM struggling to down propeller-powered Shaheds isn't exactly inspiring when considering possible engagements by naval Phalanx against antiship missiles that are several times faster, or short-range kill drones (in, say, the Strait) that are far smaller and more maneuverable.

https://xcancel.com/AryJeay/status/2033723867538084239

2 Israeli air defenses were launched but headed toward a completely different direction than the Iranian missile which passed through without getting intercepted. Not sure what’s happening here.

https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/2033723791319437312/vid/avc1/1008x1266/DOxm4IvM7ZOvJN4X.mp4

So based on statements by the Saudi defense ministry, take a look at this chart of attacks on Saudi bases:

As is clearly evident, the number of attacks is increasing, despite Iran's military capabilities being 100% destroyed (real)[confirmed]{I swear it} . To my mind, this implies Iran has pretty much exhausted military targets close to Iran, and is searching far afield for more American hardware to hit. I'm not sure if that's the right read here, but regardless this kind of information is not exactly encouraging for the Epstein Coalition.

https://archive.ph/yC6HV

US Army plans research center to boost explosives production

As conflicts around the world deplete stockpiles and strain munitions production, the United States wants to create a research and manufacturing center to boost the production of explosives.

"research center" WHAT IS THERE TO RESEARCH, MASS PRODUCTION OF EXPLOSIVES HAS BEEN A SOLVED PROBLEM SINCE FUCKING WW1

precision-guided munitions are perhaps an area where optimizations could be made (although the main optimization there would simply be "don't piss China off so you don't get cut off from the rare earths that are used in all of your fancy shit", which isn't really an industrial organization problem but a political idiocy one), but this seems to be mainly about the base compounds used to fill munitions, not fancy missiles

::: spoiler more

The facility, which will be located at Blue Grass Army Depot, Kentucky, will be a “comprehensive, modern, and efficient ‘Center of Excellence’ (CoE) for scale-up and production of current and emerging explosives,” according to the Army’s Sources Sought notice, which has a deadline of April 15. The Army wants this facility quickly. The notice calls for “rapid acceleration of this capability with completion prior to 2031.” The center doesn’t even need to be in one location. “The Government’s preference is for a single, integrated campus model, but will consider distributed or networked concepts,” the Army noted. The Army aims to establish a site that will “serve as a focal point within the organic industrial base using traditional or non-traditional production processes for Research Department Explosive (RDX) and High Melting Explosive (HMX).” In addition, the Army is also considering a pilot facility to research and produce next-generation emerging explosives. Contractors are asked to provide a variety of information, such as their design for a facility that could include “[research and development] labs, pilot-scale production, full-rate production lines, analytical testing, packaging, waste treatment, and administrative/support functions.” Also desired is an estimated “price per pound for RDX and HMX components and current RDX- and HMX-based formulations the CoE could produce, assuming five and ten years of fixed prices and no government direct funding during operations.”

Companies should also describe how they plan to fund themselves for the project, and how much money they are willing to invest. They should also consider whether private- or government-funded projects — either at DOD or non-DOD sites — can be moved to Blue Grass Army Depot to “optimize the operational viability of the CoE.”

yeah, the US is never actually getting proper industrial policy, it's going to be "pls Mr. Tech Entrepreneurs Man figure out how to magically scale up production" until the end of time

The Army also seems concerned about providing explosives to U.S. allies. “Due to the urgency of this requirement, the Government intends to release a follow-on Sources Sought notice to award a non-competitive, sole-source, Undefinitized Contract Action (UCA)” for contracts related to Ukraine, Taiwan, and Israel, according to the notice. With conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East devouring munitions at a ferocious rate, and many nations beefing up their armed forces, there are already shortages and production bottlenecks of everything from howitzer shells to air defense missiles. The global shortage of explosives will only exacerbate that problem, especially because factories that make explosives are not popular with the local citizenry. Environmental concerns led to the closure in the 1980s of the last domestic plant in the U.S. for producing TNT. Shortages have become so acute that even commercial miners lack blasting charges. In addition, nations are hoarding explosives. Major exporters of TNT include Russia and China, which have halted sales to America.

Poland — the biggest TNT manufacturer in NATO — has been a major supplier to the Pentagon. However, Polish explosives output has been diverted to Ukraine, or retained for the Polish military. Polish manufacturer Nitro-Chem recently announced it is expanding production. :::

NYT update

Israel attempted to kill one of Iran’s most powerful leaders, Ali Larijani, in a strike overnight on Tuesday, according to three Israeli military officials. The officials — who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive subject — could not immediately confirm if Larijani had been killed. Larijani is the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and a close confidant of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed on Feb. 28, the first day of U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.

seems like there's been another ban/suspension wave

https://xcancel.com/Jangjouye/status/2033809314067189827

It was unclear where this account got its information from, but it posted detailed photos of the places that Israel and America had attacked. He had two million followers. And that's it. We need to migrate to another app. The longer we delay this, the more it will cost us.

https://xcancel.com/ripplebrain/status/2033747386686640195

Bragging about how many bots you've banned for posting AI slop and then suspending an invaluable source of slop-free reporting like @bonzerbarry is ridiculous

at this point, you can probably assume that for any OSINT account you're posting, there's a decent chance it's been left up for a reason - either because they're not going to report on Israeli losses, or because they're AI-slop posters making outrageous claims for the other side which discredits the Resistance information sphere (funny how those folks seem to not get banned)

https://xcancel.com/cym27s/status/2033706734682771794

A reported hydraulic problem involving a U.S. KC-135R refueling tanker. The plane came all the way from Iraq and is currently circling off the Israeli coast, expected to land shortly at Ben Gurion Airport

well, you know, planes sometimes just do that

(The thing is, when you have a decaying fleet of half-century-old planes, they do just do that - by the end of this, the US may well have lost more equipment to attrition and user error than to actual combat. It's easy to kind of start dooming about the US's ability to just bomb anyone in the world, but you have to remember that this capability isn't free - all these constant deployments wear down equipment, they wear down people, and this isn't the Cold War anymore, the industrial capability to actually keep regularly replacing this equipment doesn't exist anymore - there were 803 KC-135s built in 10 years, with 376 still in service (soon to be 362, and this isn't counting the losses from this conflict), and they're going to be replaced by the KC-46, of which 110 have been built in a slightly longer period, and of which they plan to procure 179, possibly to be increased to 188)

I made a list of how countries are landing with public statements about backing of USIsrael in Straight of Hormuz.

• Some countries listed twice due to different reports or interpretation on my part
• All source links and quotes in spoiler

Hard Nos: Italy, Greece, Australia, Japan, Poland, Sweden, Spain, France, China, Canada

Soft Nos: Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Japan

Maybe: Denmark, South Korea, UK, France, Italy, Greece, India

Yes: France

::: spoiler sources Trump says Hormuz Strait help ‘on the way’ as allies reject military action | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera

Trump identified China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom as countries that should join the coalition.

Australia, Japan, Poland and Sweden and Spain saying they had no intentions of sending military ships.

German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius saying that there would be “no military participation”

South Korea and the UK have said they were reviewing the situation. The UK’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer said it was discussing the possibility of offering its mine-hunting drones in the region, but maintained the UK would “not be drawn into the wider war”.

France has indicated more willingness to help.

Without specifying a country, Trump pointed to one apparent rebuff.

“We have some countries where we have 45,000 soldiers … protecting them from harm’s way and we have done a great job,” he said. “And well, we want to know, do you ‌have any mine sweepers? ‘Well, would rather not get involved, sir.'”

European leaders reject military involvement in Strait of Hormuz | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera

Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten told the country’s ANP news agency that it would be “very difficult to launch a successful mission there in the short term”.

Lithuania and Estonia said NATO countries should consider a US request for help, but cautioned over the need for greater clarity around various aspects of any potential mission.

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna also said that US allies in Europe want to understand Trump’s “strategic goals”. “What will be the plan?” he asked.

⁠Greek government spokesman ⁠Pavlos ⁠Marinakis said ⁠that Greece ⁠would not ⁠engage in ⁠any military operations ‌in the Strait of Hormuz.

Italian Foreign ⁠Minister Antonio ⁠Tajani said Italy was not involved in any naval missions that could be ‌extended to the area.

Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said, however, that Europe should keep an open mind ⁠on helping to ensure freedom of navigation in the strait even if the continent did not support the ⁠US-Israeli decision to go to war with Iran.

“We must face the world as it is, not as we want it to be,” Rasmussen said, adding that the EU must decide on a plan “with a view towards de-escalation”.

Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski invited the Trump administration to go through the proper channels.

“If there is a request via NATO, we will, of course, out of respect and sympathy for our American allies, consider it very carefully,” he said.

How countries are responding to Trump’s call to send ships to Strait of Hormuz | The Independent

Japan and Australia have said they currently have no plans to send naval ships to protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, despite pressure from Washington.

However, Japanese prime minister Sanae Takaichi said the US had yet to make any formal request for assistance.

“We have not made any decisions whatsoever about dispatching escort ships. We are continuing to examine what Japan can do independently and what can be done within the legal framework,” she said.

Australia has also rejected calls to provide naval support to secure shipping in the strait. “We’ve been very clear about what our contribution is to requests and so far that is to the UAE obviously providing aircraft to assist with defence particularly given the number of Australians that are in that area in particular,” transport minister Catherine King said.

“We won’t be sending a ship to the Strait of Hormuz,” Ms King said.

France has ruled out sending additional military forces, saying its current posture aims to maintain regional stability rather than escalate tensions.

South Korea has not committed either way, saying they’ll “continue to communicate closely with the US regarding this matter and make a decision after careful review”.

Trump’s call for allied deployment to strait of Hormuz meets muted response | Strait of Hormuz | The Guardian

“I’m very clear and firm on this topic; at this point, there is no question of sending any vessels to the strait of Hormuz,” said Vautrin. She said that France maintained a “purely defensive position” and there were no current plans to move the French navy’s flagship vessel, the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier, out of the eastern Mediterranean.

According to the Financial Times, EU foreign affairs ministers are also considering widening the scope of the EU’s Aspides naval mission, which provides protection to ships in Yemen from attacks by Houthi rebels, to extend to the strait of Hormuz. At present, the Aspides naval mission consists of three ships, from France, Italy and Greece.

The Chinese embassy in Washington said at the weekend in a statement given to CNN that Beijing would work to strengthen “communication with relevant parties” in the Middle East and “play a constructive role for deescalation and restoration of peace”.

Iran war: Trump urges China, other nations, to send warships to secure Hormuz | South China Morning Post

Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson from the Chinese embassy in Washington, called for an immediate stop to military operations in the area, adding that “keeping the region safe and stable serves the common interests of the international community”.

Mark Carney meets Keir Starmer in London amid Iran war

Bill Blair, Canada's high commissioner in the U.K., said ahead of the meeting that Canada supports efforts to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, but is not getting directly involved in the conflict

India says no talks with US on warship deployment in Hormuz after Trump's appeal - India Today

Responding to questions at a media briefing on whether the US had approached India to send its warships to the region and New Delhi’s stance on the issue, External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said India has not engaged in bilateral talks with Washington on the matter.

“We are aware of this particular matter being discussed by several countries. We have not yet discussed it in a bilateral setting,” Jaiswal said. He added that India will continue discussions with several stakeholders regarding the issue.

Separately, in an interview with the Financial Times, he warned that "if there's no response or if it's a negative response I think it will be very bad for the future of Nato."

:::

North Korea Just Overtook the U.S. in Destroyer Construction.

::: spoiler spoiler

North Korean shipyards have overtaken those of the United States in the construction of ocean-going surface combat ships, with the shipbuilding industry having launched two destroyers in 2025, and scheduled to launch two more every year for the next five years under the next Five Year Plan, bringing total numbers in the water to 12 by the end of 2030. The U.S., by contrast, has been building Arleigh Burke class destroyers at rates of just 1.6 per year.

While the contraction in U.S. production of surface warships has declined much more slowly than the contraction of the civilian shipbuilding industry, the fall in the number of surface combat ships, and in the total tonnage launched per year has nevertheless been tremendous. North Korea, by contrast, had negligible industry for producing modern service ships until the 2020s, with limited resources concentrated on the submarine fleet.

Although unfortunately the Korean People’s Navy likely doesn’t have as advanced systems as the usn does, it does show how unserious the us currently is about shipbuilding. :::

The Phillipines amidst the war against Iran

The Epstein class war against Iran has showcased that many vassals in East Asia may also become targets in the fallout.

:::spoiler read more

Repercussions from the war has already hit many countries across the globe where it especially hurts: energy and food. There has been longstanding arguments if Southeast Asia will fall into deindustrialization and "Latin Americanization", marked by intense class differentiation, extractivism and dependency.

Out of the main ASEAN-6 countries, the one that arguably fits the bill best would be the Phillipines; a Spanish colonial past with American intervention, prevalence of drug trafficking and rotational theatre of military dictatorships and political dynasties.

The current situation doesn't paint a pretty picture for the country. Heavy reliant on "service-based growth" through BPOs and out-migration for remittances, surface-level statistics like GDP growth showcase a relatively okay picture. Looking deeper, however, the country is an overwhelming net oil importer with more than 95% coming from the Persian Gulf (with 60days of reserve), and a net food importer, importing almost double what it exports. Increased logistical costs from risk premiums and higher fuel oil prices further adds to the perfect storm. Adding in a record low of nearly 60 pesos to a dollar, the 2nd most populous SEA country may face the most severe ramifications of the war in Asia.

Notably, the countries also hosts EDCA sites that are technically not US bases, but:

if these EDCA sites walk like military bases, then they function like military bases. Under EDCA, the U.S. gets dedicated access to “agreed locations,” including the ability to:

• Rotate U.S. troops in and out

• Preposition U.S. military equipment, assets, and supplies

• Build/upgrade facilities

• Use the site for military logistics and operations

You can call it a “shared facilities” all day, but OPERATIONALLY, in any eventuality, they become and are forward staging nodes for the U.S. That’s base-like behavior, base-like utility, and base-like consequences.

What had lead to this current conundrum?

Of course the reality is the sort of comprador capitalism further weakened by neoliberal reforms enacted at the behest of Western Financial Capital through the World Bank in the 1980s. Persistently weak institutions coupled with foreign-imposed restrictions on state capacity building and false growth models adds to a perfect storm that ultimately leaves the Philippine masses at the behest of a global market whose sole purpose is surplus extraction and accumulation. The nation is now scrambling and pleading that other countries "honor oil pacts amid export curbs", showcasing the subjugated nature of the State to foreign actors.

The other side of this story is also persistent ideological confusion and disunity within the Philippine left. As argued by Docena in their article "Is the Philippines a ‘semi-feudal’ or a ‘backward capitalist’ society?: A Review of Recent Data",

Instead of merely upholding orthodoxy and applying Marxist concepts mechanically, they used them creatively to build on the idea that social formations can actually be mongrel or `articulated.' By doing so, they helped us overcome the limits of existing Marxist conventions. As other scholars have pointed out, however, both Sison and Legman nonetheless appear to hold on to one orthodox assumption: that societies are to be considered hybrid or otherwise by judging them against those societies that first became capitalist. Indeed, both Sison's description of Philippine society as being some kind of 'bastard' offspring of the coupling of imperialism and feudalism, on one hand and bagman's statement that the country has been "afflicted by an abnormality in its fetal stage," on the other, seem to imply a teleological view of historical development Both scholars appear to assume that there are "normal" stages and outcomes of historical development: those followed and exemplified by the likes of England, France, or the United States. Both scholars could be read as implying that societies becoming capitalist will eventually reach a common destination: a society with modern industry and a fully proletarianized producing class.

...Closely linked to these theoretical questions are urgent strategic questions: If feudalism has all but been eroded in the country, does it still make sense to aim at overthrowing feudalism or its vestiges? If the bourgeoisie has waged a "passive revolution," should the still aim at waging a "bourgeois democratic" revolution or does it need to pursue a very different kind of revolution altogether? If the peasantry is disintegrating, does it still make sense to count on them as the "main force" of this revolution? If the Philippine state has become more hegemonic (while still being repressive), must the revolutionary road go through a "protracted people's war" or an urban insurrection—or is there another way? If guerilla warfare or simple "wars of maneuver" hold little promise of victory given the new defenses built up by the state, to what should we be enjoining the youth and the oppressed to devote their lives instead? What sort of revolutionary strategy is more appropriate for the kind of society the Philippines has become?

As the peoples lives worsen, and potentially revolutionary conditions emerge, these questions need to be answered and strategically carried forward into practice. Time will again tell the significance of West Asia in a global and fracturing capitalist system marked by cyclical crises.

:::

The Trump administration has told Cuban negotiators that President Miguel Díaz-Canel must step down for meaningful progress in U.S.–Cuba talks, according to people familiar with the negotiations, the New York Times reports.

U.S. officials are reportedly seeking Díaz-Canel’s removal as a symbolic political concession while pushing Havana to open parts of its economy to American business and release political prisoners. The proposal would not target the Castro family, which still holds significant influence behind the scenes. Díaz-Canel, president since 2018, the Times reports is seen as a leader with limited real authority within Cuba’s power structure, where the military-linked conglomerate GAESA and senior Communist Party figures wield major control.

I don’t think the Cuban government is opposed to some capitalist investment from the US (done along doi moi lines for example), especially if it means easing up on sanctions. Releasing political prisoners… not great but given the circumstances you can always just keep them under surveillance and then re-arrest when Trump is gone. But the part about Diaz-Canel stepping down… that one is interesting. It’s not like he’s a hardliner sitting atop a bunch of liberals who want to replace him. I don’t think whoever would succeed him or whoever would be chosen by the National Assembly would be meaningfully less committed to the revolution and the socialist project. I’m assuming what the US is not saying here is that they want to select who it would be to replace Diaz-Canel, because they will presumably choose a gusano who will rip the heart out of the country.

Source (Drop Site News tweet)

Oh good, I was worried for a second there

Video showing Iraqi PMF fpv drone flying freely through the us embassy in Baghdad. Telegram Link. I am pretty confident it is real, it’s definitely the us embassy in the video and the weather matches. Pretty damming evidence against C-RAM being effective against fpv drones. This one was just a recon drone, the next ones will surly be armed.

Mine sweeper question

Edit.

~~Is this Bluesky comment actually true?~~

Man, Bluesky gets worse by the day.

What's the status of US mine sweepers. How many do they have? Etc.

Denmark pushes for EU-wide response on Strait of Hormuz

Denmark had yet to receive any request from the U.S. for help.

Embarrassing

Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel on Friday said the island had not received oil shipments in more than three months and was operating on solar power, natural gas and thermoelectric plants, and the government has had to postpone surgeries for tens of thousands of people.

'It's incredible how humans adapt': In UAE, war brings a new normal

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-17/in-uae-iran-attacks-bring-a-new-normal/106461914

Wow. Brave. Hard hitting article that really humanises and brings to light the realities of those suffering the most

::: spoiler excerpt

The skyline of a large city, seen from a distance. Dubai has come under frequent attacks from Iran's missiles and drones during the war. (Reuters: Amr Alfiky) A weird sense of normality in Dubai and Abu Dhabi these days sits awkwardly with the news coverage of burning buildings and reports of strikes on airports.

"It's incredible how humans adapt," says Mina Al-Obaedi, editor-in-chief of The National — a state-owned daily newspaper.

"There is still, of course, an unease. When you hear the alert, when you hear the thuds of interception and so forth, incredible unease. Nobody can take it away."

Iran war live updates: For the latest news on the Middle East crisis, read our blog.

But for the locals, expatriates and diplomats who live here, there has had to be a rapid adjustment to a new normal.

:::

Reported % increases in petrol prices Feb 28 - Mar 11, 2026:

10 most increase (high to low): Cambodia (67.81%), Vietnam (49.73%), Nigeria (35.02%), Laos (32.94%), Canada (28.36%), Pakistan (24.49%), Maldives (18.54%), Australia (18.23%), United States (16.55%), Singapore (15.69%)

10 lowest increases (low to high): Tunisia (0.12%), Rwanda (0.22%), Nicaragua (0.23%), Morocco (0.3%), Kyrgyzstan (0.33%), Georgia (0.44%), Ghana (0.48%), Barbados (0.48%), Slovenia (0.65%), Mozambique (0.77%)

Average price of 95-octane (super) petrol, USD per litre in 95 countries reporting increase. Source: How badly has the Iran war hit the global economy? The tell-tale signs which credits Global Petrol Prices | March 11, 2026

Report from a personal source:

The Gerald ford took more damage than reported during the laundry fire. Hundreds of sailors lost their berths due to the fire damage.

Fire breaks out at UAE’s Fujairah oil zone following drone attack

The al-Fujairah Government Media Office has reported that a fire broke out at the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone after the site was targeted by drones.

Fujairah is the exit node of UAE’s pipeline that bypasses Hormuz.

Trump said said he'll have "the honor of taking Cuba... I can do anything I want with it, if you want to know the truth."

49 second vid clip.

Trump's full rant on Cuba:

"I think Cuba, in its own way, tourism and everything else, it's a beautiful island, great weather. They're not in a hurricane zone, which is nice for a change, you know? They won't be asking us for money for hurricanes every week. I do believe I'll have the honor of taking Cuba. That's a big honor. Taking Cuba in some form, you know. Taking Cuba. I mean, whether I free it, take it -- I can do anything I want with it, if you want to know the truth."

https://xcancel.com/atrupar/status/2033664550646473043

He's getting more insane by the day.

At least 1 drone reported to hit the US embassy complex in Iraq. One C-RAM was seen operating.

Another KC-135 refueling aircraft is said to have declared an emergency.

Restoration of the electrical system is progressing in Cuba's capital - Prensa Latina

::: spoiler Article

Havana, March 16 (Prensa Latina) The restoration of the electrical system is progressing in the Cuban capital after the disconnection this afternoon of the National Electrical System (SEN).

According to the Havana Electric Company, as of 5:33 p.m. local time, six distribution circuits had been restored in the province, benefiting 18,160 customers (11.31 MW), which represents 2.1 percent in the city.

The entity added that two electrical substations were also incorporated and noted that the restoration will be done gradually as the conditions of the SEN allow. On the other hand, it was also reported that due to the SEN failure -at 13:54, local time-, the gas network service in the capital municipalities of Playa and Marianao is affected.

“We are working together with the electric company to restore service as quickly as possible,” the Havana gas company said on social media. Lázaro Guerra, the Director of Electricity at the Ministry of Energy and Mines, reported that following the collapse of the National Electric System (SEN), electrical microsystems are operating in various parts of the country.

The executive stated that the goal is to restore power to Nuevitas and the Carlos Manuel de Céspedes Thermoelectric Power Plant in Cienfuegos, while also noting that the causes of the SEN disconnection are still unknown. Guerra specified that Energás has one unit in service and that vital centers are being prioritized. :::

That is one big laundry fire!

Chuck Schumer

Donald Trump says he’s hoping China will help us clear the Strait of Hormuz. Are you kidding me? Donald Trump created a mess in the Middle East, and he clearly has no plan for how to end it.

https://xcancel.com/SenSchumer/status/2033664589984866371

God do I hate Schumer.

The IRGC warned Washington to evacuate all US-owned businesses in West Asia:

"We are warning the defeated US regime to evacuate all American businesses in the region. In addition, we urge the residents of areas located near the industrial facilities, in which Americans are the shareholders to leave these territories to avoid possible damage," Fars quoted the IRGC statement as saying.

It said the strikes may be carried out in the coming hours.

https://tass.com/world/2102417

Iran issued a warning to Romania:

"If Romania provides the United States with access to its bases, we will give a corresponding legal and political response," he said. "Undoubtedly, Romania will be viewed as a participant of the military aggression against Iran, and this is totally unacceptable from the point of view of the international law."

Earlier, the Digi24 TV channel said the US had asked the Romanian government to use the Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base in the east of the country for their subsequent operations against Iran. Later, it became known that Romanian President Nicusor Dan permitted to deploy US planes and servicemen at the base.

https://tass.com/world/2102387

BREAKING: The Securities and Exchange Commission is preparing a proposal to eliminate the quarterly earnings report requirement and instead give companies the option to share results twice a year, per WSJ

Not news, only speculating: This July 4th will mark the 250th anniversary of the signing of the US Declaration of Independence. It is an occasion with the potential to channel immense propaganda power. No doubt, the Trump administration has been preparing for it since their election victory in November 2024. Now, it appears to be set to coincide with one of the deepest national humiliations in living memory.

Surely they would have loved for the message to be something along the lines of "Thanks to Donald Trump, we have Made America Great Again, and it's going to remain great for 1000 years," but instead the moment will be smothered in dread.

Relatively "quiet" day for America's greatest 21st century boondoggle. Seems like Iran's demands to reopen the strait, as reported in sources wide afield, are fourfold:

Guaranteed lifting of sanctions, withdrawal of US bases, return of frozen assets and development of non-dollar trade are among them. Such approach is based on convergence with Asian powers and determines energy diplomacy under protection of defense power.** The ultimate goal of Iran is to create a new order in the Middle East**, the news agency said. Tehran expects that cooperation in the sphere of economic and security among countries of the region will substitute unilateral actions of the West and will thereby neutralize the US economic pressure completely and structurally, Tasnim reports.

per https://tass.com/world/2102351

IF all four of these come to pass, it's pretty much the end of the American imperium. We're not talking a new order in just the Middle East, it'll be a new global order. Insane we're ever contemplating these demands, but the arrogance of the Epstein Coalition has made it so the above is not the ramblings of madman, they're reasonable concessions extracted by a regional power who understands they can absolutely cripple the global economy. Outside of the removal of US bases, I think they're actually relatively easy things to grant Iran. And the American bases withdraw can be framed as a kind of "strategic retreat" to areas the American empire can defend, like Latin America. But who knows if and when they'll go for it.

https://xcancel.com/ripplebrain/status/2033644529815867433

QATAR SAYS HIT BY 14 BALLISTIC MISSILES ON MONDAY

Just for reference Qatar is the least targeted of the Gulf states, so go ahead and draw your own conclusions about the accuracy of the charts floating around

https://thepeninsulaqatar.com/article/16/03/2026/qatar-targeted-with14ballistic-missiles-drones-launched-from-iran-mod

I had to be away from keyboard to clean my house. I didn't realize I had left the tab open.

a few new things from Polish osint guy

In the evening, an Iranian kamikaze drone attacked the Royal Tulip Al-Rasheed Hotel in central Baghdad. The hotel houses the headquarters of the European Union Advisory Mission in Iraq (EUAM Iraq). Diplomats from several European and Arab countries were staying there.

An infographic on Iran's use of drones and ballistic missiles. The frequency has stabilized at 20–30 missile strikes and approximately 50 drones.

A fire at the fuel depot at Dubai International Airport has been burning since this morning.

Ukrainian news outlets report that the UAE lost a Saab GlobalEye early-warning aircraft equipped with long-range radar, the only one of its kind in the region [although I found a Saab press release from 2024 where it says the UAE bought 5+2 of them]. It was worth nearly a billion dollars and was destroyed by an Iranian drone that cost less than $20,000 [looking around it seems like it’s half a billion each].

The environmental situation in the Persian Gulf is getting worse, with charred tanker wrecks drifting in the water and spilling their fuel cargo.

US footage showing Air Force strikes on:

• a launcher/electronic warfare complex
• a follow-up strike on a previously destroyed MIM-23 Hawk air defense system
• a Khordad air defense system (the Iranian version of the Russian Buk system)
• an electronic warfare/command and control system

@SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net could we perhaps put long body text in the News Mega in a collapsible spoiler or as a pinned comment? I appreciate the effortposting, but it is a lot to scroll through every time you reload the page (on mobile at least)

We have a smart president, whereas in ⁠the past we ⁠have had dumb presidents, and I ⁠trust President Trump ⁠to get ⁠the job done

It appears Cuba is experiencing an island-wide blackout and a total disconnection of the electrical system.

Source (Drop Site News tweet)

https://archive.ph/qVFQf

Missile Stock of French Rafales Deployed In U.A.E. Depleting Rapidly

High pace of interceptions against Iranian-made drones reduces MICA missile inventory used by Rafale jets in U.A.E.

::: spoiler more

France is reportedly assessing the rapid depletion of air-to-air missiles used by Rafale fighter jets deployed in the U.A.E. during operations against Iranian-made drones and cruise missiles. According to the French newspaper La Tribune, intensive interception missions carried out in recent weeks have significantly reduced available stocks of MICA air-to-air missiles used by Rafale aircraft. French military aircraft have been participating in the defense of the U.A.E. since the regional conflict began on February 28. The deployment operates under a defense agreement between Paris and Abu Dhabi that allows France to maintain a permanent presence at Al Dhafra Air Base. Since 2016, the French presence at the base included six Rafale fighter jets. At the request of the Emiratis, the contingent was reinforced with six additional aircraft on March 4. In recent weeks, Rafale aircraft reportedly intercepted dozens of Iranian-made drones, including Shaheds, and cruise missiles using MBDA MICA missiles.

The situation has been aggravated by previous supply limitations and production delays affecting the missile program. According to La Tribune, deliveries of previously ordered MICA missiles from MBDA’s facility in Selles-Saint-Denis have been delayed by around two years. The issue has reportedly created pressure within the French defense establishment, with disagreements emerging between the General Staff and the General Directorate of Armaments, as well as between the Ministry of the Armed Forces and MBDA. French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has reportedly ordered a crisis meeting involving representatives from the General Staff, the General Directorate of Armaments, the Ministry of the Armed Forces, and MBDA to discuss possible solutions. Officials are also examining alternative weapon options to sustain air defense operations during prolonged interception missions.

One option under consideration is the older R550 Magic 2 missile. Although it was withdrawn from French service in 2020, some remaining stocks have not been destroyed. The missile is currently used on Dassault Mirage 2000-5F jets supplied by France to Ukraine against Russian Shahed drones. The missile also remains in service in several countries. Greece uses it on Mirage 2000 aircraft, while Morocco operates it on Mirage F1 fighters. Romania previously used the missile on MiG-21 LanceR aircraft before retiring them in 2023. Reports indicate that countries including Peru and Brazil may also maintain stockpiles. French defense planners are also examining longer-term responses to the increasing use of low-cost drones in combat. A future upgrade of the Rafale fighter jet, known as the Rafale F5 standard, is expected to include lightweight guided missiles carried in multi-tube launchers designed to counter drone threats. The concept, unveiled during the Paris Air Show 2025, includes guided 68 mm rockets. The Rafale F5 configuration is currently planned to enter service around 2035.

:::

FT

Donald Trump said he did not think the war would end this week, but added that it will be “wrapped up soon”.

“It won’t be long, and we’re going to have a much safer world. It’ll be wrapped up soon."

He added that the current market turmoil was a “very small price to pay” compared to allowing Tehran to acquire nuclear weapons.

"Frankly, I thought [the stock market] was going to go down much more. It’s a big chess game at a very high level. I’m dealing with very smart players."

I edited it for the quote tags.

ah sweet, man-made gambling horrors beyond my comprehension https://archive.ph/qREE5

Gamblers trying to win a bet on Polymarket are vowing to kill me if I don’t rewrite an Iran missile story

Bettors are using death threats to try to get The Times of Israel’s military correspondent to change his report on a missile impact in central Israel. This is his alarming account

::: spoiler more

On Tuesday, March 10, a massive explosion shook the city of Beit Shemesh, just outside Jerusalem, in yet another Iranian ballistic missile attack during the ongoing war. Rescue services scrambled to the scene in search of possible casualties, though as it turned out, the projectile had struck a forested area just outside the city, around 500 meters from homes. On The Times of Israel’s liveblog that day, I reported that the missile had hit an open area and no injuries were caused, citing the rescue services, as well as footage that emerged showing the massive explosion caused by the missile’s warhead. But what I thought was a seemingly minor incident during the war has turned into days of harassment and death threats against me.

The saga begins

Later Tuesday, I received an unusual email, in Hebrew, from someone named Aviv. “Regarding your Times of Israel report that described today’s launch as an ‘impact’ — Beit Shemesh Municipality and MDA (Magen David Adom) later corrected their reports to clarify that what fell was an interceptor fragment, not a full missile,” he claimed. “I’d appreciate it if you could update your article, as in its current form it does not reflect reality. Alternatively, if you have information that it was indeed a full missile that was not intercepted, I would be glad to be corrected.” I told Aviv that, from what I know from the Israeli military, the impact outside Beit Shemesh was indeed a missile warhead and not just fragments. I added: “The footage also shows a massive explosion of hundreds of kilograms of explosives from the warhead. Normally, a fragment does not produce such an explosion.” A day later, on Wednesday, I received another email, also in Hebrew, regarding the impact just outside Beit Shemesh, from someone identifying themselves as Daniel. “Sorry for reaching out without a prior introduction, but I assume we will get to know each other well,” he wrote, in a somewhat threatening manner. “I have an urgent request regarding the accuracy of your report on the missile attack on March 10. I would really appreciate a response if possible. There is an inaccurate report from you about the missile attack on March 10, and it’s causing a chain of errors,” Daniel’s email continued. “If you could reply to me tonight… you would be helping me, many others, and, of course, the State of Israel. And along the way, you would gain a good source.”

It was indeed a little strange to receive the same question, about something relatively inconsequential, from two different people within a day. But I responded, naively: “Hi Daniel, can you elaborate on what the problem is?” He replied: “In the article and in your tweet you wrote, ‘One missile struck an open area just outside Beit Shemesh.’” “However, it appears that this was a missile that was intercepted, and its debris and interceptor fragments fell at the scene. No security authority so far has confirmed that it was a missile that was not intercepted and fell in an open area,” he claimed. “If you could correct this tonight, you would be doing me and many others a great favor,” Daniel added. Why does such an inconsequential detail matter to these people, I wondered. Half an hour later, Daniel sent me another email: “If one of you could change everything to interceptor debris, or missile fragments even tonight, it would help a lot,” he persisted. I went to sleep without answering. By Thursday morning, Daniel had sent me another email. “I would appreciate an update from you as soon as possible, because in the meantime you are already being quoted in The Economist, saying that the IDF confirmed that most of the missiles on Tuesday were intercepted except for one that fell in the Beit Shemesh area,” he said, attaching a screenshot from The Economic Times, an Indian English-language business-focused news site, and not The Economist. “I ask again, if you could handle this as soon as possible, it would help us a lot. It’s really important, if possible, still this morning,” Daniel demanded. As I read through Daniel’s veiled threats, I received another email from an anonymous user: “Is the article about March 10 interception gonna get updated?” Moments later, I received a message on the Discord online platform: “In regards to March 10th. Some sources are saying all the missiles were intercepted on March 10th per IDF. Is that true?”

The Polymarket connection

Meanwhile, on X, I saw a user reply to a recent tweet of mine: “There are people saying that they have received word from you that the missile strike in Beit Shemesh on March 10th was in fact intercepted, is this true or did no such interaction occur?” Another X user responded to my post with the video showing the Iranian ballistic missile impact in Beit Shemesh with: “was there any video of the actual impact.” (Clearly, he didn’t watch the video.) Checking those X accounts, both appeared to be involved in gambling on the Polymarket betting site. As far as I now understand, the emails I received were intended to confirm whether or not a missile had hit Israel on March 10 in order to resolve a prediction on Polymarket. Polymarket is one of the largest prediction markets in the world, where users can wager their money on the likelihood of future events, using cryptocurrency, debit or credit cards, and bank transfers. However, there are accusations that the site has been plagued by manipulation and insider trading. The event that these people had bet on was “Iran strikes Israel on…?” More than 14 million dollars had been wagered on March 10. The rules of the bet state: “This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to ‘No’.” However, there is a clause: “Missiles or drones that are intercepted… will not be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.”

My minor report on a missile striking an open area was now in the middle of a betting war, with those who had bet “No” on an Iranian strike on Israel on March 10 demanding I change my article to ensure they would win big. More emails arrived in my inbox. “When will you update the article?” one was titled. The email had no text content, only an image — a screenshot of my initial interaction with Daniel. Except it did not show my actual response to Daniel, but a fabricated message that I had not written. “Hi Daniel, Thank you for noticing, I checked with the IDF Spokesperson and it was indeed intercepted. I sent it now for editing, it will be fixed shortly,” I supposedly wrote. (To be clear, I wrote no such thing.) I then received a WhatsApp message from someone named Shaked: “Can I ask one question about the impact in Beit Shemesh on the 10th?” Meanwhile, I saw a reply on X to a recent post of mine, with the same fake screenshot of my email exchange with Daniel: “There’s someone quoting that you replied to their email about making corrections to the below news article about all missile attacks being intercepted by Israel on March 10th. Is this actually true? Are we going to make this correction?” By this point, it was clear to me why these people were asking about the missile impact, and I took to X and told the gamblers to get a better hobby. This did not stop them.

A colleague makes contact

A few hours later, a colleague from another media outlet messaged me. He said that someone he knew asked him to ask me to change the report on the missile impact in Beit Shemesh, and that it would be “negligible” for me if I did make the change. The journalist had no idea why his acquaintance was demanding the change to the article until I told him what I understood was going on. He then confronted the acquaintance, who admitted to placing bets on Polymarket and confirmed my theory. Going further, the acquaintance even offered the journalist compensation, from his winnings, if he managed to convince me to change my report.

The threats escalate

After a quiet weekend, things escalated further. Shortly after midnight between Saturday and Sunday, I started to receive threatening messages in Hebrew on WhatsApp from someone called Haim. “You have exactly half an hour to correct your attempt at influence,” he wrote. “Despite the fact that you received countless inquiries — you insist on leaving it that way.” “If you do not correct this by 01:00 Israel time today, March 15, you are bringing upon yourself damage you have never imagined you would suffer,” he threatened, in a very lengthy message. Haim also attempted to call me via WhatsApp multiple times during the night, before sending me more messages. “You have no idea how much you’ve put yourself at risk. Today is the most significant day of your career. You have two choices: either believe that we have the capabilities, and after you make us lose $900,000 we will invest no less than that to finish you. Or end this with money in your pocket, and also earn back the life you had until now.” After I didn’t respond, as I was asleep, Haim sent me another series of messages: “You are choosing to go to war knowing that you will lose your life as you’ve grown accustomed to it — for nothing.” On Sunday morning, he messaged me again: “You have exactly a few hours left to fix your attempt at influencing [the market]. It would be stupid of you to ignore this.” :::

cont'd in response

Them filming it like it's AI is part of an all-encompassing psyop to get people to discount footage on social media.

https://xcancel.com/netanyahu/status/2033515975379911114

Weird loopy GPS spoofy stuff continues over Saudi Arabia and UAE.

No way to know what's actually going anywhere anymore, in terms of plane movements.

The current oddity I'm staring at is a "jet" going straight toward Iran in the gulf. Maybe they are drones and I was just wrong about which side was flying them?

Edit: okay an Airbus A380 definitely isn't going mach 1.45; there are actual things broadcasting fake ADS-B signals in addition to the GPS weirdness. Information war is so much fun.

FT update

Trump says White House ‘shocked’ by extent of Iran’s response

President Trump on Monday acknowledged publicly that his administration was caught off guard by the extent of Iran’s response to the US and Israel’s offensive.

“They hit Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait,” the US president said at a news conference Monday. “Nobody expected that. We were shocked.”

Trump administration officials have previously said they were not surprised by Iran’s response. But in the weeks ahead of the war, Trump had downplayed Iran’s capacity to retaliate against any US strikes.

Heh. Without realizing it - Trump talking to himself in public.

Ansarallah has announced this week end (article is larger and mainly about Witkoff being stonewalled) that "a zero hour" could be declared soon:

"All options are on the table,” Al-Bukhaiti told RT Arabic. “If we are compelled to use the Bab al Mandeb card, we will use this in a flexible manner by targeting all the countries involved in the aggression against Lebanon and Iran."

They might close al-Mandab, on top of - I imagine - hitting the entity.

You know who I miss, and who'd make the picture complete right now ?

Also, talking of Ansarallah, they recently published this absolute banger (though it does include AI imagery).

Part of a CNN update. Emphasis mine.

Trump, even as he demands support from allies, also claimed the US doesn’t require their help.

“I don’t do a hard sell on them, because my attitude is, we don’t need anybody. We’re the strongest nation in the world. We have the strongest military, by far, in the world. We don’t need them. But it’s interesting: I’m almost doing it in some cases, not because we need them, but because I want to find out how they react."

Situation on the Straight of Hormuz is that its now more of a "Toll Road of Hormuz" , with Iran having pressumably mined it in the Center . Ships seem to now Negotiate passage then Sailing near Iranian Navy HQ Bandar Abbas and the namesake Hormuz Island , following along close the Iranian coast into the Ocean.

Update on the Hormuz Coalition (Mon, March 16):

• Australia: REJECTED
• Canada: REJECTED
• China: NO RESPONSE
• France: REJECTED
• Germany: REJECTED
• Italy: REJECTED
• Japan: REJECTED
• Netherlands: NO RESPONSE
• Norway: REJECTED
• South Korea: NO CONFIRMATION
• Spain: REJECTED
• UK: REJECTED

https://bsky.app/profile/newseye.bsky.social/post/3mh63vwfodc2m

Note. The list is ~7 hours old. I sorted it to be alphabetical. And I converted THE FIRST LINE FROM ALL CAPS to sanity.

One of the sources, a senior Iranian official told Drop Site the U.S. outreach indicates that the Trump administration underestimated Iran’s resolve and is seeking an offramp.

“Many direct and indirect requests for a ceasefire have been coming from the U.S.” over the past week, said the senior Iranian official.

“Now that they’ve seen the Iranian side isn’t responding to those requests, they’re trying to make up for their embarrassment by twisting the narrative in the media.”

Iranian Officials Say They Have Been Ignoring Witkoff's Private Requests to Talk

In response to request for comment, a White House spokesperson sent Drop Site the following: “The radical, left-wing Drop Site News is clearly carrying water for the Iranian terrorist regime — and reports like these based on pure fiction and citing unnamed anonymous sources should be discarded immediately. Iran feeds this fake news media outlet propaganda and they publish it as fact, which is abhorrent, America Last behavior. Operation Epic Fury will continue unabated until President Trump, as Commander-in-Chief, determines that the goals of Operation Epic Fury, including for Iran to no longer pose a military threat, have been fully realized.”

Iran’s top security official [Ali Larijani] addressing muslims all around the world:

In the name of God, Muslims of the world and Islamic governments,

🔹 1. Iran was confronted with a deceptive American-Zionist aggression while negotiations were underway, the aim of which was to break up Iran. They martyred the great leader of the Islamic Revolution, a number of ordinary people, and military commanders. As a result, they were met with the national and Islamic resistance of the Iranian people.

🔹 2. You know that, except in rare cases—and even then only on the political level—not one of the Islamic governments came to the aid of the Iranian nation.

Yet the Iranian people, with strong determination, suppressed the wicked enemy, to the point that today the enemy does not know how to escape this strategic deadlock.

🔹 3. Iran will continue on the path of resistance against the greater and lesser Satan (America and Israel [sic]), but is the behavior of Islamic governments not in contradiction with the words of the Prophet (peace be upon him), who said: “If you do not respond to the cry of a Muslim, you are not a Muslim”? What kind of Islam is this?!

🔹 4. Some countries went even further and said that because Iran targeted American bases and American and Israeli [sic] interests in those countries, Iran is therefore our enemy! Should Iran simply stand by while it is attacked from American bases in your countries?! They make excuses. On one side of today’s battle are America and Israel [sic], and on the other side are Muslim Iran and the forces of resistance. Which side are you on?

🔹 5. Think about the future of the Islamic world. You know America will never be loyal to you, and Israel is your enemy. Take a moment to think about yourselves and the future of the region. Iran wishes you well and does not seek dominance over you.

🔹 6. The unity of the Islamic ummah, with all its strength, can provide and guarantee security, progress, and independence for all countries.

from https://xcancel.com/AryJeay/status/2033556608437870946

https://xcancel.com/TankerTrackers/status/2033500284211626403

During the wee hours of 2026-03-15, our lovely Moon was at her Waning Crescent phase, providing only 12-16% of visible illumination. Combined with an opening in the weather, we were able to see all of the vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz. Their decks are always fully lit for safety reasons.

1. Full view.
2. Dubai anchorage. This is actually normal.
3. Normal flaring from the world's largest gas field shared between Iran and Qatar.
4. Strait of Hormuz showing nothing in transit.

(there's 3 more pictures in the post, I'm not adding them to not make the comment too long)

The Guardian update

Donald Trump has said he doesn’t know if Iran’s new supreme leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei is alive or dead.

Trump told reporters during a White House event...

"A lot of people are saying that he’s badly disfigured. They’re saying that he lost his leg, and he’s been hurt very badly. Other people are saying he’s dead."

The US president pointed to the fact that the Ayatollah hasn’t appeared in public since becoming Iran’s supreme leader eight days ago. Trump said “he’d spew hate from his chair,” but “this one we haven’t seen at all.”

"We don’t know who their leader is. We have people wanting to negotiate. We have no idea who they are."

I edited it so I could use quote tags.

Bullish bets on the US Dollar are skyrocketing:

1-month risk reversals of the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index are up to 92 basis points, the highest since November 2022.

This measures the difference in demand between bullish and bearish Dollar options.

By comparison, in January, this metric was at -90 basis points, marking one of the sharpest turnarounds on record.

This means traders are now paying the largest premium for option bets on Dollar strength in over 3 years.

Surging oil prices, which are fueling rising US inflation expectations, are primarily behind the move.

Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is trading at the highest level in 3 months.

The US Dollar is seeing strong demand for the first time in months.

BREAKING: US claims it allows Iranian oil tankers to transit Hormuz to maintain global supply

https://xcancel.com/AJENews/status/2033526281636106721

Lol ok. We've reached deeper levels of 🌽

Al Jazeera update

More from Trump’s news conference

• Additional strikes continue from all directions every single hour on Iran.
• We destroyed everything on Kharg Island except the area where the oil is – we left the pipes.
• For purposes of someday rebuilding that country, I guess we did the right thing, but it may not stay that way.
• More than 30 mine-laying Iranian ships have been destroyed.
• We strongly encourage other nations whose economies depend on the Strait of Hormuz far more than ours – we want them to come and help us with the strait.

On US Strategic bomber missions:

There are now 18x Strategic Bombers at RAF Fairford in the UK, 12x B-1Bs and 6x B-52Hs. They seem to be doing 2x missions a day from there, of 2-4x bombers.

The B-1Bs seem to have taken over the "bunker busting" mission from the B-2s, being armed with 2000lb GBU-31 JDAMs with BLU-109 warheads. One B-1B can carry up to 24x GBU-31s. These munitions are used to entomb deep mountainous facilities by collapsing entrances and exits, and can also fully penetrate shallower bunkers/underground facilities.

The B-52Hs seem to have taken over the cruise missile mission from the US Navy, B-52Hs being heavily loaded with AGM-158 JASSM series cruise missiles. One B-52H can load up to 20 JASSMs, which can have a range of over 575 miles and a two way datalink to hit moving targets/retarget in flight, as well as hit stationary targets in the latest variants. B-52Hs have been pictured with loads of 18, and a full load of 20 JASSMs. 6x under each wing, and 8x on an internal rotary launcher for the latter. The B-52H has a radar cross section 10-100x larger than the B-1B depending on angle/aspect, which is probably why it's not being armed with JDAMs and being armed with cruise missiles. Due to Iran's large inventory of pop up SAMs, the US will probably stick to only having B-1Bs and B-2s on occasion enter Iranian airspace for the near future.

B-52H with 18x JASSM:

The US is sending more AEW&C (Airborne Early Warning and Control) aircraft towards the Middle East, 4x E-2D Advanced Hawkeye aircraft. With 6x E-3G Sentry AWACS aircraft already in the Middle East, the US can't send more E-3Gs without compromising readiness in the Pacific and Alaska. So they're sending more E-2Ds, that will operate from land. E-2Ds usually operate from aircraft carriers. The US already has two squadrons of E-2Ds in the Middle East from their two aircraft carriers there. With Australia also sending a E-7 Wedgetail, it shows just how much Airborne Early Warning is actually needed, both in defence (detecting low flying incoming one way attack drones and cruise missiles), airspace management and deconfliction, and to manage offensive strikes. The mission (airborne moving target indication) clearly cannot be done from space, as evidenced by just how many AEW aircraft are currently in the Middle East. Expect the US to heavily invest in the E-7 Wedgetail programme in future, after almost cancelling it. China is also heavily invested in this area, with multiple different aircraft types and modern sensors.

Source on flight tracking, Armchair Admiral on X/Twitter

British oil facility in the Majnoon oil field southern Iraq was targeted

https://t.me/nayaforiraq/60502

JPMorgan downgraded traditional software companies because of "AI disruption". This will hit some private credit companies like Blue Own and Blackstone that are lending heavily to traditional software companies and to AI companies - the very reason for those traditional software companies getting downgraded. I still believe that private credit will be the first sector that cracks.

Meanwhile, oil futures are trading below $100, but actual physical oil is changing hands at ~$150.

NYT update

President Trump, who pressed Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, about why the United States could not immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz during an Oval Office meeting last week, uses his remarks to assert that he knew all along that the oil route could become a challenge. “I knew about the strait — that it would be a weapon, which I predicted a long time ago,” Trump said.

Be careful; employees, people, and workers should stay away from and evacuate American commercial and industrial areas.

Urgent warning!

Employees of listed American companies are asked to leave these areas immediately.

These areas will soon be targeted by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Leave these areas quickly, and people in the area should stay away from these American companies.

T.me/Iranian_Militarism

I thought all those slow circling "passenger jets" over critical infrastructure were drones loitering and spoofing ADS-B signals to make somebody hesitate a second before firing on them, since I saw one descend right around the time the industrial area in fujairah got struck. I assumed the boat concentrations were warships that were spoofing dense AIS signals to give themselves some room to operate; I assume I wouldn't want someone to plan a route into my carrier group, and periodic pings from a different real ship would provide that while still being hard to consistently track.

I'm pretty sure I was wrong; it's been hours there's still several of those weird concentrated ADS-B and AIS signals, and I haven't seen news of additional strikes. It may be the result of GPS jamming instead.

In that case, those concentrations would be radio broadcasters on the ground/at sea/in the air that are sending very loud fake time signals to make GPS receivers calculate incorrect positioning.

@Dessa@hexbear.net @miz@hexbear.net @hotcouchguy@hexbear.net

FT update

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards has urged the evacuation of US-owned industrial plants in the Middle East, saying they will be attacked “in the coming hours”. The IRGC urged the US to evacuate industrial sites and said people living near factories in which the US has stakes should leave the area.

The Guardian update

Sri Lanka has decided to close government offices, universities and schools on every Wednesday as a part of measures to save energy and manage a potential fuel crisis arising from the US-Israeli war with Iran. The move came a day after the government imposed a strict fuel rationing system aimed at preventing panic buying. Bangladesh brought in similar restrictions on 6 March, introducing daily limits on fuel sales amid reports of panic buying.

Sri Lanka faced a massive fuel shortage for months that sparked huge protests in 2022 and the eventual ousting of former president Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who is widely seen as having driven the country into its worst economic crisis since independence in 1948.

Holy shit first.

This never happens, there's too much news and I'm only criminally online, not terminally. I'd like to thank the haters and the losers who said it wasn't possible. It made this catharsis much sweeter after years of crying myself to sleep.

Not explicitly news related but I hope this is okay since I think a lot of fellow newsheads would like to know that Geopolitical Economy Hour apparently moved to Radhika Desai's own channel: https://youtube.com/@raddesai. I wondered why they seemingly stopped making episodes on ~~Multipolarista~~ Geopolitical Economy Report. The latest episode talks a bit about whether we're experiencing World War 3 or if this is "merely" the deaththroes of imperialism. Even though the super powers aren't in direct conflict with each other (even though they kind of are when NATO troops are basically doing everything but pulling the trigger on Western missiles firing into Russia), the current conflicts are clearly about attempting to encircle China before a direct confrontation, especially cutting off their oil imports and disrupting peaceful development of the BRI. It's hard to imagine what else to call a conflict clearly intended to seize control of Eurasia, and in my opinion Ukraine and West Asia are just fronts in the same conflict. There was an article from the late 90's or early 2000's by Subcommandant Marcos that someone posted here somewhere that argued a similar case about the First Cold War. Curious what others think or if it's a distinction without a difference. There's also the question Desai raises about every world war changing the world financial system, and whether the bear trap the US walked face first into with Iran making the energy markets scream has laid the conditions for that shift to begin.

Okay my meme post aside, I wanted to compliment you on this short essay summary, particularly where you talk about Trump reaching the point of being unable to simply speak things into existence. Reminds me of the quote by either Ansar Allah or Iran, can't remember (and wow Google is garbage, can't find it), "We are not within the circle of countries which you can dictate to." It's incredible, in a sublime horror way, that his dementia addled brain can just fire off a tweet and suddenly half the world begins working to make it so. So glad there's REAL and undeniable evidence to the contrary that such putrid power is undefeatable.

reposting the Israeli censorship article, since it was towards the end of last thread (https://hexbear.net/comment/7006954, https://www.972mag.com/israel-media-censorship-iran-war/ (archivers failed unfortunately))

‘Our coverage is not truthful’: How Israel is censoring reporting on the war

Barred from publishing details of Iranian missile impacts or interceptions, local and international journalists are struggling to tell the full story.

::: spoiler more

Since the start of the war with Iran, the Israeli military has imposed strict censorship regulations on local and international media outlets operating inside the country, severely impeding journalists’ ability to cover the situation on the ground. Reporters and networks are prohibited from publishing the precise location of Iranian missile impacts, or even filming or photographing the extent of the damage in a way that could give away the location — restrictions designed, in the words of the army’s chief censor Col. Netanel Kula, “to prevent assistance to the enemy during wartime.” Outside of wartime, Israeli law already gives the military censor the authority to prevent certain information from being published, even retroactively. This can include aspects of Israel’s arms deals or intelligence activities, among other security-related topics.

only democracy in the middle east folks

But just as it did during the “12-Day War” last June, the censor has tightened its restrictions amid the current U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. The police have already detained several journalists it deemed to be violating these censorship regulations. In an unclassified document published on March 5, Kula instructed journalists to submit anything related to the following topics to the censor for review prior to publication: operational matters, intelligence, defensive preparedness, impact sites in Israel, armament management (including munitions and interceptor stockpiles, aircraft and air defense systems readiness, and the employment and use of unique and classified weaponry), and operational vulnerabilities in defense and offense. “Consideration must also be given to the publication of visual materials, such as photographs and videos, which must also be submitted for prior review,” Kula added. These restrictions have created some absurd situations for journalists. In one case known to +972 Magazine, an Iranian missile hit its target while fragments struck a nearby educational facility. Yet the media was only allowed to report on the latter, without being able to even mention the former or inspect the damage. In another case, journalists were documenting damage to a residential building when a man who likely worked for a security agency told police to instruct the journalists there not to film the actual target of the strike, which was behind them. The officer replied that the journalists would not have noticed it if they were not told, since most of the damage was to the civilian building.

Several senior staff members in international media organizations operating in Israel told +972 that the censor’s restrictions have made it difficult to maintain normal reporting routines. One example concerns live feeds of wide shots from cities like Tel Aviv and Jerusalem that international news agencies provide for use by broadcasters worldwide. During Iranian missile attacks, the agencies are prohibited from showing where Israeli interceptor missiles are launched from, meaning they must either cut the broadcast or tilt the camera downward toward the street so the skyline is not visible. A senior figure at one news agency said that after cutting the live feed, they sometimes send footage of incoming missiles and interceptions to the censor for approval. The censor has barred several of these clips from publication, including a failed interception and a missile fragment continuing its trajectory. The censor has also rejected still photographs showing interceptor launches, including long-exposure nighttime images that do not reveal precise locations. “It’s hard to understand what is actually happening,” a senior manager at a foreign media outlet working in Israel explained. “In a lot of cases, we have official reports that there were no strikes or damage only to discover later that a target was hit. We can’t report or confirm so we don’t know if it happened or not.” “We have a partial understanding of the reality on the ground,” the senior manager admitted. “Our coverage of the war is not truthful.”

‘Masked security personnel told me what not to film’

Criticism of the tightened censorship regulations is not limited to the international media. On the evening of March 11, Hezbollah launched its most intense volley of rocket fire since the start of the Iran war; Israeli media outlets knew about this in advance, but were barred from publishing the story. “The censor rejected information I had this evening about the possibility that Hezbollah may try to intensify its fire toward Israel,” Channel 12’s Nitzan Shapira wrote that night. “Later in the evening, the same information was published on CNN, and only then were we able to report it. “This is exactly the problem with this conduct,” he continued. “Instead of residents of the State of Israel receiving real-time information that could help them prepare and get ready in a basic way, the information was censored, and the Israeli public finds itself once again getting updated by American media outlets. An absurd situation.” The following morning, the IDF Spokesperson apologized, saying it was “wrong not to update the public.”

very funny for settlers to be screwed over by their own government

As in the previous Iran war, journalists have also been detained in the course of their work. Two journalists from CNN Türk were briefly detained while broadcasting live near the Kirya, Israel’s military headquarters in Tel Aviv. At one missile impact site in Ramat Gan, east of Tel Aviv, I saw members of the local civilian security squad — one of hundreds of armed volunteer groups that the Israeli government has established since the October 7 attacks to expand its policing effort — checking journalists’ credentials, even though police had already cleared them. “Let’s make sure there are no spies here,” the squad commander called out to his colleagues. The commander acknowledged, however, that they have no control over ordinary citizens filming on their phones and spreading footage on social media. At another impact site in central Israel last week, a man claiming to be a police volunteer demanded to see journalists’ press credentials. After identifying a Palestinian resident of East Jerusalem who works for a foreign network, he accused him — without evidence — of transmitting the locations of missile strikes. During the war last summer, the right-wing activist known as “The Shadow” and members of his civilian security squad unlawfully detained foreign and Palestinian journalists at an impact site in Tel Aviv. Authorities later instructed them not to interfere with journalists.

“After two and a half years of war, including the war with Iran in the summer, you already have experience of what you can and can’t document, and what the censor will reject,” another journalist from an international outlet explained. “Last summer, I published a report from an impact site but the censor called and ordered us to take it down,” the journalist continued. “So now, when I arrive at the scene of a missile impact, almost automatically I document and report only what I know is allowed.” One morning during this war, the journalist added, “I arrived at one of the impact sites hit overnight in central Israel, and masked security personnel came and told me what not to film.” As a result of the restrictions, journalists are having to find creative ways to get information out to the public. On the evening of March 10, Hezbollah fired two rockets into Israel; while media outlets were barred from publishing the locations of the impacts, some, including Ynet, quoted a statement by Hezbollah saying they had targeted a satellite station near Beit Shemesh, and included a video that Hezbollah shared which had been taken from social media. Some journalists have noted, however, that the censorship seems less strict this time than during the 12-Day War last summer, and that the mood in the street is somewhat different — perhaps because the Iranian strikes have resulted in fewer Israeli casualties.

“Last year, the public mood seemed a little more hostile at one point, with right-wing activists claiming that Al Jazeera and others were broadcasting locations that they shouldn’t be,” a journalist working for an international media outlet told +972. “I remember police checking journalists’ ID cards after we filmed the aftermath of a strike because they were provoked by a right-wing activist. But I didn’t see anything like that this time.”

maybe because, as the guy explained above, journalists have already been cowed into not even trying to film stuff that could get them into trouble

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Israel [sic] launches 'targeted' ground invasion of south Lebanon | The Cradle

Israeli [sic] Defense Minister Israel Katz said him and Netanyahu have ordered troops to do in south Lebanon ‘just as was done in Rafah and Beit Hanoun’ in Gaza

I can't believe you locked the thread right when I was going to say stupid things like usual. The nerve.